{
  "$schema": "https://clearmarket.fyi/schema/signal/v1.json",
  "record_id": "CMSIG2026102004",
  "record_slug": "october-jobs-added-ladder-implies-70k-80k-2026-10-20",
  "schema_version": "v0.2.0",
  "provenance_version": "0.2.0",
  "published_at": "2026-10-20T00:00:00.000Z",
  "semantic_title": "October nonfarm payrolls seen around 70K-80K jobs added",
  "telemetry": "Kalshi ladder",
  "headline": "October jobs added: ladder implies 70K-80K",
  "category_tag": "MOMENTUM_REPRICING",
  "secondary_tags": [],
  "detection_path": "news_cycle",
  "pre_news_classification": "concurrent",
  "status": {
    "state": "live",
    "as_of": "2026-10-21",
    "outcome": null,
    "outcome_basis": null,
    "final_price": null,
    "resolved_at": null
  },
  "target_event_id": "CM-EVT-6CSLHX0K76",
  "target_event_slug": "kxpayrolls-26oct",
  "event_question": "October 2026 nonfarm payroll change",
  "linked_event_ids": [],
  "primary_market": {
    "platform": "kalshi",
    "platform_market_id": "KXPAYROLLS-26OCT-T80000",
    "question_raw": "Will above 80000 jobs be added in October 2026?",
    "current_price": 0.4,
    "volume_24h_usd": 4,
    "arbitration_model": "kalshi_staff",
    "resolution_source": "BLS",
    "resolves_at": "2027-02-05T15:00:00Z"
  },
  "related_markets": [],
  "bullets": [
    "The ladder places 50% above 70,000 and 40% above 80,000, with consensus pinned in the 70K-80K range for October payrolls.",
    "The ADP 4-week average of 18,500 weekly hires implies roughly 74,000 monthly, landing squarely in the ladder's consensus zone; the market is not fading the weak ADP signal.",
    "The 93% probability above negative 25,000 confirms the market still prices out a payroll contraction despite the softening hiring data.",
    "The October unemployment ladder (CM-EVT-2X91TW50H2) showing 4.1-4.2% is consistent: moderate payroll growth supports gradual unemployment drift, not a sharp spike."
  ],
  "atomic_claims": [
    {
      "type": "news_event",
      "field_provenance": {
        "story": {
          "tier": "mediated",
          "method": "exa_search",
          "source": "FXStreet Team",
          "source_url": "https://www.fxstreet.com/news/us-adp-employment-change-4-week-average-drops-to-1850k-202610201221",
          "retrieved_at": "2026-10-21T07:48:07+00:00"
        }
      },
      "significance": {
        "threshold": 5,
        "threshold_unit": "rank",
        "passed": true,
        "reason": "surfaced in the daily Exa news-cycle scan; mechanically matched to an active kalshi market"
      },
      "story": "ADP's NER Pulse showed US private employers added an average of only 18,500 jobs per week in early October, signaling a loss of hiring momentum.",
      "publisher": "FXStreet Team",
      "published_at": "2026-10-20T00:00:00.000Z",
      "source_url": "https://www.fxstreet.com/news/us-adp-employment-change-4-week-average-drops-to-1850k-202610201221"
    },
    {
      "type": "pm_response",
      "field_provenance": {
        "notes": {
          "tier": "editorial",
          "method": "llm_judge_cm_signal_v1"
        }
      },
      "notes": "The Kalshi ladder's 70K-80K implied range aligns tightly with the ADP weekly pulse data, suggesting no meaningful disagreement between the high-frequency hiring signal and market pricing."
    }
  ],
  "sources": [
    {
      "label": "FXStreet Team: US ADP Employment Change 4-week average drops to 18.50K",
      "url": "https://www.fxstreet.com/news/us-adp-employment-change-4-week-average-drops-to-1850k-202610201221",
      "published_at": "2026-10-20T00:00:00.000Z",
      "retrieved_at": "2026-10-21T07:48:07+00:00"
    }
  ],
  "field_provenance": {
    "pm_data": "kalshi_api",
    "news_context": "exa_search",
    "editorial_judgment": "cm_signal_llm_judge"
  },
  "canonical_urls": {
    "html": "https://clearmarket.fyi/signals/october-jobs-added-ladder-implies-70k-80k-2026-10-20/",
    "json": "https://clearmarket.fyi/signals/october-jobs-added-ladder-implies-70k-80k-2026-10-20.json"
  },
  "license": "https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/",
  "_provenance_registry": {
    "direct": "Unaltered extraction from primary venue/source API (e.g., polymarket_clob_api, kalshi_api, BLS, FRED). Highest trust tier.",
    "mediated": "Information fetched via grounded agentic retrieval (e.g., perplexity_grounded). MUST carry source_url to the underlying primary source.",
    "derived": "Algorithmic computation from listed inputs. Chain only as fresh as the oldest input timestamp (see as_of).",
    "editorial": "Interpretive classification produced by a versioned LLM prompt template (prompts auditable in github.com/JDSource/clearmarket/prompts)."
  },
  "_provenance_canonical": "https://clearmarket.fyi/schema/provenance/v1"
}