{
  "$schema": "https://clearmarket.fyi/schema/signal/v1.json",
  "record_id": "CMSIG2026100502",
  "record_slug": "october-fed-hike-kalshi-sees-20-above-4-25-2026-10-05",
  "schema_version": "v0.2.0",
  "provenance_version": "0.2.0",
  "published_at": "2026-10-05T00:00:00.000Z",
  "semantic_title": "October Fed hike stays near long-shot odds after weak payrolls",
  "telemetry": "Kalshi ladder",
  "headline": "October Fed hike: Kalshi sees ~20% above 4.25%",
  "category_tag": "MOMENTUM_REPRICING",
  "secondary_tags": [],
  "detection_path": "news_cycle",
  "pre_news_classification": "concurrent",
  "status": {
    "state": "live",
    "as_of": "2026-10-05",
    "outcome": null,
    "outcome_basis": null,
    "final_price": null,
    "resolved_at": null
  },
  "target_event_id": "CM-EVT-MR57HVWJT3",
  "target_event_slug": "kxfed-26dec",
  "event_question": "Federal funds upper bound (next meeting)",
  "linked_event_ids": [],
  "primary_market": {
    "platform": "kalshi",
    "platform_market_id": "KXFED-26DEC-T4.25",
    "question_raw": "Will the upper bound of the federal funds rate be above 4.25% following the Fed's Dec 9, 2026 meeting?",
    "current_price": 0.2,
    "volume_24h_usd": 137.73,
    "arbitration_model": "kalshi_staff",
    "resolution_source": "Federal Reserve Board of Governors",
    "resolves_at": "2026-12-16T19:05:00Z"
  },
  "related_markets": [],
  "bullets": [
    "Kalshi ladder prices only 20% above 4.25%, consistent with the roughly 18% hike odds cited in news coverage.",
    "Weak September payrolls of 29,000 align with the market's heavy skew toward a hold; the ladder and the news narrative are in agreement.",
    "The 78% above 4.0% reading confirms the market expects the rate to stay at 4.0-4.25%, not push higher.",
    "Resolution via the Federal Reserve's official rate decision announcement at the October FOMC meeting."
  ],
  "atomic_claims": [
    {
      "type": "news_event",
      "field_provenance": {
        "story": {
          "tier": "mediated",
          "method": "exa_search",
          "source": "Sunil Dhawan",
          "source_url": "https://www.financialexpress.com/market/global-markets/us-fed-october-rate-decision-why-a-rate-hike-is-still-on-the-table/4353959/",
          "retrieved_at": "2026-10-05T16:44:30+00:00"
        }
      },
      "significance": {
        "threshold": 5,
        "threshold_unit": "rank",
        "passed": true,
        "reason": "surfaced in the daily Exa news-cycle scan; mechanically matched to an active kalshi market"
      },
      "story": "Financial Express reports the Fed is likely to pause at its October FOMC meeting, with hike odds cited at roughly 18%.",
      "publisher": "Sunil Dhawan",
      "published_at": "2026-10-05T00:00:00.000Z",
      "source_url": "https://www.financialexpress.com/market/global-markets/us-fed-october-rate-decision-why-a-rate-hike-is-still-on-the-table/4353959/"
    },
    {
      "type": "pm_response",
      "field_provenance": {
        "notes": {
          "tier": "editorial",
          "method": "llm_judge_cm_signal_v1"
        }
      },
      "notes": "Kalshi ladder is the only priced source for this event; the implied range matches the hike-odds figure cited by Financial Express."
    }
  ],
  "sources": [
    {
      "label": "Sunil Dhawan: US Fed rate hike in October: Is a pause really a done deal? - Global M",
      "url": "https://www.financialexpress.com/market/global-markets/us-fed-october-rate-decision-why-a-rate-hike-is-still-on-the-table/4353959/",
      "published_at": "2026-10-05T00:00:00.000Z",
      "retrieved_at": "2026-10-05T16:44:30+00:00"
    }
  ],
  "field_provenance": {
    "pm_data": "kalshi_api",
    "news_context": "exa_search",
    "editorial_judgment": "cm_signal_llm_judge"
  },
  "canonical_urls": {
    "html": "https://clearmarket.fyi/signals/october-fed-hike-kalshi-sees-20-above-4-25-2026-10-05/",
    "json": "https://clearmarket.fyi/signals/october-fed-hike-kalshi-sees-20-above-4-25-2026-10-05.json"
  },
  "license": "https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/",
  "_provenance_registry": {
    "direct": "Unaltered extraction from primary venue/source API (e.g., polymarket_clob_api, kalshi_api, BLS, FRED). Highest trust tier.",
    "mediated": "Information fetched via grounded agentic retrieval (e.g., perplexity_grounded). MUST carry source_url to the underlying primary source.",
    "derived": "Algorithmic computation from listed inputs. Chain only as fresh as the oldest input timestamp (see as_of).",
    "editorial": "Interpretive classification produced by a versioned LLM prompt template (prompts auditable in github.com/JDSource/clearmarket/prompts)."
  },
  "_provenance_canonical": "https://clearmarket.fyi/schema/provenance/v1"
}