{
  "$schema": "https://clearmarket.fyi/schema/signal/v1.json",
  "record_id": "CMSIG2026101303",
  "record_slug": "oct-payrolls-seen-at-50k-60k-prediction-market-ladder-2026-10-13",
  "schema_version": "v0.2.0",
  "provenance_version": "0.2.0",
  "published_at": "2026-10-13T00:00:00.000Z",
  "semantic_title": "October payrolls implied range holds at 50K to 60K jobs",
  "telemetry": "Kalshi ladder",
  "headline": "Oct payrolls seen at 50K-60K: prediction market ladder",
  "category_tag": "MOMENTUM_REPRICING",
  "secondary_tags": [],
  "detection_path": "news_cycle",
  "pre_news_classification": "concurrent",
  "status": {
    "state": "live",
    "as_of": "2026-10-21",
    "outcome": null,
    "outcome_basis": null,
    "final_price": null,
    "resolved_at": null
  },
  "target_event_id": "CM-EVT-6CSLHX0K76",
  "target_event_slug": "kxpayrolls-26oct",
  "event_question": "October 2026 nonfarm payrolls added",
  "linked_event_ids": [],
  "primary_market": {
    "platform": "kalshi",
    "platform_market_id": "KXPAYROLLS-26OCT-T60000",
    "question_raw": "Will above 60000 jobs be added in October 2026?",
    "current_price": 0.43,
    "volume_24h_usd": 0,
    "arbitration_model": "kalshi_staff",
    "resolution_source": "BLS",
    "resolves_at": "2027-02-05T15:00:00Z"
  },
  "related_markets": [],
  "bullets": [
    "The prediction market ladder implies October payrolls in the 50K-60K range: 56% above 50K but only 43% above 60K.",
    "The September miss of 29K (Story 3) is lagging news; the market prices October at a modest recovery, not a sustained collapse.",
    "The 86% probability above zero shows the market firmly rejects an outright contraction in October despite the September shock.",
    "Resolution uses the BLS Employment Situation report; single-month payroll prints are often revised, which may explain the market's above-zero confidence."
  ],
  "atomic_claims": [
    {
      "type": "news_event",
      "field_provenance": {
        "story": {
          "tier": "mediated",
          "method": "exa_search",
          "source": "Lei Fang Research Economist, Associate Adviser",
          "source_url": "https://www.atlantafed.org/research-and-data/publications/policy-hub-macroblog/2026/10/13/beyond-health-care-has-labor-market-improvement-broadened-in-2026",
          "retrieved_at": "2026-10-14T07:47:32+00:00"
        }
      },
      "significance": {
        "threshold": 5,
        "threshold_unit": "rank",
        "passed": true,
        "reason": "surfaced in the daily Exa news-cycle scan; mechanically matched to an active kalshi market"
      },
      "story": "The Atlanta Fed noted September nonfarm payrolls rose only 29,000, flagging broad labor market softness beyond health care.",
      "publisher": "Lei Fang Research Economist, Associate Adviser",
      "published_at": "2026-10-13T00:00:00.000Z",
      "source_url": "https://www.atlantafed.org/research-and-data/publications/policy-hub-macroblog/2026/10/13/beyond-health-care-has-labor-market-improvement-broadened-in-2026"
    },
    {
      "type": "pm_response",
      "field_provenance": {
        "notes": {
          "tier": "editorial",
          "method": "llm_judge_cm_signal_v1"
        }
      },
      "notes": "Prediction market ladder; the implied 50K-60K range represents a partial bounce from September's weak print but remains well below trend."
    }
  ],
  "sources": [
    {
      "label": "Lei Fang Research Economist, Associate Adviser: Beyond Health Care: Has Labor Market Improvement Broadened in 2026? -",
      "url": "https://www.atlantafed.org/research-and-data/publications/policy-hub-macroblog/2026/10/13/beyond-health-care-has-labor-market-improvement-broadened-in-2026",
      "published_at": "2026-10-13T00:00:00.000Z",
      "retrieved_at": "2026-10-14T07:47:32+00:00"
    }
  ],
  "field_provenance": {
    "pm_data": "kalshi_api",
    "news_context": "exa_search",
    "editorial_judgment": "cm_signal_llm_judge"
  },
  "canonical_urls": {
    "html": "https://clearmarket.fyi/signals/oct-payrolls-seen-at-50k-60k-prediction-market-ladder-2026-10-13/",
    "json": "https://clearmarket.fyi/signals/oct-payrolls-seen-at-50k-60k-prediction-market-ladder-2026-10-13.json"
  },
  "license": "https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/",
  "_provenance_registry": {
    "direct": "Unaltered extraction from primary venue/source API (e.g., polymarket_clob_api, kalshi_api, BLS, FRED). Highest trust tier.",
    "mediated": "Information fetched via grounded agentic retrieval (e.g., perplexity_grounded). MUST carry source_url to the underlying primary source.",
    "derived": "Algorithmic computation from listed inputs. Chain only as fresh as the oldest input timestamp (see as_of).",
    "editorial": "Interpretive classification produced by a versioned LLM prompt template (prompts auditable in github.com/JDSource/clearmarket/prompts)."
  },
  "_provenance_canonical": "https://clearmarket.fyi/schema/provenance/v1"
}