{
  "$schema": "https://clearmarket.fyi/schema/signal/v1.json",
  "record_id": "CMSIG2026110302",
  "record_slug": "oct-nonfarm-jobs-implied-60k-70k-kalshi-ladder-2026-11-03",
  "schema_version": "v0.2.0",
  "provenance_version": "0.2.0",
  "published_at": "2026-11-03T00:00:00.000Z",
  "semantic_title": "October payrolls seen near 60K to 70K range",
  "telemetry": "Kalshi ladder",
  "headline": "Oct nonfarm jobs implied 60K-70K: Kalshi ladder",
  "category_tag": "MOMENTUM_REPRICING",
  "secondary_tags": [],
  "detection_path": "news_cycle",
  "pre_news_classification": "concurrent",
  "status": {
    "state": "live",
    "as_of": "2026-11-04",
    "outcome": null,
    "outcome_basis": null,
    "final_price": null,
    "resolved_at": null
  },
  "target_event_id": "CM-EVT-6CSLHX0K76",
  "target_event_slug": "kxpayrolls-26oct",
  "event_question": "October 2026 nonfarm payrolls change",
  "linked_event_ids": [],
  "primary_market": {
    "platform": "kalshi",
    "platform_market_id": "KXPAYROLLS-26OCT-T70000",
    "question_raw": "Will above 70000 jobs be added in October 2026?",
    "current_price": 0.46,
    "volume_24h_usd": 412.41,
    "arbitration_model": "kalshi_staff",
    "resolution_source": "BLS",
    "resolves_at": "2027-02-05T15:00:00Z"
  },
  "related_markets": [],
  "bullets": [
    "Kalshi ladder implies October payrolls in the 60,000-70,000 range; 58% chance above 60K, dropping to 46% above 70K.",
    "Analyst consensus calls for modest gains and a lower unemployment rate; Kalshi distribution is broadly consistent with subdued but positive growth.",
    "Wednesday ADP beat of 86K vs. 69K expected sits above the Kalshi modal range, adding mild upside risk to Friday's official print.",
    "Resolves via the Bureau of Labor Statistics Employment Situation report; September's 29K print (from Story 6) anchors the low-end reference for the distribution."
  ],
  "atomic_claims": [
    {
      "type": "news_event",
      "field_provenance": {
        "story": {
          "tier": "mediated",
          "method": "exa_search",
          "source": "53.com",
          "source_url": "https://www.53.com/content/fifth-third/en/financial-insights/business/fifth-third-economic-weekly-with-bill-adams/economic-weekly-nov-03-2026.html",
          "retrieved_at": "2026-11-04T15:56:48+00:00"
        }
      },
      "significance": {
        "threshold": 5,
        "threshold_unit": "rank",
        "passed": true,
        "reason": "surfaced in the daily Exa news-cycle scan; mechanically matched to an active kalshi market"
      },
      "story": "Forecasters expect October payrolls to show modest growth with unemployment edging lower, following September's weak 29,000 print.",
      "publisher": "53.com",
      "published_at": "2026-11-03T00:00:00.000Z",
      "source_url": "https://www.53.com/content/fifth-third/en/financial-insights/business/fifth-third-economic-weekly-with-bill-adams/economic-weekly-nov-03-2026.html"
    },
    {
      "type": "pm_response",
      "field_provenance": {
        "notes": {
          "tier": "editorial",
          "method": "llm_judge_cm_signal_v1"
        }
      },
      "notes": "Kalshi ladder covers strikes from -25K to 125K; the distribution places 94% above -25K and only 15% above 125K, confirming a narrow central case."
    }
  ],
  "sources": [
    {
      "label": "53.com: Unemployment Rate Likely to Edge Lower in October Jobs Report",
      "url": "https://www.53.com/content/fifth-third/en/financial-insights/business/fifth-third-economic-weekly-with-bill-adams/economic-weekly-nov-03-2026.html",
      "published_at": "2026-11-03T00:00:00.000Z",
      "retrieved_at": "2026-11-04T15:56:48+00:00"
    }
  ],
  "field_provenance": {
    "pm_data": "kalshi_api",
    "news_context": "exa_search",
    "editorial_judgment": "cm_signal_llm_judge"
  },
  "canonical_urls": {
    "html": "https://clearmarket.fyi/signals/oct-nonfarm-jobs-implied-60k-70k-kalshi-ladder-2026-11-03/",
    "json": "https://clearmarket.fyi/signals/oct-nonfarm-jobs-implied-60k-70k-kalshi-ladder-2026-11-03.json"
  },
  "license": "https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/",
  "_provenance_registry": {
    "direct": "Unaltered extraction from primary venue/source API (e.g., polymarket_clob_api, kalshi_api, BLS, FRED). Highest trust tier.",
    "mediated": "Information fetched via grounded agentic retrieval (e.g., perplexity_grounded). MUST carry source_url to the underlying primary source.",
    "derived": "Algorithmic computation from listed inputs. Chain only as fresh as the oldest input timestamp (see as_of).",
    "editorial": "Interpretive classification produced by a versioned LLM prompt template (prompts auditable in github.com/JDSource/clearmarket/prompts)."
  },
  "_provenance_canonical": "https://clearmarket.fyi/schema/provenance/v1"
}