{
  "$schema": "https://clearmarket.fyi/schema/signal/v1.json",
  "record_id": "CMSIG2026082803",
  "record_slug": "october-nonfarm-payrolls-seen-70k-80k-range-kalshi-ladder-2026-08-28",
  "schema_version": "v0.2.0",
  "provenance_version": "0.2.0",
  "published_at": "2026-08-28T00:00:00.000Z",
  "semantic_title": "Payroll odds stay near even around 70K-80K jobs for October",
  "telemetry": "Kalshi ladder",
  "headline": "October nonfarm payrolls seen 70K-80K range: Kalshi ladder",
  "category_tag": "MOMENTUM_REPRICING",
  "secondary_tags": [],
  "detection_path": "news_cycle",
  "pre_news_classification": "concurrent",
  "status": {
    "state": "live",
    "as_of": "2026-09-05",
    "outcome": null,
    "outcome_basis": null,
    "final_price": null,
    "resolved_at": null
  },
  "target_event_id": "CM-EVT-6CSLHX0K76",
  "target_event_slug": "kxpayrolls-26oct",
  "event_question": "October 2026 nonfarm payrolls",
  "linked_event_ids": [],
  "primary_market": {
    "platform": "kalshi",
    "platform_market_id": "KXPAYROLLS-26OCT-T80000",
    "question_raw": "Will above 80000 jobs be added in October 2026?",
    "current_price": 0.45,
    "volume_24h_usd": 0,
    "arbitration_model": "kalshi_staff",
    "resolution_source": "BLS",
    "resolves_at": "2027-02-05T15:00:00Z"
  },
  "related_markets": [],
  "bullets": [
    "The Kalshi ladder market-implied mode for October payrolls sits in the 70K-80K range, with 50% above 70K and 45% above 80K.",
    "RBC's 16K August forecast is far below the ladder's implied range, suggesting the prediction market currently prices a stronger payroll trajectory than the bank's near-term estimate implies.",
    "The 85% probability above minus-25K shows the market strongly discounts an outright contraction, even amid tariff and Fed headwinds.",
    "Resolution uses the Bureau of Labor Statistics official nonfarm payroll release for October; benchmark revisions (as in the recent BLS annual revision) can shift the final print after initial release."
  ],
  "atomic_claims": [
    {
      "type": "news_event",
      "field_provenance": {
        "story": {
          "tier": "mediated",
          "method": "exa_search",
          "source": "viktoriyapanahova",
          "source_url": "https://www.rbc.com/en/economics/us-week-ahead/labor-market-tightness-to-persist-despite-payroll-slowdown/",
          "retrieved_at": "2026-08-30T13:30:27+00:00"
        }
      },
      "significance": {
        "threshold": 5,
        "threshold_unit": "rank",
        "passed": true,
        "reason": "surfaced in the daily Exa news-cycle scan; mechanically matched to an active kalshi market"
      },
      "story": "RBC Economics forecasts only 16K jobs added in August, arguing labor market tightness persists despite a payroll slowdown.",
      "publisher": "viktoriyapanahova",
      "published_at": "2026-08-28T00:00:00.000Z",
      "source_url": "https://www.rbc.com/en/economics/us-week-ahead/labor-market-tightness-to-persist-despite-payroll-slowdown/"
    },
    {
      "type": "pm_response",
      "field_provenance": {
        "notes": {
          "tier": "editorial",
          "method": "llm_judge_cm_signal_v1"
        }
      },
      "notes": "Kalshi ladder shows a wide distribution; the market-implied range is meaningfully above RBC's August estimate, flagging a divergence worth watching into the September jobs report."
    }
  ],
  "sources": [
    {
      "label": "viktoriyapanahova: Labor market tightness to persist despite payroll slowdown - RBC Econo",
      "url": "https://www.rbc.com/en/economics/us-week-ahead/labor-market-tightness-to-persist-despite-payroll-slowdown/",
      "published_at": "2026-08-28T00:00:00.000Z",
      "retrieved_at": "2026-08-30T13:30:27+00:00"
    }
  ],
  "field_provenance": {
    "pm_data": "kalshi_api",
    "news_context": "exa_search",
    "editorial_judgment": "cm_signal_llm_judge"
  },
  "canonical_urls": {
    "html": "https://clearmarket.fyi/signals/october-nonfarm-payrolls-seen-70k-80k-range-kalshi-ladder-2026-08-28/",
    "json": "https://clearmarket.fyi/signals/october-nonfarm-payrolls-seen-70k-80k-range-kalshi-ladder-2026-08-28.json"
  },
  "license": "https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/",
  "_provenance_registry": {
    "direct": "Unaltered extraction from primary venue/source API (e.g., polymarket_clob_api, kalshi_api, BLS, FRED). Highest trust tier.",
    "mediated": "Information fetched via grounded agentic retrieval (e.g., perplexity_grounded). MUST carry source_url to the underlying primary source.",
    "derived": "Algorithmic computation from listed inputs. Chain only as fresh as the oldest input timestamp (see as_of).",
    "editorial": "Interpretive classification produced by a versioned LLM prompt template (prompts auditable in github.com/JDSource/clearmarket/prompts)."
  },
  "_provenance_canonical": "https://clearmarket.fyi/schema/provenance/v1"
}