{
  "$schema": "https://clearmarket.fyi/schema/signal/v1.json",
  "record_id": "CMSIG2026101703",
  "record_slug": "oct-cpi-month-over-month-seen-at-0-2-0-3-kalshi-2026-10-17",
  "schema_version": "v0.2.0",
  "provenance_version": "0.2.0",
  "published_at": "2026-10-17T08:00:08.000Z",
  "semantic_title": "October CPI monthly gain priced in the 0.2-0.3% range",
  "telemetry": "Kalshi ladder",
  "headline": "Oct CPI month-over-month seen at 0.2-0.3%: Kalshi",
  "category_tag": "PRE_EVENT_PRICING",
  "secondary_tags": [],
  "detection_path": "news_cycle",
  "pre_news_classification": "pre_news",
  "status": {
    "state": "live",
    "as_of": "2026-10-21",
    "outcome": null,
    "outcome_basis": null,
    "final_price": null,
    "resolved_at": null
  },
  "target_event_id": "CM-EVT-N58KJP0K82",
  "target_event_slug": "kxcpi-26oct",
  "event_question": "October 2026 CPI month-over-month change",
  "linked_event_ids": [],
  "primary_market": {
    "platform": "kalshi",
    "platform_market_id": "KXCPI-26OCT-T0.3",
    "question_raw": "Will CPI rise more than 0.3% in October 2026?",
    "current_price": 0.36,
    "volume_24h_usd": 233.72,
    "arbitration_model": "kalshi_staff",
    "resolution_source": "Bureau of Labor Statistics",
    "resolves_at": "2027-02-09T14:56:00Z"
  },
  "related_markets": [],
  "bullets": [
    "Kalshi ladder implies October CPI month-over-month in the 0.2-0.3% range: 63% above 0.2%, 36% above 0.3%, and only 15% above 0.4%.",
    "September's hot 3.7% year-over-year headline print sets a high base; the market is not pricing an acceleration but is not pricing relief either.",
    "The November CPI ladder (CM-EVT-T57DHL6V48) shows a much softer implied range of 0.1-0.2%, with 68% above 0.1% but only 46% above 0.2%, suggesting the market sees some moderation ahead.",
    "Resolves via the BLS CPI release for October 2026; the October-to-November deceleration implied across both ladders would still leave core well above 2%."
  ],
  "atomic_claims": [
    {
      "type": "news_event",
      "field_provenance": {
        "story": {
          "tier": "mediated",
          "method": "exa_search",
          "source": "Damian J. Troise",
          "source_url": "https://apnews.com/article/earnings-inflation-technology-housing-employment-3982e18ed2061f793aa921b6addade05",
          "retrieved_at": "2026-10-18T07:47:28+00:00"
        }
      },
      "significance": {
        "threshold": 5,
        "threshold_unit": "rank",
        "passed": true,
        "reason": "surfaced in the daily Exa news-cycle scan; mechanically matched to an active kalshi market"
      },
      "story": "US earnings season and upcoming economic reports this week are expected to spotlight the ongoing toll of inflation on households and corporate margins.",
      "publisher": "Damian J. Troise",
      "published_at": "2026-10-17T08:00:08.000Z",
      "source_url": "https://apnews.com/article/earnings-inflation-technology-housing-employment-3982e18ed2061f793aa921b6addade05"
    },
    {
      "type": "pm_response",
      "field_provenance": {
        "notes": {
          "tier": "editorial",
          "method": "llm_judge_cm_signal_v1"
        }
      },
      "notes": "Kalshi hosts both the October and November CPI month-over-month ladders; the two distributions together suggest the market expects a modest sequential softening but no breakout disinflation."
    }
  ],
  "sources": [
    {
      "label": "Damian J. Troise: US earnings and economic reports this week to spotlight inflation’s to",
      "url": "https://apnews.com/article/earnings-inflation-technology-housing-employment-3982e18ed2061f793aa921b6addade05",
      "published_at": "2026-10-17T08:00:08.000Z",
      "retrieved_at": "2026-10-18T07:47:28+00:00"
    }
  ],
  "field_provenance": {
    "pm_data": "kalshi_api",
    "news_context": "exa_search",
    "editorial_judgment": "cm_signal_llm_judge"
  },
  "canonical_urls": {
    "html": "https://clearmarket.fyi/signals/oct-cpi-month-over-month-seen-at-0-2-0-3-kalshi-2026-10-17/",
    "json": "https://clearmarket.fyi/signals/oct-cpi-month-over-month-seen-at-0-2-0-3-kalshi-2026-10-17.json"
  },
  "license": "https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/",
  "_provenance_registry": {
    "direct": "Unaltered extraction from primary venue/source API (e.g., polymarket_clob_api, kalshi_api, BLS, FRED). Highest trust tier.",
    "mediated": "Information fetched via grounded agentic retrieval (e.g., perplexity_grounded). MUST carry source_url to the underlying primary source.",
    "derived": "Algorithmic computation from listed inputs. Chain only as fresh as the oldest input timestamp (see as_of).",
    "editorial": "Interpretive classification produced by a versioned LLM prompt template (prompts auditable in github.com/JDSource/clearmarket/prompts)."
  },
  "_provenance_canonical": "https://clearmarket.fyi/schema/provenance/v1"
}