{
  "$schema": "https://clearmarket.fyi/schema/signal/v1.json",
  "record_id": "CMSIG2026102302",
  "record_slug": "october-jobs-added-seen-at-70k-80k-prediction-market-ladder-2026-10-23",
  "schema_version": "v0.2.0",
  "provenance_version": "0.2.0",
  "published_at": "2026-10-23T00:00:00.000Z",
  "semantic_title": "October payrolls market-implied range stays well above actual print",
  "telemetry": "Kalshi ladder",
  "headline": "October jobs added seen at 70K-80K: prediction market ladder",
  "category_tag": "MOMENTUM_REPRICING",
  "secondary_tags": [],
  "detection_path": "news_cycle",
  "pre_news_classification": "lagging",
  "status": {
    "state": "live",
    "as_of": "2026-10-24",
    "outcome": null,
    "outcome_basis": null,
    "final_price": null,
    "resolved_at": null
  },
  "target_event_id": "CM-EVT-6CSLHX0K76",
  "target_event_slug": "kxpayrolls-26oct",
  "event_question": "October 2026 nonfarm payrolls",
  "linked_event_ids": [],
  "primary_market": {
    "platform": "kalshi",
    "platform_market_id": "KXPAYROLLS-26OCT-T80000",
    "question_raw": "Will above 80000 jobs be added in October 2026?",
    "current_price": 0.45,
    "volume_24h_usd": 4.5,
    "arbitration_model": "kalshi_staff",
    "resolution_source": "BLS",
    "resolves_at": "2027-02-05T15:00:00Z"
  },
  "related_markets": [],
  "bullets": [
    "The prediction market ladder implies an October payrolls range of 70,000-80,000: 51% above 70K, only 45% above 80K.",
    "The reported 29,000 print sits well below the ladder's modal range, meaning the market was significantly more optimistic than the actual outcome.",
    "The Kalshi rate-hike path (CM-EVT-MR57HVWJT3) still prices 96% above 3.75% for the upper bound, suggesting markets are not yet fully revising the Fed tightening outlook despite the weak jobs number.",
    "Resolution is via the Bureau of Labor Statistics Employment Situation report; benchmark revisions could shift the final settled figure above or below the initial 29K print."
  ],
  "atomic_claims": [
    {
      "type": "news_event",
      "field_provenance": {
        "story": {
          "tier": "mediated",
          "method": "exa_search",
          "source": "Amelia Northam",
          "source_url": "https://quantumnova.tech/news/us-job-growth-slowed-sharply-in-october-as-unemployment-ticked-up-weighing-on-markets-and-fed-outlook",
          "retrieved_at": "2026-10-24T07:48:16+00:00"
        }
      },
      "significance": {
        "threshold": 5,
        "threshold_unit": "rank",
        "passed": true,
        "reason": "surfaced in the daily Exa news-cycle scan; mechanically matched to an active kalshi market"
      },
      "story": "The October payrolls report showed just 29,000 jobs added and a rising unemployment rate, sharply below consensus expectations.",
      "publisher": "Amelia Northam",
      "published_at": "2026-10-23T00:00:00.000Z",
      "source_url": "https://quantumnova.tech/news/us-job-growth-slowed-sharply-in-october-as-unemployment-ticked-up-weighing-on-markets-and-fed-outlook"
    },
    {
      "type": "pm_response",
      "field_provenance": {
        "notes": {
          "tier": "editorial",
          "method": "llm_judge_cm_signal_v1"
        }
      },
      "notes": "The prediction market ladder was positioned far above the actual payrolls print, reflecting a significant miss that had not been priced ahead of the release."
    }
  ],
  "sources": [
    {
      "label": "Amelia Northam: Weak October US payrolls (+29,000) and rising unemployment reshape mar",
      "url": "https://quantumnova.tech/news/us-job-growth-slowed-sharply-in-october-as-unemployment-ticked-up-weighing-on-markets-and-fed-outlook",
      "published_at": "2026-10-23T00:00:00.000Z",
      "retrieved_at": "2026-10-24T07:48:16+00:00"
    }
  ],
  "field_provenance": {
    "pm_data": "kalshi_api",
    "news_context": "exa_search",
    "editorial_judgment": "cm_signal_llm_judge"
  },
  "canonical_urls": {
    "html": "https://clearmarket.fyi/signals/october-jobs-added-seen-at-70k-80k-prediction-market-ladder-2026-10-23/",
    "json": "https://clearmarket.fyi/signals/october-jobs-added-seen-at-70k-80k-prediction-market-ladder-2026-10-23.json"
  },
  "license": "https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/",
  "_provenance_registry": {
    "direct": "Unaltered extraction from primary venue/source API (e.g., polymarket_clob_api, kalshi_api, BLS, FRED). Highest trust tier.",
    "mediated": "Information fetched via grounded agentic retrieval (e.g., perplexity_grounded). MUST carry source_url to the underlying primary source.",
    "derived": "Algorithmic computation from listed inputs. Chain only as fresh as the oldest input timestamp (see as_of).",
    "editorial": "Interpretive classification produced by a versioned LLM prompt template (prompts auditable in github.com/JDSource/clearmarket/prompts)."
  },
  "_provenance_canonical": "https://clearmarket.fyi/schema/provenance/v1"
}