{
  "$schema": "https://clearmarket.fyi/schema/signal/v1.json",
  "record_id": "CMSIG2026100503",
  "record_slug": "october-jobs-above-60k-ladder-49-vs-51-above-70k-2026-10-05",
  "schema_version": "v0.2.0",
  "provenance_version": "0.2.0",
  "published_at": "2026-10-05T00:00:00.000Z",
  "semantic_title": "October payroll growth seen near 60-70K, market attention surges",
  "telemetry": "Kalshi ladder",
  "headline": "October jobs above 60K: ladder 49% vs 51% above 70K",
  "category_tag": "MOMENTUM_REPRICING",
  "secondary_tags": [],
  "detection_path": "news_cycle",
  "pre_news_classification": "concurrent",
  "status": {
    "state": "live",
    "as_of": "2026-10-21",
    "outcome": null,
    "outcome_basis": null,
    "final_price": null,
    "resolved_at": null
  },
  "target_event_id": "CM-EVT-6CSLHX0K76",
  "target_event_slug": "kxpayrolls-26oct",
  "event_question": "Jobs added in October 2026",
  "linked_event_ids": [],
  "primary_market": {
    "platform": "kalshi",
    "platform_market_id": "KXPAYROLLS-26OCT-T60000",
    "question_raw": "Will above 60000 jobs be added in October 2026?",
    "current_price": 0.49,
    "volume_24h_usd": 7.52,
    "arbitration_model": "kalshi_staff",
    "resolution_source": "BLS",
    "resolves_at": "2027-02-05T15:00:00Z"
  },
  "related_markets": [],
  "bullets": [
    "Kalshi ladder implies October payrolls in the 60,000-70,000 range: 49% above 60K, 51% above 70K, a near-even split around that band.",
    "Volume on this contract surged 42,526% day over day (426x), signaling a sharp spike in market attention following the mixed September employment report.",
    "The 91% probability above -25,000 and 84% above zero confirm markets are not pricing a contraction; the debate is entirely about the magnitude of growth.",
    "Resolves via Bureau of Labor Statistics official nonfarm payroll release for October 2026."
  ],
  "atomic_claims": [
    {
      "type": "news_event",
      "field_provenance": {
        "story": {
          "tier": "mediated",
          "method": "exa_search",
          "source": "Carson",
          "source_url": "https://www.randallandpobar.com/insights/blog/market-commentary-stubborn-inflation-problem-meets-a-goldilocks-jobs-report/",
          "retrieved_at": "2026-10-07T15:02:04+00:00"
        }
      },
      "significance": {
        "threshold": 5,
        "threshold_unit": "rank",
        "passed": true,
        "reason": "surfaced in the daily Exa news-cycle scan; mechanically matched to an active kalshi market"
      },
      "story": "September payrolls disappointed on the headline, but household employment and unemployment data pointed to underlying labor market resilience.",
      "publisher": "Carson",
      "published_at": "2026-10-05T00:00:00.000Z",
      "source_url": "https://www.randallandpobar.com/insights/blog/market-commentary-stubborn-inflation-problem-meets-a-goldilocks-jobs-report/"
    },
    {
      "type": "pm_response",
      "field_provenance": {
        "notes": {
          "tier": "editorial",
          "method": "llm_judge_cm_signal_v1"
        }
      },
      "notes": "The volume explosion on this Kalshi contract makes it the most actively repriced labor-market event today; the near-50/50 split around 60-70K reflects genuine uncertainty after a weak September headline."
    }
  ],
  "sources": [
    {
      "label": "Carson: Market commentary: Stubborn inflation problem meets a Goldilocks jobs",
      "url": "https://www.randallandpobar.com/insights/blog/market-commentary-stubborn-inflation-problem-meets-a-goldilocks-jobs-report/",
      "published_at": "2026-10-05T00:00:00.000Z",
      "retrieved_at": "2026-10-07T15:02:04+00:00"
    }
  ],
  "field_provenance": {
    "pm_data": "kalshi_api",
    "news_context": "exa_search",
    "editorial_judgment": "cm_signal_llm_judge"
  },
  "canonical_urls": {
    "html": "https://clearmarket.fyi/signals/october-jobs-above-60k-ladder-49-vs-51-above-70k-2026-10-05/",
    "json": "https://clearmarket.fyi/signals/october-jobs-above-60k-ladder-49-vs-51-above-70k-2026-10-05.json"
  },
  "license": "https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/",
  "_provenance_registry": {
    "direct": "Unaltered extraction from primary venue/source API (e.g., polymarket_clob_api, kalshi_api, BLS, FRED). Highest trust tier.",
    "mediated": "Information fetched via grounded agentic retrieval (e.g., perplexity_grounded). MUST carry source_url to the underlying primary source.",
    "derived": "Algorithmic computation from listed inputs. Chain only as fresh as the oldest input timestamp (see as_of).",
    "editorial": "Interpretive classification produced by a versioned LLM prompt template (prompts auditable in github.com/JDSource/clearmarket/prompts)."
  },
  "_provenance_canonical": "https://clearmarket.fyi/schema/provenance/v1"
}