{
  "$schema": "https://clearmarket.fyi/schema/signal/v1.json",
  "record_id": "CMSIG2026081103",
  "record_slug": "oct-payrolls-implied-at-70k-80k-prediction-market-2026-08-11",
  "schema_version": "v0.2.0",
  "provenance_version": "0.2.0",
  "published_at": "2026-08-11T00:00:00.000Z",
  "semantic_title": "October payrolls outlook holds near 50% at the 70-80K range",
  "telemetry": "Kalshi ladder",
  "headline": "Oct payrolls implied at 70K-80K: prediction market",
  "category_tag": "MOMENTUM_REPRICING",
  "secondary_tags": [],
  "detection_path": "news_cycle",
  "pre_news_classification": "concurrent",
  "status": {
    "state": "live",
    "as_of": "2026-09-05",
    "outcome": null,
    "outcome_basis": null,
    "final_price": null,
    "resolved_at": null
  },
  "target_event_id": "CM-EVT-6CSLHX0K76",
  "target_event_slug": "kxpayrolls-26oct",
  "event_question": "Nonfarm payrolls change, October 2026",
  "linked_event_ids": [],
  "primary_market": {
    "platform": "kalshi",
    "platform_market_id": "KXPAYROLLS-26OCT-T80000",
    "question_raw": "Will above 80000 jobs be added in October 2026?",
    "current_price": 0.45,
    "volume_24h_usd": 0,
    "arbitration_model": "kalshi_staff",
    "resolution_source": "BLS",
    "resolves_at": "2027-02-05T15:00:00Z"
  },
  "related_markets": [],
  "bullets": [
    "The prediction market ladder implies October 2026 payrolls in the 70,000-80,000 range, with the 70K rung at 50% and the 80K rung at 45%.",
    "July's 23,000 job loss sits well below this implied range, suggesting the market does not yet fully extrapolate the July weakness into October.",
    "May revised to 63,000 and June to 20,000 already reflect a softening trend; October pricing above zero implies a partial rebound expectation.",
    "Resolves via the Bureau of Labor Statistics nonfarm payrolls release for October 2026; revisions to prior months could shift the effective benchmark."
  ],
  "atomic_claims": [
    {
      "type": "news_event",
      "field_provenance": {
        "story": {
          "tier": "mediated",
          "method": "exa_search",
          "source": "Dani Tietz",
          "source_url": "https://mahometdaily.com/u-s-payrolls-slip-by-23000-in-july-as-health-care-gains-offset-public-education-retail-losses/",
          "retrieved_at": "2026-08-12T09:07:43+00:00"
        }
      },
      "significance": {
        "threshold": 5,
        "threshold_unit": "rank",
        "passed": true,
        "reason": "surfaced in the daily Exa news-cycle scan; mechanically matched to an active kalshi market"
      },
      "story": "U.S. employers shed 23,000 jobs in July, with prior months also revised sharply lower, raising fears of sustained labor market weakness.",
      "publisher": "Dani Tietz",
      "published_at": "2026-08-11T00:00:00.000Z",
      "source_url": "https://mahometdaily.com/u-s-payrolls-slip-by-23000-in-july-as-health-care-gains-offset-public-education-retail-losses/"
    },
    {
      "type": "pm_response",
      "field_provenance": {
        "notes": {
          "tier": "editorial",
          "method": "llm_judge_cm_signal_v1"
        }
      },
      "notes": "This ladder carries priced data; the distribution is centered well above zero, implying markets treat July as a trough rather than a trend."
    }
  ],
  "sources": [
    {
      "label": "Dani Tietz: U.S. payrolls slip by 23,000 in July as health care gains offset publi",
      "url": "https://mahometdaily.com/u-s-payrolls-slip-by-23000-in-july-as-health-care-gains-offset-public-education-retail-losses/",
      "published_at": "2026-08-11T00:00:00.000Z",
      "retrieved_at": "2026-08-12T09:07:43+00:00"
    }
  ],
  "field_provenance": {
    "pm_data": "kalshi_api",
    "news_context": "exa_search",
    "editorial_judgment": "cm_signal_llm_judge"
  },
  "canonical_urls": {
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    "json": "https://clearmarket.fyi/signals/oct-payrolls-implied-at-70k-80k-prediction-market-2026-08-11.json"
  },
  "license": "https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/",
  "_provenance_registry": {
    "direct": "Unaltered extraction from primary venue/source API (e.g., polymarket_clob_api, kalshi_api, BLS, FRED). Highest trust tier.",
    "mediated": "Information fetched via grounded agentic retrieval (e.g., perplexity_grounded). MUST carry source_url to the underlying primary source.",
    "derived": "Algorithmic computation from listed inputs. Chain only as fresh as the oldest input timestamp (see as_of).",
    "editorial": "Interpretive classification produced by a versioned LLM prompt template (prompts auditable in github.com/JDSource/clearmarket/prompts)."
  },
  "_provenance_canonical": "https://clearmarket.fyi/schema/provenance/v1"
}