{
  "$schema": "https://clearmarket.fyi/schema/signal/v1.json",
  "record_id": "CMSIG2026100202",
  "record_slug": "oct-2026-nonfarm-payrolls-ladder-implies-50k-60k-range-2026-10-02",
  "schema_version": "v0.2.0",
  "provenance_version": "0.2.0",
  "published_at": "2026-10-02T00:00:00.000Z",
  "semantic_title": "October payrolls implied range holds at 50K-60K",
  "telemetry": "Kalshi ladder",
  "headline": "Oct 2026 nonfarm payrolls: ladder implies 50K-60K range",
  "category_tag": "MOMENTUM_REPRICING",
  "secondary_tags": [],
  "detection_path": "news_cycle",
  "pre_news_classification": "concurrent",
  "status": {
    "state": "live",
    "as_of": "2026-10-02",
    "outcome": null,
    "outcome_basis": null,
    "final_price": null,
    "resolved_at": null
  },
  "target_event_id": "CM-EVT-6CSLHX0K76",
  "target_event_slug": "kxpayrolls-26oct",
  "event_question": "October 2026 nonfarm payroll change",
  "linked_event_ids": [],
  "primary_market": {
    "platform": "kalshi",
    "platform_market_id": "KXPAYROLLS-26OCT-T60000",
    "question_raw": "Will above 60000 jobs be added in October 2026?",
    "current_price": 0.46,
    "volume_24h_usd": 15.2,
    "arbitration_model": "kalshi_staff",
    "resolution_source": "BLS",
    "resolves_at": "2027-02-05T15:00:00Z"
  },
  "related_markets": [],
  "bullets": [
    "The payroll ladder prices the October 2026 nonfarm change in the 50,000-60,000 range: 67% above 30K, 60% above 40K, dropping to 46% above 60K.",
    "September's 29,000 print missed estimates sharply; the ladder suggests markets expect a modest October rebound but not a return to strong growth.",
    "The sharp right-tail drop, only 22% above 100K and 19% above 125K, indicates very low market confidence in a strong October recovery.",
    "The September positive-growth contract (CM-EVT-MZQH465PC3) saw trading volume surge roughly 9,950 times day-over-day, signaling intense fresh attention on the jobs theme heading into October."
  ],
  "atomic_claims": [
    {
      "type": "news_event",
      "field_provenance": {
        "story": {
          "tier": "mediated",
          "method": "exa_search",
          "source": "lse.co.uk",
          "source_url": "https://www.lse.co.uk/news/instant-view-soft-september-jobs-report-sends-markets-higher-u26fsa0o1v5oiw3.html",
          "retrieved_at": "2026-10-02T14:25:25+00:00"
        }
      },
      "significance": {
        "threshold": 5,
        "threshold_unit": "rank",
        "passed": true,
        "reason": "surfaced in the daily Exa news-cycle scan; mechanically matched to an active kalshi market"
      },
      "story": "The September jobs report showed only 29,000 payrolls added, well below estimates, sending stocks and bonds higher and cooling Fed rate-hike expectations.",
      "publisher": "lse.co.uk",
      "published_at": "2026-10-02T00:00:00.000Z",
      "source_url": "https://www.lse.co.uk/news/instant-view-soft-september-jobs-report-sends-markets-higher-u26fsa0o1v5oiw3.html"
    },
    {
      "type": "pm_response",
      "field_provenance": {
        "notes": {
          "tier": "editorial",
          "method": "llm_judge_cm_signal_v1"
        }
      },
      "notes": "The ladder distribution is drawn from prediction market strike probabilities; no single-venue binary price is available for October payrolls."
    }
  ],
  "sources": [
    {
      "label": "lse.co.uk: INSTANT VIEW-Soft September jobs report sends markets higher | Financi",
      "url": "https://www.lse.co.uk/news/instant-view-soft-september-jobs-report-sends-markets-higher-u26fsa0o1v5oiw3.html",
      "published_at": "2026-10-02T00:00:00.000Z",
      "retrieved_at": "2026-10-02T14:25:25+00:00"
    }
  ],
  "field_provenance": {
    "pm_data": "kalshi_api",
    "news_context": "exa_search",
    "editorial_judgment": "cm_signal_llm_judge"
  },
  "canonical_urls": {
    "html": "https://clearmarket.fyi/signals/oct-2026-nonfarm-payrolls-ladder-implies-50k-60k-range-2026-10-02/",
    "json": "https://clearmarket.fyi/signals/oct-2026-nonfarm-payrolls-ladder-implies-50k-60k-range-2026-10-02.json"
  },
  "license": "https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/",
  "_provenance_registry": {
    "direct": "Unaltered extraction from primary venue/source API (e.g., polymarket_clob_api, kalshi_api, BLS, FRED). Highest trust tier.",
    "mediated": "Information fetched via grounded agentic retrieval (e.g., perplexity_grounded). MUST carry source_url to the underlying primary source.",
    "derived": "Algorithmic computation from listed inputs. Chain only as fresh as the oldest input timestamp (see as_of).",
    "editorial": "Interpretive classification produced by a versioned LLM prompt template (prompts auditable in github.com/JDSource/clearmarket/prompts)."
  },
  "_provenance_canonical": "https://clearmarket.fyi/schema/provenance/v1"
}