{
  "$schema": "https://clearmarket.fyi/schema/signal/v1.json",
  "record_id": "CMSIG2026080401",
  "record_slug": "oct-2026-payrolls-implied-70k-80k-ladder-pricing-2026-08-04",
  "schema_version": "v0.2.0",
  "provenance_version": "0.2.0",
  "published_at": "2026-08-04T00:00:00.000Z",
  "semantic_title": "October payrolls market implies 70K-80K range",
  "telemetry": "Kalshi ladder",
  "headline": "Oct 2026 payrolls implied 70K-80K: ladder pricing",
  "category_tag": "MOMENTUM_REPRICING",
  "secondary_tags": [],
  "detection_path": "news_cycle",
  "pre_news_classification": "concurrent",
  "status": {
    "state": "live",
    "as_of": "2026-09-05",
    "outcome": null,
    "outcome_basis": null,
    "final_price": null,
    "resolved_at": null
  },
  "target_event_id": "CM-EVT-6CSLHX0K76",
  "target_event_slug": "kxpayrolls-26oct",
  "event_question": "October 2026 nonfarm payroll change",
  "linked_event_ids": [],
  "primary_market": {
    "platform": "kalshi",
    "platform_market_id": "KXPAYROLLS-26OCT-T80000",
    "question_raw": "Will above 80000 jobs be added in October 2026?",
    "current_price": 0.45,
    "volume_24h_usd": 0,
    "arbitration_model": "kalshi_staff",
    "resolution_source": "BLS",
    "resolves_at": "2027-02-05T15:00:00Z"
  },
  "related_markets": [],
  "bullets": [
    "Prediction market ladder pins October 2026 payrolls in the 70K-80K range, with 54% above 50K and only 24% above 100K.",
    "BNY consensus of roughly 80,000 jobs aligns closely with the ladder's implied central range, suggesting no meaningful disagreement between analyst and market views.",
    "The 50K breakeven flagged by BNY as the unemployment-neutral threshold sits near the ladder's 54% mark, consistent with a labor market that markets see as neither accelerating nor deteriorating sharply.",
    "A companion prediction market on July unemployment (CM-EVT-ZF68TFNXF6) carries no live price, leaving the payroll ladder as the primary forward read on labor-market direction."
  ],
  "atomic_claims": [
    {
      "type": "news_event",
      "field_provenance": {
        "story": {
          "tier": "mediated",
          "method": "exa_search",
          "source": "fxstreet.com",
          "source_url": "https://www.fxstreet.com/news/us-dollar-nfp-and-inflation-mix-complicate-fed-path-bny-202608040915",
          "retrieved_at": "2026-08-07T08:53:43+00:00"
        }
      },
      "significance": {
        "threshold": 5,
        "threshold_unit": "rank",
        "passed": true,
        "reason": "surfaced in the daily Exa news-cycle scan; mechanically matched to an active kalshi market"
      },
      "story": "BNY strategists flagged July NFP consensus near 80,000 jobs as the key Fed input, with a 50,000 breakeven to hold unemployment steady.",
      "publisher": "fxstreet.com",
      "published_at": "2026-08-04T00:00:00.000Z",
      "source_url": "https://www.fxstreet.com/news/us-dollar-nfp-and-inflation-mix-complicate-fed-path-bny-202608040915"
    },
    {
      "type": "pm_response",
      "field_provenance": {
        "notes": {
          "tier": "editorial",
          "method": "llm_judge_cm_signal_v1"
        }
      },
      "notes": "Ladder distribution derived from prediction market strike probabilities; no single-venue binary price available for this event."
    }
  ],
  "sources": [
    {
      "label": "fxstreet.com: US Dollar: NFP and inflation mix complicate Fed path, BNY",
      "url": "https://www.fxstreet.com/news/us-dollar-nfp-and-inflation-mix-complicate-fed-path-bny-202608040915",
      "published_at": "2026-08-04T00:00:00.000Z",
      "retrieved_at": "2026-08-07T08:53:43+00:00"
    }
  ],
  "field_provenance": {
    "pm_data": "kalshi_api",
    "news_context": "exa_search",
    "editorial_judgment": "cm_signal_llm_judge"
  },
  "canonical_urls": {
    "html": "https://clearmarket.fyi/signals/oct-2026-payrolls-implied-70k-80k-ladder-pricing-2026-08-04/",
    "json": "https://clearmarket.fyi/signals/oct-2026-payrolls-implied-70k-80k-ladder-pricing-2026-08-04.json"
  },
  "license": "https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/",
  "_provenance_registry": {
    "direct": "Unaltered extraction from primary venue/source API (e.g., polymarket_clob_api, kalshi_api, BLS, FRED). Highest trust tier.",
    "mediated": "Information fetched via grounded agentic retrieval (e.g., perplexity_grounded). MUST carry source_url to the underlying primary source.",
    "derived": "Algorithmic computation from listed inputs. Chain only as fresh as the oldest input timestamp (see as_of).",
    "editorial": "Interpretive classification produced by a versioned LLM prompt template (prompts auditable in github.com/JDSource/clearmarket/prompts)."
  },
  "_provenance_canonical": "https://clearmarket.fyi/schema/provenance/v1"
}