{
  "$schema": "https://clearmarket.fyi/schema/signal/v1.json",
  "record_id": "CMSIG2026060502",
  "record_slug": "october-2026-jobs-added-kalshi-implies-70k-80k-2026-06-05",
  "schema_version": "v0.2.0",
  "provenance_version": "0.2.0",
  "published_at": "2026-06-05T12:35:00.000Z",
  "semantic_title": "October payrolls consensus anchors in the 70K-80K range",
  "telemetry": "Kalshi ladder",
  "headline": "October 2026 jobs added: Kalshi implies 70K-80K",
  "category_tag": "MOMENTUM_REPRICING",
  "secondary_tags": [],
  "detection_path": "news_cycle",
  "pre_news_classification": "concurrent",
  "target_event_id": "CM-EVT-6CSLHX0K76",
  "target_event_slug": "kxpayrolls-26oct",
  "event_question": "October 2026 nonfarm payroll additions",
  "linked_event_ids": [],
  "primary_market": {
    "platform": "kalshi",
    "platform_market_id": "KXPAYROLLS-26OCT-T80000",
    "question_raw": "Will above 80000 jobs be added in October 2026?",
    "current_price": 0.45,
    "volume_24h_usd": 0,
    "arbitration_model": "kalshi_staff",
    "resolution_source": "Bureau Of Labor Statistics",
    "resolves_at": "2026-11-06T15:00:00Z"
  },
  "related_markets": [],
  "bullets": [
    "Kalshi ladder pins October 2026 payroll additions in the 70K-80K implied range; 79% above zero, only 24% above 100K.",
    "May's 172,000 print is well above the market's forward implied range for October, suggesting the market expects some moderation ahead.",
    "The sharp drop from 54% at the 50K strike to 24% at 100K marks where the distribution thins, showing meaningful tail risk below 100K.",
    "Resolves via Bureau of Labor Statistics monthly Employment Situation release for October 2026."
  ],
  "atomic_claims": [
    {
      "type": "news_event",
      "field_provenance": {
        "story": {
          "tier": "mediated",
          "method": "exa_search",
          "source": "cbsnews.com",
          "source_url": "https://www.cbsnews.com/news/jobs-report-today-may-2026-economy-iran-bls/",
          "retrieved_at": "2026-06-07T10:26:16+00:00"
        }
      },
      "significance": {
        "threshold": 5,
        "threshold_unit": "rank",
        "passed": true,
        "reason": "surfaced in the daily Exa news-cycle scan; mechanically matched to an active kalshi market"
      },
      "story": "May 2026 payrolls came in at 172,000, beating the 105,000 consensus, sustaining a three-month streak of solid job gains.",
      "publisher": "cbsnews.com",
      "published_at": "2026-06-05T12:35:00.000Z",
      "source_url": "https://www.cbsnews.com/news/jobs-report-today-may-2026-economy-iran-bls/"
    },
    {
      "type": "pm_response",
      "field_provenance": {
        "notes": {
          "tier": "editorial",
          "method": "llm_judge_cm_signal_v1"
        }
      },
      "notes": "Kalshi ladder distribution implies the market is not extrapolating May's strength into autumn, pricing a notably lower central tendency for October."
    }
  ],
  "sources": [
    {
      "label": "cbsnews.com: Employers added 172,000 jobs in May, surging past expectations as labo",
      "url": "https://www.cbsnews.com/news/jobs-report-today-may-2026-economy-iran-bls/",
      "published_at": "2026-06-05T12:35:00.000Z",
      "retrieved_at": "2026-06-07T10:26:16+00:00"
    }
  ],
  "field_provenance": {
    "pm_data": "kalshi_api",
    "news_context": "exa_search",
    "editorial_judgment": "cm_signal_llm_judge"
  },
  "canonical_urls": {
    "html": "https://clearmarket.fyi/signals/october-2026-jobs-added-kalshi-implies-70k-80k-2026-06-05/",
    "json": "https://clearmarket.fyi/signals/october-2026-jobs-added-kalshi-implies-70k-80k-2026-06-05.json"
  },
  "license": "https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/",
  "_provenance_registry": {
    "direct": "Unaltered extraction from primary venue/source API (e.g., polymarket_clob_api, kalshi_api, BLS, FRED). Highest trust tier.",
    "mediated": "Information fetched via grounded agentic retrieval (e.g., perplexity_grounded). MUST carry source_url to the underlying primary source.",
    "derived": "Algorithmic computation from listed inputs. Chain only as fresh as the oldest input timestamp (see as_of).",
    "editorial": "Interpretive classification produced by a versioned LLM prompt template (prompts auditable in github.com/JDSource/clearmarket/prompts)."
  },
  "_provenance_canonical": "https://clearmarket.fyi/schema/provenance/v1"
}