{
  "$schema": "https://clearmarket.fyi/schema/signal/v1.json",
  "record_id": "CMSIG2026101603",
  "record_slug": "oct-cpi-m-m-implied-0-2-0-3-kalshi-ladder-2026-10-16",
  "schema_version": "v0.2.0",
  "provenance_version": "0.2.0",
  "published_at": "2026-10-16T17:31:13.000Z",
  "semantic_title": "October CPI implied near 0.2-0.3 percent as hike odds rise",
  "telemetry": "Kalshi ladder",
  "headline": "Oct CPI m/m implied 0.2-0.3%: Kalshi ladder",
  "category_tag": "MOMENTUM_REPRICING",
  "secondary_tags": [],
  "detection_path": "news_cycle",
  "pre_news_classification": "concurrent",
  "status": {
    "state": "live",
    "as_of": "2026-10-21",
    "outcome": null,
    "outcome_basis": null,
    "final_price": null,
    "resolved_at": null
  },
  "target_event_id": "CM-EVT-N58KJP0K82",
  "target_event_slug": "kxcpi-26oct",
  "event_question": "October 2026 CPI month-over-month change",
  "linked_event_ids": [],
  "primary_market": {
    "platform": "kalshi",
    "platform_market_id": "KXCPI-26OCT-T0.3",
    "question_raw": "Will CPI rise more than 0.3% in October 2026?",
    "current_price": 0.36,
    "volume_24h_usd": 1627.57,
    "arbitration_model": "kalshi_staff",
    "resolution_source": "Bureau of Labor Statistics",
    "resolves_at": "2027-02-09T14:56:00Z"
  },
  "related_markets": [],
  "bullets": [
    "Kalshi ladder prices October 2026 CPI month-over-month in the 0.2-0.3% range: 97% above 0.0%, 65% above 0.2%, only 36% above 0.3%.",
    "Trading volume on this Kalshi ladder rose roughly 217x day over day, consistent with the Investing.com report that hot inflation is driving fresh positioning ahead of FOMC.",
    "The 36% probability above 0.3% shows the market does not fully price a repeat of September's gasoline-driven spike, but leaves meaningful tail risk open.",
    "The November CPI Kalshi ladder (CM-EVT-T57DHL6V48) implies a slightly softer 0.1-0.2%, suggesting the market sees October as hotter than the months ahead."
  ],
  "atomic_claims": [
    {
      "type": "news_event",
      "field_provenance": {
        "story": {
          "tier": "mediated",
          "method": "exa_search",
          "source": "investing.com",
          "source_url": "https://www.investing.com/news/economy-news/fed-market-review-hot-inflation-data-raises-october-hike-odds-ahead-of-fomc-93CH-4954682",
          "retrieved_at": "2026-10-17T11:57:10+00:00"
        }
      },
      "significance": {
        "threshold": 5,
        "threshold_unit": "rank",
        "passed": true,
        "reason": "surfaced in the daily Exa news-cycle scan; mechanically matched to an active kalshi market"
      },
      "story": "Investing.com reports hot inflation data has raised odds of a Fed rate hike at the upcoming October FOMC meeting.",
      "publisher": "investing.com",
      "published_at": "2026-10-16T17:31:13.000Z",
      "source_url": "https://www.investing.com/news/economy-news/fed-market-review-hot-inflation-data-raises-october-hike-odds-ahead-of-fomc-93CH-4954682"
    },
    {
      "type": "pm_response",
      "field_provenance": {
        "notes": {
          "tier": "editorial",
          "method": "llm_judge_cm_signal_v1"
        }
      },
      "notes": "Kalshi carries this ladder with volume up more than 200x day over day; the Bureau of Labor Statistics CPI release is the implied settlement source."
    }
  ],
  "sources": [
    {
      "label": "investing.com: Fed market review: hot inflation data raises October hike odds ahead o",
      "url": "https://www.investing.com/news/economy-news/fed-market-review-hot-inflation-data-raises-october-hike-odds-ahead-of-fomc-93CH-4954682",
      "published_at": "2026-10-16T17:31:13.000Z",
      "retrieved_at": "2026-10-17T11:57:10+00:00"
    }
  ],
  "field_provenance": {
    "pm_data": "kalshi_api",
    "news_context": "exa_search",
    "editorial_judgment": "cm_signal_llm_judge"
  },
  "canonical_urls": {
    "html": "https://clearmarket.fyi/signals/oct-cpi-m-m-implied-0-2-0-3-kalshi-ladder-2026-10-16/",
    "json": "https://clearmarket.fyi/signals/oct-cpi-m-m-implied-0-2-0-3-kalshi-ladder-2026-10-16.json"
  },
  "license": "https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/",
  "_provenance_registry": {
    "direct": "Unaltered extraction from primary venue/source API (e.g., polymarket_clob_api, kalshi_api, BLS, FRED). Highest trust tier.",
    "mediated": "Information fetched via grounded agentic retrieval (e.g., perplexity_grounded). MUST carry source_url to the underlying primary source.",
    "derived": "Algorithmic computation from listed inputs. Chain only as fresh as the oldest input timestamp (see as_of).",
    "editorial": "Interpretive classification produced by a versioned LLM prompt template (prompts auditable in github.com/JDSource/clearmarket/prompts)."
  },
  "_provenance_canonical": "https://clearmarket.fyi/schema/provenance/v1"
}