{
  "$schema": "https://clearmarket.fyi/schema/signal/v1.json",
  "record_id": "CMSIG2026102404",
  "record_slug": "oct-unemployment-rate-implied-4-1-4-2-kalshi-ladder-2026-10-24",
  "schema_version": "v0.2.0",
  "provenance_version": "0.2.0",
  "published_at": "2026-10-24T00:00:00.000Z",
  "semantic_title": "Unemployment rate odds cluster near 4.1 to 4.2 percent",
  "telemetry": "Kalshi ladder",
  "headline": "Oct unemployment rate implied 4.1-4.2%: Kalshi ladder",
  "category_tag": "MOMENTUM_REPRICING",
  "secondary_tags": [],
  "detection_path": "news_cycle",
  "pre_news_classification": "concurrent",
  "status": {
    "state": "live",
    "as_of": "2026-10-25",
    "outcome": null,
    "outcome_basis": null,
    "final_price": null,
    "resolved_at": null
  },
  "target_event_id": "CM-EVT-2X91TW50H2",
  "target_event_slug": "kxu3-26oct",
  "event_question": "October 2026 unemployment rate (U-3)",
  "linked_event_ids": [],
  "primary_market": {
    "platform": "kalshi",
    "platform_market_id": "KXU3-26OCT-T4.2",
    "question_raw": "Will the unemployment rate (U-3) be above 4.2% in October?",
    "current_price": 0.31,
    "volume_24h_usd": 0,
    "arbitration_model": "kalshi_staff",
    "resolution_source": "Bureau of Labor Statistics",
    "resolves_at": "2027-02-05T15:00:00Z"
  },
  "related_markets": [],
  "bullets": [
    "Kalshi ladder implies the October unemployment rate in the 4.1-4.2% range, with 68% above 4.1% but only 31% above 4.2%.",
    "Analyst commentary calling the labor market stable and at full employment is broadly consistent with the Kalshi distribution clustering near 4.1%.",
    "The sharp falloff from 68% above 4.1% to 31% above 4.2% signals markets see limited upside unemployment risk even after the weak October payrolls print of 29K.",
    "Resolution via Bureau of Labor Statistics Employment Situation report; the October figure will be released after this week's Fed meeting."
  ],
  "atomic_claims": [
    {
      "type": "news_event",
      "field_provenance": {
        "story": {
          "tier": "mediated",
          "method": "exa_search",
          "source": "Yelena Shulyatyeva",
          "source_url": "https://www.conference-board.org/research/labor-markets-briefs/jobs-report-insights-sept-2026",
          "retrieved_at": "2026-10-25T07:48:12+00:00"
        }
      },
      "significance": {
        "threshold": 5,
        "threshold_unit": "rank",
        "passed": true,
        "reason": "surfaced in the daily Exa news-cycle scan; mechanically matched to an active kalshi market"
      },
      "story": "September employment data were characterized as strong, with analysts concluding the labor market remains stable and the economy is at full employment, giving the Fed room to focus on inflation.",
      "publisher": "Yelena Shulyatyeva",
      "published_at": "2026-10-24T00:00:00.000Z",
      "source_url": "https://www.conference-board.org/research/labor-markets-briefs/jobs-report-insights-sept-2026"
    },
    {
      "type": "pm_response",
      "field_provenance": {
        "notes": {
          "tier": "editorial",
          "method": "llm_judge_cm_signal_v1"
        }
      },
      "notes": "Kalshi's unemployment rate ladder resolves via the Bureau of Labor Statistics Employment Situation release; the October 2026 reading has not yet been published as of today."
    }
  ],
  "sources": [
    {
      "label": "Yelena Shulyatyeva: Labor Market Strong Enough for Fed to Focus on Inflation",
      "url": "https://www.conference-board.org/research/labor-markets-briefs/jobs-report-insights-sept-2026",
      "published_at": "2026-10-24T00:00:00.000Z",
      "retrieved_at": "2026-10-25T07:48:12+00:00"
    }
  ],
  "field_provenance": {
    "pm_data": "kalshi_api",
    "news_context": "exa_search",
    "editorial_judgment": "cm_signal_llm_judge"
  },
  "canonical_urls": {
    "html": "https://clearmarket.fyi/signals/oct-unemployment-rate-implied-4-1-4-2-kalshi-ladder-2026-10-24/",
    "json": "https://clearmarket.fyi/signals/oct-unemployment-rate-implied-4-1-4-2-kalshi-ladder-2026-10-24.json"
  },
  "license": "https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/",
  "_provenance_registry": {
    "direct": "Unaltered extraction from primary venue/source API (e.g., polymarket_clob_api, kalshi_api, BLS, FRED). Highest trust tier.",
    "mediated": "Information fetched via grounded agentic retrieval (e.g., perplexity_grounded). MUST carry source_url to the underlying primary source.",
    "derived": "Algorithmic computation from listed inputs. Chain only as fresh as the oldest input timestamp (see as_of).",
    "editorial": "Interpretive classification produced by a versioned LLM prompt template (prompts auditable in github.com/JDSource/clearmarket/prompts)."
  },
  "_provenance_canonical": "https://clearmarket.fyi/schema/provenance/v1"
}