{
  "$schema": "https://clearmarket.fyi/schema/signal/v1.json",
  "record_id": "CMSIG2026101702",
  "record_slug": "oct-cpi-monthly-gain-kalshi-ladder-at-0-2-0-3-2026-10-17",
  "schema_version": "v0.2.0",
  "provenance_version": "0.2.0",
  "published_at": "2026-10-17T08:00:08.000Z",
  "semantic_title": "October CPI monthly gain priced near 0.2-0.3 percent",
  "telemetry": "Kalshi ladder",
  "headline": "Oct CPI monthly gain: Kalshi ladder at 0.2-0.3%",
  "category_tag": "PRE_EVENT_PRICING",
  "secondary_tags": [],
  "detection_path": "news_cycle",
  "pre_news_classification": "pre_news",
  "status": {
    "state": "live",
    "as_of": "2026-10-21",
    "outcome": null,
    "outcome_basis": null,
    "final_price": null,
    "resolved_at": null
  },
  "target_event_id": "CM-EVT-N58KJP0K82",
  "target_event_slug": "kxcpi-26oct",
  "event_question": "October 2026 CPI monthly change",
  "linked_event_ids": [],
  "primary_market": {
    "platform": "kalshi",
    "platform_market_id": "KXCPI-26OCT-T0.3",
    "question_raw": "Will CPI rise more than 0.3% in October 2026?",
    "current_price": 0.36,
    "volume_24h_usd": 228.51,
    "arbitration_model": "kalshi_staff",
    "resolution_source": "Bureau of Labor Statistics",
    "resolves_at": "2027-02-09T14:56:00Z"
  },
  "related_markets": [],
  "bullets": [
    "Kalshi ladder implies October 2026 CPI monthly change in the 0.2-0.3% range: 64% above 0.2%, only 36% above 0.3%.",
    "With headline CPI recently printing at 3.7% year-over-year, markets are pricing continued but modest monthly momentum, not a spike.",
    "The November ladder (implied 0.1-0.2%) shows markets expect a slight deceleration in the following month, suggesting the October print is near a near-term peak.",
    "Resolution via the Bureau of Labor Statistics Employment Situation release; the October CPI report is a direct Fed policy input ahead of year-end meetings."
  ],
  "atomic_claims": [
    {
      "type": "news_event",
      "field_provenance": {
        "story": {
          "tier": "mediated",
          "method": "exa_search",
          "source": "Damian J. Troise",
          "source_url": "https://apnews.com/article/earnings-inflation-technology-housing-employment-3982e18ed2061f793aa921b6addade05",
          "retrieved_at": "2026-10-18T12:25:52+00:00"
        }
      },
      "significance": {
        "threshold": 5,
        "threshold_unit": "rank",
        "passed": true,
        "reason": "surfaced in the daily Exa news-cycle scan; mechanically matched to an active kalshi market"
      },
      "story": "AP News flagged this week's US earnings and economic reports as a spotlight on inflation's ongoing toll on consumers and businesses.",
      "publisher": "Damian J. Troise",
      "published_at": "2026-10-17T08:00:08.000Z",
      "source_url": "https://apnews.com/article/earnings-inflation-technology-housing-employment-3982e18ed2061f793aa921b6addade05"
    },
    {
      "type": "pm_response",
      "field_provenance": {
        "notes": {
          "tier": "editorial",
          "method": "llm_judge_cm_signal_v1"
        }
      },
      "notes": "Kalshi ladder on October 2026 CPI monthly change runs from -0.1% to 0.5% strikes; central tendency firmly between 0.2% and 0.3%."
    }
  ],
  "sources": [
    {
      "label": "Damian J. Troise: US earnings and economic reports this week to spotlight inflation’s to",
      "url": "https://apnews.com/article/earnings-inflation-technology-housing-employment-3982e18ed2061f793aa921b6addade05",
      "published_at": "2026-10-17T08:00:08.000Z",
      "retrieved_at": "2026-10-18T12:25:52+00:00"
    }
  ],
  "field_provenance": {
    "pm_data": "kalshi_api",
    "news_context": "exa_search",
    "editorial_judgment": "cm_signal_llm_judge"
  },
  "canonical_urls": {
    "html": "https://clearmarket.fyi/signals/oct-cpi-monthly-gain-kalshi-ladder-at-0-2-0-3-2026-10-17/",
    "json": "https://clearmarket.fyi/signals/oct-cpi-monthly-gain-kalshi-ladder-at-0-2-0-3-2026-10-17.json"
  },
  "license": "https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/",
  "_provenance_registry": {
    "direct": "Unaltered extraction from primary venue/source API (e.g., polymarket_clob_api, kalshi_api, BLS, FRED). Highest trust tier.",
    "mediated": "Information fetched via grounded agentic retrieval (e.g., perplexity_grounded). MUST carry source_url to the underlying primary source.",
    "derived": "Algorithmic computation from listed inputs. Chain only as fresh as the oldest input timestamp (see as_of).",
    "editorial": "Interpretive classification produced by a versioned LLM prompt template (prompts auditable in github.com/JDSource/clearmarket/prompts)."
  },
  "_provenance_canonical": "https://clearmarket.fyi/schema/provenance/v1"
}