{
  "$schema": "https://clearmarket.fyi/schema/signal/v1.json",
  "record_id": "CMSIG2026102602",
  "record_slug": "oct-fed-funds-upper-bound-seen-3-75-4-0-kalshi-ladder-2026-10-26",
  "schema_version": "v0.2.0",
  "provenance_version": "0.2.0",
  "published_at": "2026-10-26T07:00:00.000Z",
  "semantic_title": "Markets price a firm hold near 3.75-4 percent for Oct Fed",
  "telemetry": "Kalshi ladder",
  "headline": "Oct Fed funds upper bound seen 3.75-4.0%: Kalshi ladder",
  "category_tag": "MOMENTUM_REPRICING",
  "secondary_tags": [],
  "detection_path": "news_cycle",
  "pre_news_classification": "concurrent",
  "status": {
    "state": "live",
    "as_of": "2026-10-26",
    "outcome": null,
    "outcome_basis": null,
    "final_price": null,
    "resolved_at": null
  },
  "target_event_id": "CM-EVT-6BS28TS762",
  "target_event_slug": "kxfed-26oct",
  "event_question": "Fed funds upper bound after Oct 2026 meeting",
  "linked_event_ids": [],
  "primary_market": {
    "platform": "kalshi",
    "platform_market_id": "KXFED-26OCT-T4.00",
    "question_raw": "Will the upper bound of the federal funds rate be above 4.00% following the Fed's Oct 28, 2026 meeting?",
    "current_price": 0.07,
    "volume_24h_usd": 103.7,
    "arbitration_model": "kalshi_staff",
    "resolution_source": "Federal Reserve Board of Governors",
    "resolves_at": "2026-11-04T18:05:00Z"
  },
  "related_markets": [],
  "bullets": [
    "This Kalshi ladder shows 99% probability above 3.75% but only 7% above 4.0%, implying the implied mode sits at 3.75-4.0%.",
    "News framing of Fed as facing a 'crossroads' between inflation and growth is not reflected in pricing, which is overwhelmingly priced for a hold with no hike signal.",
    "Cross-ladder check: CM-EVT-MR57HVWJT3 implies a mode at 4.0-4.25%, suggesting a small inter-contract discrepancy; the 4.0% strike read differs between the two ladders.",
    "Resolves via the Federal Reserve's official Oct 28 announcement; a greater-than-25bp surprise move would be needed to shift the distribution materially."
  ],
  "atomic_claims": [
    {
      "type": "news_event",
      "field_provenance": {
        "story": {
          "tier": "mediated",
          "method": "exa_search",
          "source": "Investing.com",
          "source_url": "https://www.investing.com/analysis/fed-rate-decision-looms-as-inflation-fears-rise-whats-next-for-markets-200690221",
          "retrieved_at": "2026-10-26T14:48:08+00:00"
        }
      },
      "significance": {
        "threshold": 5,
        "threshold_unit": "rank",
        "passed": true,
        "reason": "surfaced in the daily Exa news-cycle scan; mechanically matched to an active kalshi market"
      },
      "story": "Oil prices are rising, inflation is re-accelerating, and the labor market is cooling, placing the Fed at a critical crossroads ahead of its October 28 decision.",
      "publisher": "Investing.com",
      "published_at": "2026-10-26T07:00:00.000Z",
      "source_url": "https://www.investing.com/analysis/fed-rate-decision-looms-as-inflation-fears-rise-whats-next-for-markets-200690221"
    },
    {
      "type": "pm_response",
      "field_provenance": {
        "notes": {
          "tier": "editorial",
          "method": "llm_judge_cm_signal_v1"
        }
      },
      "notes": "This Kalshi ladder and CM-EVT-MR57HVWJT3 cover the same decision but show slightly different modal ranges; readers should treat 3.75-4.25% as the consensus band."
    }
  ],
  "sources": [
    {
      "label": "Investing.com: Fed Rate Decision Looms as Inflation Fears Rise: What’s Next for Marke",
      "url": "https://www.investing.com/analysis/fed-rate-decision-looms-as-inflation-fears-rise-whats-next-for-markets-200690221",
      "published_at": "2026-10-26T07:00:00.000Z",
      "retrieved_at": "2026-10-26T14:48:08+00:00"
    }
  ],
  "field_provenance": {
    "pm_data": "kalshi_api",
    "news_context": "exa_search",
    "editorial_judgment": "cm_signal_llm_judge"
  },
  "canonical_urls": {
    "html": "https://clearmarket.fyi/signals/oct-fed-funds-upper-bound-seen-3-75-4-0-kalshi-ladder-2026-10-26/",
    "json": "https://clearmarket.fyi/signals/oct-fed-funds-upper-bound-seen-3-75-4-0-kalshi-ladder-2026-10-26.json"
  },
  "license": "https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/",
  "_provenance_registry": {
    "direct": "Unaltered extraction from primary venue/source API (e.g., polymarket_clob_api, kalshi_api, BLS, FRED). Highest trust tier.",
    "mediated": "Information fetched via grounded agentic retrieval (e.g., perplexity_grounded). MUST carry source_url to the underlying primary source.",
    "derived": "Algorithmic computation from listed inputs. Chain only as fresh as the oldest input timestamp (see as_of).",
    "editorial": "Interpretive classification produced by a versioned LLM prompt template (prompts auditable in github.com/JDSource/clearmarket/prompts)."
  },
  "_provenance_canonical": "https://clearmarket.fyi/schema/provenance/v1"
}