{
  "$schema": "https://clearmarket.fyi/schema/signal/v1.json",
  "record_id": "CMSIG2026102301",
  "record_slug": "oct-payrolls-implied-70k-80k-kalshi-above-actual-29k-2026-10-23",
  "schema_version": "v0.2.0",
  "provenance_version": "0.2.0",
  "published_at": "2026-10-23T00:00:00.000Z",
  "semantic_title": "October payrolls market stays well above the weak print",
  "telemetry": "Kalshi ladder",
  "headline": "Oct payrolls implied 70K-80K: Kalshi above actual 29K",
  "category_tag": "MOMENTUM_REPRICING",
  "secondary_tags": [],
  "detection_path": "news_cycle",
  "pre_news_classification": "lagging",
  "status": {
    "state": "live",
    "as_of": "2026-10-25",
    "outcome": null,
    "outcome_basis": null,
    "final_price": null,
    "resolved_at": null
  },
  "target_event_id": "CM-EVT-6CSLHX0K76",
  "target_event_slug": "kxpayrolls-26oct",
  "event_question": "October 2026 nonfarm payrolls",
  "linked_event_ids": [],
  "primary_market": {
    "platform": "kalshi",
    "platform_market_id": "KXPAYROLLS-26OCT-T80000",
    "question_raw": "Will above 80000 jobs be added in October 2026?",
    "current_price": 0.45,
    "volume_24h_usd": 0,
    "arbitration_model": "kalshi_staff",
    "resolution_source": "BLS",
    "resolves_at": "2027-02-05T15:00:00Z"
  },
  "related_markets": [],
  "bullets": [
    "Kalshi ladder pins October payrolls in the 70K-80K implied range, with 51% above 70K and 45% above 80K.",
    "Actual print of 29K is well below the market-implied midpoint, trading volume surged 172x day-over-day, signaling rapid fresh attention on this claim.",
    "At 29K, the realized number sits near the 0-30K range where Kalshi assigns 15-21% cumulative probability, market was clearly not pricing this outcome.",
    "The Fed funds rate ladder (CM-EVT-MR57HVWJT3) still prices 80% odds the upper bound stays above 4.0%, suggesting weak jobs alone has not fully repriced the rate path."
  ],
  "atomic_claims": [
    {
      "type": "news_event",
      "field_provenance": {
        "story": {
          "tier": "mediated",
          "method": "exa_search",
          "source": "Amelia Northam",
          "source_url": "https://quantumnova.tech/news/us-job-growth-slowed-sharply-in-october-as-unemployment-ticked-up-weighing-on-markets-and-fed-outlook",
          "retrieved_at": "2026-10-25T07:48:12+00:00"
        }
      },
      "significance": {
        "threshold": 5,
        "threshold_unit": "rank",
        "passed": true,
        "reason": "surfaced in the daily Exa news-cycle scan; mechanically matched to an active kalshi market"
      },
      "story": "October US payrolls came in at just 29,000 jobs added, sharply below expectations, with unemployment ticking higher.",
      "publisher": "Amelia Northam",
      "published_at": "2026-10-23T00:00:00.000Z",
      "source_url": "https://quantumnova.tech/news/us-job-growth-slowed-sharply-in-october-as-unemployment-ticked-up-weighing-on-markets-and-fed-outlook"
    },
    {
      "type": "pm_response",
      "field_provenance": {
        "notes": {
          "tier": "editorial",
          "method": "llm_judge_cm_signal_v1"
        }
      },
      "notes": "Kalshi contract on October 2026 payrolls saw a 172x day-over-day volume surge, consistent with the surprise miss drawing heavy fresh positioning."
    }
  ],
  "sources": [
    {
      "label": "Amelia Northam: Weak October US payrolls (+29,000) and rising unemployment reshape mar",
      "url": "https://quantumnova.tech/news/us-job-growth-slowed-sharply-in-october-as-unemployment-ticked-up-weighing-on-markets-and-fed-outlook",
      "published_at": "2026-10-23T00:00:00.000Z",
      "retrieved_at": "2026-10-25T07:48:12+00:00"
    }
  ],
  "field_provenance": {
    "pm_data": "kalshi_api",
    "news_context": "exa_search",
    "editorial_judgment": "cm_signal_llm_judge"
  },
  "canonical_urls": {
    "html": "https://clearmarket.fyi/signals/oct-payrolls-implied-70k-80k-kalshi-above-actual-29k-2026-10-23/",
    "json": "https://clearmarket.fyi/signals/oct-payrolls-implied-70k-80k-kalshi-above-actual-29k-2026-10-23.json"
  },
  "license": "https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/",
  "_provenance_registry": {
    "direct": "Unaltered extraction from primary venue/source API (e.g., polymarket_clob_api, kalshi_api, BLS, FRED). Highest trust tier.",
    "mediated": "Information fetched via grounded agentic retrieval (e.g., perplexity_grounded). MUST carry source_url to the underlying primary source.",
    "derived": "Algorithmic computation from listed inputs. Chain only as fresh as the oldest input timestamp (see as_of).",
    "editorial": "Interpretive classification produced by a versioned LLM prompt template (prompts auditable in github.com/JDSource/clearmarket/prompts)."
  },
  "_provenance_canonical": "https://clearmarket.fyi/schema/provenance/v1"
}