{
  "$schema": "https://clearmarket.fyi/schema/signal/v1.json",
  "record_id": "CMSIG2026101301",
  "record_slug": "oct-2026-payrolls-implied-50k-60k-kalshi-ladder-2026-10-13",
  "schema_version": "v0.2.0",
  "provenance_version": "0.2.0",
  "published_at": "2026-10-13T00:00:00.000Z",
  "semantic_title": "October payrolls seen well below 100K after September miss",
  "telemetry": "Kalshi ladder",
  "headline": "Oct 2026 payrolls implied 50K-60K: Kalshi ladder",
  "category_tag": "MOMENTUM_REPRICING",
  "secondary_tags": [],
  "detection_path": "news_cycle",
  "pre_news_classification": "concurrent",
  "status": {
    "state": "live",
    "as_of": "2026-10-21",
    "outcome": null,
    "outcome_basis": null,
    "final_price": null,
    "resolved_at": null
  },
  "target_event_id": "CM-EVT-6CSLHX0K76",
  "target_event_slug": "kxpayrolls-26oct",
  "event_question": "October 2026 nonfarm payrolls added",
  "linked_event_ids": [],
  "primary_market": {
    "platform": "kalshi",
    "platform_market_id": "KXPAYROLLS-26OCT-T60000",
    "question_raw": "Will above 60000 jobs be added in October 2026?",
    "current_price": 0.43,
    "volume_24h_usd": 3.56,
    "arbitration_model": "kalshi_staff",
    "resolution_source": "BLS",
    "resolves_at": "2027-02-05T15:00:00Z"
  },
  "related_markets": [],
  "bullets": [
    "Kalshi ladder puts the October 2026 payroll print in the 50K-60K implied range, with 69% pricing above 30K but only 27% above 100K.",
    "September's 29K print, well below the prior 12-month average of 45K, is consistent with the ladder's skew toward a weak-but-positive October outcome.",
    "Trading volume on this ladder surged 531x day over day, a strong signal the September miss is drawing heavy fresh attention to October's number.",
    "The Kalshi contract resolves on the official Bureau of Labor Statistics nonfarm payrolls release for October 2026; any benchmark revision could shift the implied range."
  ],
  "atomic_claims": [
    {
      "type": "news_event",
      "field_provenance": {
        "story": {
          "tier": "mediated",
          "method": "exa_search",
          "source": "cnnbc.com",
          "source_url": "https://cnnbc.com/u-s-economy-adds-just-29-000-jobs-in-september-as-labor-market-cools",
          "retrieved_at": "2026-10-13T07:48:09+00:00"
        }
      },
      "significance": {
        "threshold": 5,
        "threshold_unit": "rank",
        "passed": true,
        "reason": "surfaced in the daily Exa news-cycle scan; mechanically matched to an active kalshi market"
      },
      "story": "The U.S. economy added only 29,000 jobs in September, far below expectations, raising fears of a sustained labor market slowdown heading into October.",
      "publisher": "cnnbc.com",
      "published_at": "2026-10-13T00:00:00.000Z",
      "source_url": "https://cnnbc.com/u-s-economy-adds-just-29-000-jobs-in-september-as-labor-market-cools"
    },
    {
      "type": "pm_response",
      "field_provenance": {
        "notes": {
          "tier": "editorial",
          "method": "llm_judge_cm_signal_v1"
        }
      },
      "notes": "Kalshi ladder on October 2026 payrolls saw a 531x volume surge after the weak September report, with market-implied central estimate near 50K-60K."
    }
  ],
  "sources": [
    {
      "label": "cnnbc.com: U.S. Economy Adds Just 29,000 Jobs in September as Labor Market Cools",
      "url": "https://cnnbc.com/u-s-economy-adds-just-29-000-jobs-in-september-as-labor-market-cools",
      "published_at": "2026-10-13T00:00:00.000Z",
      "retrieved_at": "2026-10-13T07:48:09+00:00"
    }
  ],
  "field_provenance": {
    "pm_data": "kalshi_api",
    "news_context": "exa_search",
    "editorial_judgment": "cm_signal_llm_judge"
  },
  "canonical_urls": {
    "html": "https://clearmarket.fyi/signals/oct-2026-payrolls-implied-50k-60k-kalshi-ladder-2026-10-13/",
    "json": "https://clearmarket.fyi/signals/oct-2026-payrolls-implied-50k-60k-kalshi-ladder-2026-10-13.json"
  },
  "license": "https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/",
  "_provenance_registry": {
    "direct": "Unaltered extraction from primary venue/source API (e.g., polymarket_clob_api, kalshi_api, BLS, FRED). Highest trust tier.",
    "mediated": "Information fetched via grounded agentic retrieval (e.g., perplexity_grounded). MUST carry source_url to the underlying primary source.",
    "derived": "Algorithmic computation from listed inputs. Chain only as fresh as the oldest input timestamp (see as_of).",
    "editorial": "Interpretive classification produced by a versioned LLM prompt template (prompts auditable in github.com/JDSource/clearmarket/prompts)."
  },
  "_provenance_canonical": "https://clearmarket.fyi/schema/provenance/v1"
}