{
  "$schema": "https://clearmarket.fyi/schema/signal/v1.json",
  "record_id": "CMSIG2026070503",
  "record_slug": "oct-2026-payrolls-seen-70k-80k-kalshi-ladder-2026-07-05",
  "schema_version": "v0.2.0",
  "provenance_version": "0.2.0",
  "published_at": "2026-07-05T20:25:30.000Z",
  "semantic_title": "October payroll pricing holds above labor contraction despite June miss",
  "telemetry": "Kalshi ladder",
  "headline": "Oct 2026 payrolls seen 70K-80K: Kalshi ladder",
  "category_tag": "MOMENTUM_REPRICING",
  "secondary_tags": [],
  "detection_path": "news_cycle",
  "pre_news_classification": "lagging",
  "target_event_id": "CM-EVT-6CSLHX0K76",
  "target_event_slug": "kxpayrolls-26oct",
  "event_question": "October 2026 nonfarm payrolls",
  "linked_event_ids": [],
  "primary_market": {
    "platform": "kalshi",
    "platform_market_id": "KXPAYROLLS-26OCT-T80000",
    "question_raw": "Will above 80000 jobs be added in October 2026?",
    "current_price": 0.45,
    "volume_24h_usd": 0,
    "arbitration_model": "kalshi_staff",
    "resolution_source": "BLS",
    "resolves_at": "2027-02-05T15:00:00Z"
  },
  "related_markets": [],
  "bullets": [
    "Kalshi ladder implies October 2026 payroll additions in the 70,000-80,000 range: 50% above 70K, 45% above 80K, 24% above 100K.",
    "June's 57,000 print is well below the ladder's modal October range, suggesting markets expect a mean-reversion rebound rather than sustained weakness.",
    "The 79% probability above zero and above negative 25K shows near-consensus that October avoids outright contraction, even after the June shock.",
    "Resolution via the Bureau of Labor Statistics October Employment Situation report; the 100K threshold at 24% is the key upside surprise marker to watch."
  ],
  "atomic_claims": [
    {
      "type": "news_event",
      "field_provenance": {
        "story": {
          "tier": "mediated",
          "method": "exa_search",
          "source": "finance.biggo.com",
          "source_url": "https://finance.biggo.com/news/e2b2479d-ad74-47db-bf75-11a5ce24b089",
          "retrieved_at": "2026-07-07T10:52:00+00:00"
        }
      },
      "significance": {
        "threshold": 5,
        "threshold_unit": "rank",
        "passed": true,
        "reason": "surfaced in the daily Exa news-cycle scan; mechanically matched to an active kalshi market"
      },
      "story": "June 2026 nonfarm payrolls came in at just 57,000, one of the weakest monthly prints in recent memory, with the unemployment rate holding at 4.2% as the labor force shrank.",
      "publisher": "finance.biggo.com",
      "published_at": "2026-07-05T20:25:30.000Z",
      "source_url": "https://finance.biggo.com/news/e2b2479d-ad74-47db-bf75-11a5ce24b089"
    },
    {
      "type": "pm_response",
      "field_provenance": {
        "notes": {
          "tier": "editorial",
          "method": "llm_judge_cm_signal_v1"
        }
      },
      "notes": "Kalshi ladder covers October 2026 nonfarm payrolls; the gap between June's 57K print and the October 70K-80K modal range is the market's mean-reversion bet."
    }
  ],
  "sources": [
    {
      "label": "finance.biggo.com: U.S. June Nonfarm Payrolls Plunge to 57,000, Rapidly Cooling Fed Rate",
      "url": "https://finance.biggo.com/news/e2b2479d-ad74-47db-bf75-11a5ce24b089",
      "published_at": "2026-07-05T20:25:30.000Z",
      "retrieved_at": "2026-07-07T10:52:00+00:00"
    }
  ],
  "field_provenance": {
    "pm_data": "kalshi_api",
    "news_context": "exa_search",
    "editorial_judgment": "cm_signal_llm_judge"
  },
  "canonical_urls": {
    "html": "https://clearmarket.fyi/signals/oct-2026-payrolls-seen-70k-80k-kalshi-ladder-2026-07-05/",
    "json": "https://clearmarket.fyi/signals/oct-2026-payrolls-seen-70k-80k-kalshi-ladder-2026-07-05.json"
  },
  "license": "https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/",
  "_provenance_registry": {
    "direct": "Unaltered extraction from primary venue/source API (e.g., polymarket_clob_api, kalshi_api, BLS, FRED). Highest trust tier.",
    "mediated": "Information fetched via grounded agentic retrieval (e.g., perplexity_grounded). MUST carry source_url to the underlying primary source.",
    "derived": "Algorithmic computation from listed inputs. Chain only as fresh as the oldest input timestamp (see as_of).",
    "editorial": "Interpretive classification produced by a versioned LLM prompt template (prompts auditable in github.com/JDSource/clearmarket/prompts)."
  },
  "_provenance_canonical": "https://clearmarket.fyi/schema/provenance/v1"
}