{
  "$schema": "https://clearmarket.fyi/schema/signal/v1.json",
  "record_id": "CMSIG2026100902",
  "record_slug": "oct-payrolls-seen-60k-70k-kalshi-ladder-surges-2026-10-09",
  "schema_version": "v0.2.0",
  "provenance_version": "0.2.0",
  "published_at": "2026-10-09T00:00:00.000Z",
  "semantic_title": "October payrolls odds build around 60K to 70K range",
  "telemetry": "Kalshi ladder",
  "headline": "Oct payrolls seen 60K-70K: Kalshi ladder surges",
  "category_tag": "MOMENTUM_REPRICING",
  "secondary_tags": [],
  "detection_path": "news_cycle",
  "pre_news_classification": "concurrent",
  "status": {
    "state": "live",
    "as_of": "2026-10-21",
    "outcome": null,
    "outcome_basis": null,
    "final_price": null,
    "resolved_at": null
  },
  "target_event_id": "CM-EVT-6CSLHX0K76",
  "target_event_slug": "kxpayrolls-26oct",
  "event_question": "Nonfarm payrolls added, October 2026",
  "linked_event_ids": [],
  "primary_market": {
    "platform": "kalshi",
    "platform_market_id": "KXPAYROLLS-26OCT-T70000",
    "question_raw": "Will above 70000 jobs be added in October 2026?",
    "current_price": 0.47,
    "volume_24h_usd": 0,
    "arbitration_model": "kalshi_staff",
    "resolution_source": "BLS",
    "resolves_at": "2027-02-05T15:00:00Z"
  },
  "related_markets": [],
  "bullets": [
    "The Kalshi payrolls ladder puts the implied range for October at 60,000-70,000: 59% above 60K but only 47% above 70K.",
    "September's 29,000 print shocked to the downside, and trading volume on this contract exploded 1,045x day over day, the labor market outlook is drawing heavy fresh positioning.",
    "The ladder shows 86% above zero and 92% above negative 25,000, so the market is not pricing an outright contraction, just a soft trend month.",
    "The Kalshi contract on a Fed cut greater than 25 basis points this year holds at 3%, suggesting soft payrolls alone are not enough to shift the market toward aggressive easing."
  ],
  "atomic_claims": [
    {
      "type": "news_event",
      "field_provenance": {
        "story": {
          "tier": "mediated",
          "method": "exa_search",
          "source": "blog.e8markets.com",
          "source_url": "https://blog.e8markets.com/article/soft-us-jobs-report-tilts-october-fed-odds-toward-a-pause",
          "retrieved_at": "2026-10-09T14:55:32+00:00"
        }
      },
      "significance": {
        "threshold": 5,
        "threshold_unit": "rank",
        "passed": true,
        "reason": "surfaced in the daily Exa news-cycle scan; mechanically matched to an active kalshi market"
      },
      "story": "A soft September jobs print of just 29,000 nonfarm payrolls cooled October Fed rate-hike expectations and triggered broad cross-asset repricing.",
      "publisher": "blog.e8markets.com",
      "published_at": "2026-10-09T00:00:00.000Z",
      "source_url": "https://blog.e8markets.com/article/soft-us-jobs-report-tilts-october-fed-odds-toward-a-pause"
    },
    {
      "type": "pm_response",
      "field_provenance": {
        "notes": {
          "tier": "editorial",
          "method": "llm_judge_cm_signal_v1"
        }
      },
      "notes": "The Kalshi payrolls ladder volume surged over 1,000x day over day alongside the September miss, with October implied range clustering at 60K-70K."
    }
  ],
  "sources": [
    {
      "label": "blog.e8markets.com: Soft U.S. Jobs Report Tilts October Fed Odds Toward a Pause | E8 Marke",
      "url": "https://blog.e8markets.com/article/soft-us-jobs-report-tilts-october-fed-odds-toward-a-pause",
      "published_at": "2026-10-09T00:00:00.000Z",
      "retrieved_at": "2026-10-09T14:55:32+00:00"
    }
  ],
  "field_provenance": {
    "pm_data": "kalshi_api",
    "news_context": "exa_search",
    "editorial_judgment": "cm_signal_llm_judge"
  },
  "canonical_urls": {
    "html": "https://clearmarket.fyi/signals/oct-payrolls-seen-60k-70k-kalshi-ladder-surges-2026-10-09/",
    "json": "https://clearmarket.fyi/signals/oct-payrolls-seen-60k-70k-kalshi-ladder-surges-2026-10-09.json"
  },
  "license": "https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/",
  "_provenance_registry": {
    "direct": "Unaltered extraction from primary venue/source API (e.g., polymarket_clob_api, kalshi_api, BLS, FRED). Highest trust tier.",
    "mediated": "Information fetched via grounded agentic retrieval (e.g., perplexity_grounded). MUST carry source_url to the underlying primary source.",
    "derived": "Algorithmic computation from listed inputs. Chain only as fresh as the oldest input timestamp (see as_of).",
    "editorial": "Interpretive classification produced by a versioned LLM prompt template (prompts auditable in github.com/JDSource/clearmarket/prompts)."
  },
  "_provenance_canonical": "https://clearmarket.fyi/schema/provenance/v1"
}