{
  "$schema": "https://clearmarket.fyi/schema/signal/v1.json",
  "record_id": "CMSIG2026090104",
  "record_slug": "oct-1-shutdown-kalshi-3-2026-09-01",
  "schema_version": "v0.2.0",
  "provenance_version": "0.2.0",
  "published_at": "2026-09-01T18:28:00.024Z",
  "semantic_title": "Government shutdown on October 1 stays a very long shot",
  "telemetry": "Kalshi 3%",
  "headline": "Oct 1 shutdown: Kalshi 3%",
  "category_tag": "MOMENTUM_REPRICING",
  "secondary_tags": [],
  "detection_path": "news_cycle",
  "pre_news_classification": "lagging",
  "status": {
    "state": "live",
    "as_of": "2026-09-05",
    "outcome": null,
    "outcome_basis": null,
    "final_price": null,
    "resolved_at": null
  },
  "target_event_id": "CM-EVT-TMV1LTRGY0",
  "target_event_slug": "kxgovtshutdown-26oct01",
  "event_question": "Will there be a government shutdown on October 1, 2026?",
  "linked_event_ids": [],
  "primary_market": {
    "platform": "kalshi",
    "platform_market_id": "KXGOVTSHUTDOWN-26OCT01",
    "question_raw": "Will the US government be shut down on Oct 1, 2026?",
    "current_price": 0.03,
    "volume_24h_usd": 944.26,
    "arbitration_model": "kalshi_staff",
    "resolution_source": "Office of Management and Budget",
    "resolves_at": "2026-10-02T14:00:00Z"
  },
  "related_markets": [],
  "bullets": [
    "The Kalshi contract on a government shutdown beginning October 1 sits at just 3%, near-zero odds.",
    "The House passage of a CR through December 11 directly resolves the near-term shutdown risk; the Kalshi price is consistent with the legislative outcome.",
    "The funding patch delays the next deadline to mid-December, shifting any shutdown risk well past the November midterms.",
    "Resolution source is the Office of Management and Budget; the contract settles on whether agencies actually lose funding on October 1, not on Congressional vote outcome."
  ],
  "atomic_claims": [
    {
      "type": "news_event",
      "field_provenance": {
        "story": {
          "tier": "mediated",
          "method": "exa_search",
          "source": "Politico",
          "source_url": "https://www.politico.com/news/2026/09/01/congress-funding-patch-shutdown-midterms-01060046",
          "retrieved_at": "2026-09-02T12:29:02+00:00"
        }
      },
      "significance": {
        "threshold": 5,
        "threshold_unit": "rank",
        "passed": true,
        "reason": "surfaced in the daily Exa news-cycle scan; mechanically matched to an active kalshi market"
      },
      "story": "Congress passed a continuing resolution funding federal agencies through December 11, averting an October shutdown ahead of November midterm elections.",
      "publisher": "Politico",
      "published_at": "2026-09-01T18:28:00.024Z",
      "source_url": "https://www.politico.com/news/2026/09/01/congress-funding-patch-shutdown-midterms-01060046"
    },
    {
      "type": "pm_response",
      "field_provenance": {
        "notes": {
          "tier": "editorial",
          "method": "llm_judge_cm_signal_v1"
        }
      },
      "notes": "Kalshi at 3% is tracking the legislative reality; the contract resolves via OMB determination, not Congressional vote count."
    }
  ],
  "sources": [
    {
      "label": "Politico: Congress clears funding patch to avert pre-election shutdown",
      "url": "https://www.politico.com/news/2026/09/01/congress-funding-patch-shutdown-midterms-01060046",
      "published_at": "2026-09-01T18:28:00.024Z",
      "retrieved_at": "2026-09-02T12:29:02+00:00"
    }
  ],
  "field_provenance": {
    "pm_data": "kalshi_api",
    "news_context": "exa_search",
    "editorial_judgment": "cm_signal_llm_judge"
  },
  "canonical_urls": {
    "html": "https://clearmarket.fyi/signals/oct-1-shutdown-kalshi-3-2026-09-01/",
    "json": "https://clearmarket.fyi/signals/oct-1-shutdown-kalshi-3-2026-09-01.json"
  },
  "license": "https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/",
  "_provenance_registry": {
    "direct": "Unaltered extraction from primary venue/source API (e.g., polymarket_clob_api, kalshi_api, BLS, FRED). Highest trust tier.",
    "mediated": "Information fetched via grounded agentic retrieval (e.g., perplexity_grounded). MUST carry source_url to the underlying primary source.",
    "derived": "Algorithmic computation from listed inputs. Chain only as fresh as the oldest input timestamp (see as_of).",
    "editorial": "Interpretive classification produced by a versioned LLM prompt template (prompts auditable in github.com/JDSource/clearmarket/prompts)."
  },
  "_provenance_canonical": "https://clearmarket.fyi/schema/provenance/v1"
}