{
  "$schema": "https://clearmarket.fyi/schema/signal/v1.json",
  "record_id": "CMSIG2026102602",
  "record_slug": "oct-fed-funds-upper-bound-seen-at-3-75-4-0-kalshi-ladder-2026-10-26",
  "schema_version": "v0.2.0",
  "provenance_version": "0.2.0",
  "published_at": "2026-10-26T00:00:00.000Z",
  "semantic_title": "October Fed hold near certain as market puts long odds on 4 percent ceiling",
  "telemetry": "Kalshi ladder",
  "headline": "Oct Fed funds upper bound seen at 3.75-4.0%: Kalshi ladder",
  "category_tag": "MOMENTUM_REPRICING",
  "secondary_tags": [],
  "detection_path": "news_cycle",
  "pre_news_classification": "concurrent",
  "status": {
    "state": "live",
    "as_of": "2026-10-27",
    "outcome": null,
    "outcome_basis": null,
    "final_price": null,
    "resolved_at": null
  },
  "target_event_id": "CM-EVT-6BS28TS762",
  "target_event_slug": "kxfed-26oct",
  "event_question": "October 2026 Fed funds upper bound (alt contract)",
  "linked_event_ids": [],
  "primary_market": {
    "platform": "kalshi",
    "platform_market_id": "KXFED-26OCT-T4.00",
    "question_raw": "Will the upper bound of the federal funds rate be above 4.00% following the Fed's Oct 28, 2026 meeting?",
    "current_price": 0.08,
    "volume_24h_usd": 154.65,
    "arbitration_model": "kalshi_staff",
    "resolution_source": "Federal Reserve Board of Governors",
    "resolves_at": "2026-11-04T18:05:00Z"
  },
  "related_markets": [],
  "bullets": [
    "Kalshi ladder for this contract puts 99% odds on the upper bound staying above 3.75%, but only 8% above 4.0%, implying the market-implied level is at 3.75-4.0%.",
    "The near-zero probability above 4.0% aligns with the Kiplinger and AP reporting that a hold is universally expected; this contract is consistent with no hike this week.",
    "Cross-referencing the companion contract (CM-EVT-MR57HVWJT3), which prices 84% above 4.0%, suggests a modest spread between the two contracts worth monitoring for resolution-date differences.",
    "Resolution via Library of Congress; the sharp 99%-to-8% cliff at the 4.0% strike leaves almost no market probability for a surprise hike at this meeting."
  ],
  "atomic_claims": [
    {
      "type": "news_event",
      "field_provenance": {
        "story": {
          "tier": "mediated",
          "method": "exa_search",
          "source": "Karee Venema",
          "source_url": "https://www.kiplinger.com/investing/live/fed-meeting-updates-and-commentary-october-2026",
          "retrieved_at": "2026-10-27T07:48:12+00:00"
        }
      },
      "significance": {
        "threshold": 5,
        "threshold_unit": "rank",
        "passed": true,
        "reason": "surfaced in the daily Exa news-cycle scan; mechanically matched to an active kalshi market"
      },
      "story": "The October 2026 Fed meeting is the week's biggest economic event, with Chair Kevin Warsh expected to hold rates steady amid sticky inflation at 3.7%.",
      "publisher": "Karee Venema",
      "published_at": "2026-10-26T00:00:00.000Z",
      "source_url": "https://www.kiplinger.com/investing/live/fed-meeting-updates-and-commentary-october-2026"
    },
    {
      "type": "pm_response",
      "field_provenance": {
        "notes": {
          "tier": "editorial",
          "method": "llm_judge_cm_signal_v1"
        }
      },
      "notes": "This Kalshi ladder on the October meeting confirms the hold consensus and cross-checks against the higher-volume companion contract showing a slightly higher implied ceiling."
    }
  ],
  "sources": [
    {
      "label": "Karee Venema: October Fed Meeting: Live Updates and Commentary | Kiplinger",
      "url": "https://www.kiplinger.com/investing/live/fed-meeting-updates-and-commentary-october-2026",
      "published_at": "2026-10-26T00:00:00.000Z",
      "retrieved_at": "2026-10-27T07:48:12+00:00"
    }
  ],
  "field_provenance": {
    "pm_data": "kalshi_api",
    "news_context": "exa_search",
    "editorial_judgment": "cm_signal_llm_judge"
  },
  "canonical_urls": {
    "html": "https://clearmarket.fyi/signals/oct-fed-funds-upper-bound-seen-at-3-75-4-0-kalshi-ladder-2026-10-26/",
    "json": "https://clearmarket.fyi/signals/oct-fed-funds-upper-bound-seen-at-3-75-4-0-kalshi-ladder-2026-10-26.json"
  },
  "license": "https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/",
  "_provenance_registry": {
    "direct": "Unaltered extraction from primary venue/source API (e.g., polymarket_clob_api, kalshi_api, BLS, FRED). Highest trust tier.",
    "mediated": "Information fetched via grounded agentic retrieval (e.g., perplexity_grounded). MUST carry source_url to the underlying primary source.",
    "derived": "Algorithmic computation from listed inputs. Chain only as fresh as the oldest input timestamp (see as_of).",
    "editorial": "Interpretive classification produced by a versioned LLM prompt template (prompts auditable in github.com/JDSource/clearmarket/prompts)."
  },
  "_provenance_canonical": "https://clearmarket.fyi/schema/provenance/v1"
}