{
  "$schema": "https://clearmarket.fyi/schema/signal/v1.json",
  "record_id": "CMSIG2026080703",
  "record_slug": "oct-unemployment-seen-4-2-4-3-kalshi-ladder-2026-08-07",
  "schema_version": "v0.2.0",
  "provenance_version": "0.2.0",
  "published_at": "2026-08-07T00:00:00.000Z",
  "semantic_title": "October unemployment odds cluster near 4.2-4.3 percent",
  "telemetry": "Kalshi ladder",
  "headline": "Oct unemployment seen 4.2-4.3%: Kalshi ladder",
  "category_tag": "MOMENTUM_REPRICING",
  "secondary_tags": [],
  "detection_path": "news_cycle",
  "pre_news_classification": "concurrent",
  "status": {
    "state": "live",
    "as_of": "2026-09-05",
    "outcome": null,
    "outcome_basis": null,
    "final_price": null,
    "resolved_at": null
  },
  "target_event_id": "CM-EVT-2X91TW50H2",
  "target_event_slug": "kxu3-26oct",
  "event_question": "October 2026 unemployment rate (U-3)",
  "linked_event_ids": [],
  "primary_market": {
    "platform": "kalshi",
    "platform_market_id": "KXU3-26OCT-T4.3",
    "question_raw": "Will the unemployment rate (U-3) be above 4.3% in October?",
    "current_price": 0.43,
    "volume_24h_usd": 0,
    "arbitration_model": "kalshi_staff",
    "resolution_source": "Bureau of Labor Statistics",
    "resolves_at": "2027-02-05T15:00:00Z"
  },
  "related_markets": [],
  "bullets": [
    "Kalshi ladder implies October unemployment in the 4.2-4.3% range: 72% above 4.1%, 58% above 4.2%, but only 43% above 4.3%.",
    "July's 4.1% reading is consistent with the ladder's distribution, which already prices meaningful upside from current levels by October.",
    "The 87% probability above 4.0% reflects market skepticism that the labor market can hold near full employment through year-end.",
    "A companion Kalshi ladder for September unemployment (CM-EVT-720DZC17Y9) shows nearly identical 4.2-4.3% implied range, suggesting no near-term relief expected."
  ],
  "atomic_claims": [
    {
      "type": "news_event",
      "field_provenance": {
        "story": {
          "tier": "mediated",
          "method": "exa_search",
          "source": "Rachel Siegel",
          "source_url": "https://www.cnn.com/2026/08/07/economy/us-jobs-report-july-analysis",
          "retrieved_at": "2026-08-10T09:14:34+00:00"
        }
      },
      "significance": {
        "threshold": 5,
        "threshold_unit": "rank",
        "passed": true,
        "reason": "surfaced in the daily Exa news-cycle scan; mechanically matched to an active kalshi market"
      },
      "story": "The July unemployment rate eased slightly to 4.1% despite a net job loss of 23,000, leaving the labor market's trajectory ambiguous.",
      "publisher": "Rachel Siegel",
      "published_at": "2026-08-07T00:00:00.000Z",
      "source_url": "https://www.cnn.com/2026/08/07/economy/us-jobs-report-july-analysis"
    },
    {
      "type": "pm_response",
      "field_provenance": {
        "notes": {
          "tier": "editorial",
          "method": "llm_judge_cm_signal_v1"
        }
      },
      "notes": "Kalshi's October unemployment ladder shows a market pricing gradual drift higher, not a sharp recession spike, from the July 4.1% baseline."
    }
  ],
  "sources": [
    {
      "label": "Rachel Siegel: What the jobs report can’t tell us about the confounding economic mome",
      "url": "https://www.cnn.com/2026/08/07/economy/us-jobs-report-july-analysis",
      "published_at": "2026-08-07T00:00:00.000Z",
      "retrieved_at": "2026-08-10T09:14:34+00:00"
    }
  ],
  "field_provenance": {
    "pm_data": "kalshi_api",
    "news_context": "exa_search",
    "editorial_judgment": "cm_signal_llm_judge"
  },
  "canonical_urls": {
    "html": "https://clearmarket.fyi/signals/oct-unemployment-seen-4-2-4-3-kalshi-ladder-2026-08-07/",
    "json": "https://clearmarket.fyi/signals/oct-unemployment-seen-4-2-4-3-kalshi-ladder-2026-08-07.json"
  },
  "license": "https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/",
  "_provenance_registry": {
    "direct": "Unaltered extraction from primary venue/source API (e.g., polymarket_clob_api, kalshi_api, BLS, FRED). Highest trust tier.",
    "mediated": "Information fetched via grounded agentic retrieval (e.g., perplexity_grounded). MUST carry source_url to the underlying primary source.",
    "derived": "Algorithmic computation from listed inputs. Chain only as fresh as the oldest input timestamp (see as_of).",
    "editorial": "Interpretive classification produced by a versioned LLM prompt template (prompts auditable in github.com/JDSource/clearmarket/prompts)."
  },
  "_provenance_canonical": "https://clearmarket.fyi/schema/provenance/v1"
}