{
  "$schema": "https://clearmarket.fyi/schema/signal/v1.json",
  "record_id": "CMSIG2026110201",
  "record_slug": "oct-payrolls-kalshi-ladder-implies-60k-70k-2026-11-02",
  "schema_version": "v0.2.0",
  "provenance_version": "0.2.0",
  "published_at": "2026-11-02T06:42:02.000Z",
  "semantic_title": "October payrolls seen landing in 60K-70K range",
  "telemetry": "Kalshi ladder",
  "headline": "Oct payrolls: Kalshi ladder implies 60K-70K",
  "category_tag": "MOMENTUM_REPRICING",
  "secondary_tags": [],
  "detection_path": "news_cycle",
  "pre_news_classification": "concurrent",
  "status": {
    "state": "live",
    "as_of": "2026-11-04",
    "outcome": null,
    "outcome_basis": null,
    "final_price": null,
    "resolved_at": null
  },
  "target_event_id": "CM-EVT-6CSLHX0K76",
  "target_event_slug": "kxpayrolls-26oct",
  "event_question": "October 2026 nonfarm payroll job additions",
  "linked_event_ids": [],
  "primary_market": {
    "platform": "kalshi",
    "platform_market_id": "KXPAYROLLS-26OCT-T70000",
    "question_raw": "Will above 70000 jobs be added in October 2026?",
    "current_price": 0.46,
    "volume_24h_usd": 13.16,
    "arbitration_model": "kalshi_staff",
    "resolution_source": "BLS",
    "resolves_at": "2027-02-05T15:00:00Z"
  },
  "related_markets": [],
  "bullets": [
    "Kalshi ladder prices the October 2026 payroll print in the 60K-70K range: 52% above 60K, 46% above 70K.",
    "Consensus forecast of ~65K is closely aligned with the market-implied midpoint, suggesting the prediction market is not fading analyst expectations.",
    "The sharp drop from 72% above 30K to 46% above 70K signals meaningful uncertainty in the upper tail; a surprise beat above 80K is only 39% likely.",
    "The unemployment rate Kalshi ladder (event CM-EVT-2X91TW50H2) puts 61% odds on U-3 above 4.1% and only 26% above 4.2%, broadly consistent with the 4.2% consensus forecast."
  ],
  "atomic_claims": [
    {
      "type": "news_event",
      "field_provenance": {
        "story": {
          "tier": "mediated",
          "method": "exa_search",
          "source": "Ed Yardeni",
          "source_url": "https://www.investing.com/analysis/economic-week-ahead-payrolls-fed-speakers-and-apple-earnings-to-watch-200690640",
          "retrieved_at": "2026-11-02T07:48:26+00:00"
        }
      },
      "significance": {
        "threshold": 5,
        "threshold_unit": "rank",
        "passed": true,
        "reason": "surfaced in the daily Exa news-cycle scan; mechanically matched to an active kalshi market"
      },
      "story": "Forecasters expect October nonfarm payrolls to more than double from the prior month to around 65,000, with the unemployment rate steady at 4.2%.",
      "publisher": "Ed Yardeni",
      "published_at": "2026-11-02T06:42:02.000Z",
      "source_url": "https://www.investing.com/analysis/economic-week-ahead-payrolls-fed-speakers-and-apple-earnings-to-watch-200690640"
    },
    {
      "type": "pm_response",
      "field_provenance": {
        "notes": {
          "tier": "editorial",
          "method": "llm_judge_cm_signal_v1"
        }
      },
      "notes": "Kalshi ladder provides the sharpest pricing on the October payrolls print, with the full strike distribution revealing a consensus near 60K-70K but a fat lower tail."
    }
  ],
  "sources": [
    {
      "label": "Ed Yardeni: Economic Week Ahead: Payrolls, Fed Speakers and Apple Earnings to Watc",
      "url": "https://www.investing.com/analysis/economic-week-ahead-payrolls-fed-speakers-and-apple-earnings-to-watch-200690640",
      "published_at": "2026-11-02T06:42:02.000Z",
      "retrieved_at": "2026-11-02T07:48:26+00:00"
    }
  ],
  "field_provenance": {
    "pm_data": "kalshi_api",
    "news_context": "exa_search",
    "editorial_judgment": "cm_signal_llm_judge"
  },
  "canonical_urls": {
    "html": "https://clearmarket.fyi/signals/oct-payrolls-kalshi-ladder-implies-60k-70k-2026-11-02/",
    "json": "https://clearmarket.fyi/signals/oct-payrolls-kalshi-ladder-implies-60k-70k-2026-11-02.json"
  },
  "license": "https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/",
  "_provenance_registry": {
    "direct": "Unaltered extraction from primary venue/source API (e.g., polymarket_clob_api, kalshi_api, BLS, FRED). Highest trust tier.",
    "mediated": "Information fetched via grounded agentic retrieval (e.g., perplexity_grounded). MUST carry source_url to the underlying primary source.",
    "derived": "Algorithmic computation from listed inputs. Chain only as fresh as the oldest input timestamp (see as_of).",
    "editorial": "Interpretive classification produced by a versioned LLM prompt template (prompts auditable in github.com/JDSource/clearmarket/prompts)."
  },
  "_provenance_canonical": "https://clearmarket.fyi/schema/provenance/v1"
}