{
  "$schema": "https://clearmarket.fyi/schema/signal/v1.json",
  "record_id": "CMSIG2026101005",
  "record_slug": "oct-2026-nonfarm-payrolls-implied-40k-50k-prediction-market-2026-10-10",
  "schema_version": "v0.2.0",
  "provenance_version": "0.2.0",
  "published_at": "2026-10-10T00:00:00.000Z",
  "semantic_title": "October payroll adds priced in the 40K to 50K range",
  "telemetry": "Kalshi ladder",
  "headline": "Oct 2026 nonfarm payrolls implied 40K-50K: prediction market",
  "category_tag": "MOMENTUM_REPRICING",
  "secondary_tags": [],
  "detection_path": "news_cycle",
  "pre_news_classification": "concurrent",
  "status": {
    "state": "live",
    "as_of": "2026-10-21",
    "outcome": null,
    "outcome_basis": null,
    "final_price": null,
    "resolved_at": null
  },
  "target_event_id": "CM-EVT-6CSLHX0K76",
  "target_event_slug": "kxpayrolls-26oct",
  "event_question": "October 2026 nonfarm payrolls added",
  "linked_event_ids": [],
  "primary_market": {
    "platform": "kalshi",
    "platform_market_id": "KXPAYROLLS-26OCT-T50000",
    "question_raw": "Will above 50000 jobs be added in October 2026?",
    "current_price": 0.49,
    "volume_24h_usd": 9.43,
    "arbitration_model": "kalshi_staff",
    "resolution_source": "BLS",
    "resolves_at": "2027-02-05T15:00:00Z"
  },
  "related_markets": [],
  "bullets": [
    "The ladder implies October payroll adds in the 40,000-50,000 range: 55% above 40,000 but only 49% above 50,000, reflecting persistent labor market weakness.",
    "September's 29,000 print against a 90,000 forecast anchors the subdued baseline; the market is not pricing a sharp bounce toward prior trend levels.",
    "With 29% probability above 100,000 and 36% above 90,000, the ladder treats a return to pre-miss levels in October as a minority outcome.",
    "Resolution is via the Bureau of Labor Statistics October employment situation report; steep downward revisions in September add uncertainty to the October baseline."
  ],
  "atomic_claims": [
    {
      "type": "news_event",
      "field_provenance": {
        "story": {
          "tier": "mediated",
          "method": "exa_search",
          "source": "5thnews.com",
          "source_url": "https://www.5thnews.com/finance/us-economy-added-29000-jobs-in-september-a-slower-pace-than-expected/",
          "retrieved_at": "2026-10-12T07:49:04+00:00"
        }
      },
      "significance": {
        "threshold": 5,
        "threshold_unit": "rank",
        "passed": true,
        "reason": "surfaced in the daily Exa news-cycle scan; mechanically matched to an active kalshi market"
      },
      "story": "The US economy added only 29,000 jobs in September, well below the 90,000 estimate, signaling a weakening labor market.",
      "publisher": "5thnews.com",
      "published_at": "2026-10-10T00:00:00.000Z",
      "source_url": "https://www.5thnews.com/finance/us-economy-added-29000-jobs-in-september-a-slower-pace-than-expected/"
    },
    {
      "type": "pm_response",
      "field_provenance": {
        "notes": {
          "tier": "editorial",
          "method": "llm_judge_cm_signal_v1"
        }
      },
      "notes": "The prediction market ladder on October payrolls is the only active contract with current pricing directly relevant to the September jobs miss narrative."
    }
  ],
  "sources": [
    {
      "label": "5thnews.com: US economy added 29,000 jobs in September, a slower pace than expected",
      "url": "https://www.5thnews.com/finance/us-economy-added-29000-jobs-in-september-a-slower-pace-than-expected/",
      "published_at": "2026-10-10T00:00:00.000Z",
      "retrieved_at": "2026-10-12T07:49:04+00:00"
    }
  ],
  "field_provenance": {
    "pm_data": "kalshi_api",
    "news_context": "exa_search",
    "editorial_judgment": "cm_signal_llm_judge"
  },
  "canonical_urls": {
    "html": "https://clearmarket.fyi/signals/oct-2026-nonfarm-payrolls-implied-40k-50k-prediction-market-2026-10-10/",
    "json": "https://clearmarket.fyi/signals/oct-2026-nonfarm-payrolls-implied-40k-50k-prediction-market-2026-10-10.json"
  },
  "license": "https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/",
  "_provenance_registry": {
    "direct": "Unaltered extraction from primary venue/source API (e.g., polymarket_clob_api, kalshi_api, BLS, FRED). Highest trust tier.",
    "mediated": "Information fetched via grounded agentic retrieval (e.g., perplexity_grounded). MUST carry source_url to the underlying primary source.",
    "derived": "Algorithmic computation from listed inputs. Chain only as fresh as the oldest input timestamp (see as_of).",
    "editorial": "Interpretive classification produced by a versioned LLM prompt template (prompts auditable in github.com/JDSource/clearmarket/prompts)."
  },
  "_provenance_canonical": "https://clearmarket.fyi/schema/provenance/v1"
}