{
  "$schema": "https://clearmarket.fyi/schema/signal/v1.json",
  "record_id": "CMSIG2026110201",
  "record_slug": "oct-payrolls-implied-60k-70k-kalshi-ladder-2026-11-02",
  "schema_version": "v0.2.0",
  "provenance_version": "0.2.0",
  "published_at": "2026-11-02T17:17:35.000Z",
  "semantic_title": "October payrolls seen near 60K-70K, job growth stays odds-on",
  "telemetry": "Kalshi ladder",
  "headline": "Oct payrolls implied 60K-70K: Kalshi ladder",
  "category_tag": "PRE_EVENT_PRICING",
  "secondary_tags": [],
  "detection_path": "news_cycle",
  "pre_news_classification": "pre_news",
  "status": {
    "state": "resolved",
    "as_of": "2026-11-08",
    "outcome": "YES",
    "outcome_basis": "resolution_log",
    "final_price": 1,
    "resolved_at": "2026-11-06"
  },
  "target_event_id": "CM-EVT-6CSLHX0K76",
  "target_event_slug": "kxpayrolls-26oct",
  "event_question": "October 2026 nonfarm payrolls added",
  "linked_event_ids": [],
  "primary_market": {
    "platform": "kalshi",
    "platform_market_id": "KXPAYROLLS-26OCT-T70000",
    "question_raw": "Will above 70000 jobs be added in October 2026?",
    "current_price": 0.47,
    "volume_24h_usd": 371.61,
    "arbitration_model": "kalshi_staff",
    "resolution_source": "BLS",
    "resolves_at": "2027-02-05T15:00:00Z"
  },
  "related_markets": [],
  "bullets": [
    "Kalshi ladder puts the implied October payrolls range at 60K-70K: 92% above zero, 57% above 50K, only 31% above 100K.",
    "Trading volume on this contract surged 22,979% day-over-day, signaling sharp fresh attention ahead of Friday's release.",
    "The sharp drop in probability between 50K (57%) and 70K (47%) marks where the distribution thins, market sees modest but positive job growth as the central case.",
    "The Bureau of Labor Statistics Employment Situation report settles this contract; hurricane or survey-week distortions could move the print outside the consensus band."
  ],
  "atomic_claims": [
    {
      "type": "news_event",
      "field_provenance": {
        "story": {
          "tier": "mediated",
          "method": "exa_search",
          "source": "investing.com",
          "source_url": "https://www.investing.com/news/stock-market-news/weekly-economic-outlook-payrolls-and-fed-speakers-in-focus-93CH-4992504",
          "retrieved_at": "2026-11-05T07:48:08+00:00"
        }
      },
      "significance": {
        "threshold": 5,
        "threshold_unit": "rank",
        "passed": true,
        "reason": "surfaced in the daily Exa news-cycle scan; mechanically matched to an active kalshi market"
      },
      "story": "Fed held rates and jobs data is the week's focal point, with payrolls and unemployment reports due Friday.",
      "publisher": "investing.com",
      "published_at": "2026-11-02T17:17:35.000Z",
      "source_url": "https://www.investing.com/news/stock-market-news/weekly-economic-outlook-payrolls-and-fed-speakers-in-focus-93CH-4992504"
    },
    {
      "type": "pm_response",
      "field_provenance": {
        "notes": {
          "tier": "editorial",
          "method": "llm_judge_cm_signal_v1"
        }
      },
      "notes": "Kalshi ladder, volume up 230x day-over-day, reflects pre-report positioning around a consensus of modest October job gains."
    }
  ],
  "sources": [
    {
      "label": "investing.com: Weekly economic outlook: payrolls and Fed speakers in focus By Investi",
      "url": "https://www.investing.com/news/stock-market-news/weekly-economic-outlook-payrolls-and-fed-speakers-in-focus-93CH-4992504",
      "published_at": "2026-11-02T17:17:35.000Z",
      "retrieved_at": "2026-11-05T07:48:08+00:00"
    }
  ],
  "field_provenance": {
    "pm_data": "kalshi_api",
    "news_context": "exa_search",
    "editorial_judgment": "cm_signal_llm_judge"
  },
  "canonical_urls": {
    "html": "https://clearmarket.fyi/signals/oct-payrolls-implied-60k-70k-kalshi-ladder-2026-11-02/",
    "json": "https://clearmarket.fyi/signals/oct-payrolls-implied-60k-70k-kalshi-ladder-2026-11-02.json"
  },
  "license": "https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/",
  "_provenance_registry": {
    "direct": "Unaltered extraction from primary venue/source API (e.g., polymarket_clob_api, kalshi_api, BLS, FRED). Highest trust tier.",
    "mediated": "Information fetched via grounded agentic retrieval (e.g., perplexity_grounded). MUST carry source_url to the underlying primary source.",
    "derived": "Algorithmic computation from listed inputs. Chain only as fresh as the oldest input timestamp (see as_of).",
    "editorial": "Interpretive classification produced by a versioned LLM prompt template (prompts auditable in github.com/JDSource/clearmarket/prompts)."
  },
  "_provenance_canonical": "https://clearmarket.fyi/schema/provenance/v1"
}