{
  "$schema": "https://clearmarket.fyi/schema/signal/v1.json",
  "record_id": "CMSIG2026102502",
  "record_slug": "oct-fed-funds-upper-bound-at-4-0-4-25-kalshi-ladder-84-2026-10-25",
  "schema_version": "v0.2.0",
  "provenance_version": "0.2.0",
  "published_at": "2026-10-25T00:00:00.000Z",
  "semantic_title": "Market prices a hold as inflation at 3.7 percent keeps December hike alive",
  "telemetry": "Kalshi ladder",
  "headline": "Oct Fed funds upper bound at 4.0-4.25%: Kalshi ladder 84%",
  "category_tag": "MOMENTUM_REPRICING",
  "secondary_tags": [],
  "detection_path": "news_cycle",
  "pre_news_classification": "concurrent",
  "status": {
    "state": "live",
    "as_of": "2026-10-28",
    "outcome": null,
    "outcome_basis": null,
    "final_price": null,
    "resolved_at": null
  },
  "target_event_id": "CM-EVT-MR57HVWJT3",
  "target_event_slug": "kxfed-26dec",
  "event_question": "Oct 2026 Fed funds upper bound",
  "linked_event_ids": [],
  "primary_market": {
    "platform": "kalshi",
    "platform_market_id": "KXFED-26DEC-T4.25",
    "question_raw": "Will the upper bound of the federal funds rate be above 4.25% following the Fed's Dec 9, 2026 meeting?",
    "current_price": 0.1,
    "volume_24h_usd": 193.42,
    "arbitration_model": "kalshi_staff",
    "resolution_source": "Federal Reserve Board of Governors",
    "resolves_at": "2026-12-16T19:05:00Z"
  },
  "related_markets": [],
  "bullets": [
    "Kalshi ladder prices 84% on the upper bound staying above 4.0% after this meeting, with only 10% at the 4.25% strike, implying a hold at current levels.",
    "The 3.7% inflation print and unanimous economist expectation of a December hike are consistent with the market's pricing of a pause now but elevated terminal rate risk.",
    "The near-zero probability above 4.5% (4%) suggests markets are not pricing a surprise hike this week despite the firmer inflation data.",
    "Resolution follows the Federal Reserve's official rate decision announcement; any inter-meeting communication from Chair Kevin Warsh before Wednesday could reprice the 4.25% strike rapidly."
  ],
  "atomic_claims": [
    {
      "type": "news_event",
      "field_provenance": {
        "story": {
          "tier": "mediated",
          "method": "exa_search",
          "source": "Miriam Hart",
          "source_url": "https://econotimes.com/U-S-Inflation-Reaches-3-7-Ahead-of-Fed-s-October-Meeting-1762943",
          "retrieved_at": "2026-10-27T13:54:00+00:00"
        }
      },
      "significance": {
        "threshold": 5,
        "threshold_unit": "rank",
        "passed": true,
        "reason": "surfaced in the daily Exa news-cycle scan; mechanically matched to an active kalshi market"
      },
      "story": "U.S. inflation reached 3.7% ahead of the Fed's October meeting, with a Reuters survey showing all 100 economists projecting a December rate increase.",
      "publisher": "Miriam Hart",
      "published_at": "2026-10-25T00:00:00.000Z",
      "source_url": "https://econotimes.com/U-S-Inflation-Reaches-3-7-Ahead-of-Fed-s-October-Meeting-1762943"
    },
    {
      "type": "pm_response",
      "field_provenance": {
        "notes": {
          "tier": "editorial",
          "method": "llm_judge_cm_signal_v1"
        }
      },
      "notes": "Kalshi ladder volume rose 274x day over day on this contract, consistent with elevated pre-decision interest around the inflation catalyst."
    }
  ],
  "sources": [
    {
      "label": "Miriam Hart: U.S. Inflation Reaches 3.7% Ahead of Fed’s October Meeting | EconoTime",
      "url": "https://econotimes.com/U-S-Inflation-Reaches-3-7-Ahead-of-Fed-s-October-Meeting-1762943",
      "published_at": "2026-10-25T00:00:00.000Z",
      "retrieved_at": "2026-10-27T13:54:00+00:00"
    }
  ],
  "field_provenance": {
    "pm_data": "kalshi_api",
    "news_context": "exa_search",
    "editorial_judgment": "cm_signal_llm_judge"
  },
  "canonical_urls": {
    "html": "https://clearmarket.fyi/signals/oct-fed-funds-upper-bound-at-4-0-4-25-kalshi-ladder-84-2026-10-25/",
    "json": "https://clearmarket.fyi/signals/oct-fed-funds-upper-bound-at-4-0-4-25-kalshi-ladder-84-2026-10-25.json"
  },
  "license": "https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/",
  "_provenance_registry": {
    "direct": "Unaltered extraction from primary venue/source API (e.g., polymarket_clob_api, kalshi_api, BLS, FRED). Highest trust tier.",
    "mediated": "Information fetched via grounded agentic retrieval (e.g., perplexity_grounded). MUST carry source_url to the underlying primary source.",
    "derived": "Algorithmic computation from listed inputs. Chain only as fresh as the oldest input timestamp (see as_of).",
    "editorial": "Interpretive classification produced by a versioned LLM prompt template (prompts auditable in github.com/JDSource/clearmarket/prompts)."
  },
  "_provenance_canonical": "https://clearmarket.fyi/schema/provenance/v1"
}