{
  "$schema": "https://clearmarket.fyi/schema/signal/v1.json",
  "record_id": "CMSIG2026090103",
  "record_slug": "october-payroll-add-implied-60k-70k-kalshi-ladder-2026-09-01",
  "schema_version": "v0.2.0",
  "provenance_version": "0.2.0",
  "published_at": "2026-09-01T00:00:00.000Z",
  "semantic_title": "August payroll addition seen near 60K to 70K by prediction markets",
  "telemetry": "Kalshi ladder",
  "headline": "October payroll add implied 60K-70K: Kalshi ladder",
  "category_tag": "MOMENTUM_REPRICING",
  "secondary_tags": [],
  "detection_path": "news_cycle",
  "pre_news_classification": "concurrent",
  "status": {
    "state": "live",
    "as_of": "2026-09-05",
    "outcome": null,
    "outcome_basis": null,
    "final_price": null,
    "resolved_at": null
  },
  "target_event_id": "CM-EVT-6CSLHX0K76",
  "target_event_slug": "kxpayrolls-26oct",
  "event_question": "Nonfarm payroll jobs added, October 2026",
  "linked_event_ids": [],
  "primary_market": {
    "platform": "kalshi",
    "platform_market_id": "KXPAYROLLS-26OCT-T60000",
    "question_raw": "Will above 60000 jobs be added in October 2026?",
    "current_price": 0.48,
    "volume_24h_usd": 0,
    "arbitration_model": "kalshi_staff",
    "resolution_source": "BLS",
    "resolves_at": "2027-02-05T15:00:00Z"
  },
  "related_markets": [],
  "bullets": [
    "Ladder implies the market-weighted payroll add near 60K-70K: 54% above 50K, 48% above 60K, 50% above 70K, a notably flat distribution around that range.",
    "Wolfe Research's 65K August forecast lands squarely in the ladder's implied central range, suggesting the market is aligned with the soft-payroll consensus.",
    "Weak job growth would undercut the case for a September Fed hike, creating tension with the 72% Polymarket probability on a 2026 rate increase.",
    "The ladder covers October additions; August data prints Friday and will be the first live test of whether the sub-100K soft-landing narrative holds."
  ],
  "atomic_claims": [
    {
      "type": "news_event",
      "field_provenance": {
        "story": {
          "tier": "mediated",
          "method": "exa_search",
          "source": "weex.com",
          "source_url": "https://www.weex.com/news/detail/latest-non-farm-payroll-forecast-job-growth-may-slow-fed-faces-complex-choices-aqdf6iicgz6zdf7w4ih5ee9j",
          "retrieved_at": "2026-09-02T12:29:02+00:00"
        }
      },
      "significance": {
        "threshold": 5,
        "threshold_unit": "rank",
        "passed": true,
        "reason": "surfaced in the daily Exa news-cycle scan; mechanically matched to an active kalshi market"
      },
      "story": "Wolfe Research forecasts August nonfarm payrolls rising only 65,000, well below trend, complicating the Fed's rate-hike calculus ahead of the September meeting.",
      "publisher": "weex.com",
      "published_at": "2026-09-01T00:00:00.000Z",
      "source_url": "https://www.weex.com/news/detail/latest-non-farm-payroll-forecast-job-growth-may-slow-fed-faces-complex-choices-aqdf6iicgz6zdf7w4ih5ee9j"
    },
    {
      "type": "pm_response",
      "field_provenance": {
        "notes": {
          "tier": "editorial",
          "method": "llm_judge_cm_signal_v1"
        }
      },
      "notes": "Ladder distribution is unusually flat between 60K and 70K strikes, with the 50% crossover landing inside that range, a sign of genuine two-way uncertainty on the payroll print."
    }
  ],
  "sources": [
    {
      "label": "weex.com: Latest Non-Farm Payroll Forecast: Job Growth May Slow, Fed Faces Compl",
      "url": "https://www.weex.com/news/detail/latest-non-farm-payroll-forecast-job-growth-may-slow-fed-faces-complex-choices-aqdf6iicgz6zdf7w4ih5ee9j",
      "published_at": "2026-09-01T00:00:00.000Z",
      "retrieved_at": "2026-09-02T12:29:02+00:00"
    }
  ],
  "field_provenance": {
    "pm_data": "kalshi_api",
    "news_context": "exa_search",
    "editorial_judgment": "cm_signal_llm_judge"
  },
  "canonical_urls": {
    "html": "https://clearmarket.fyi/signals/october-payroll-add-implied-60k-70k-kalshi-ladder-2026-09-01/",
    "json": "https://clearmarket.fyi/signals/october-payroll-add-implied-60k-70k-kalshi-ladder-2026-09-01.json"
  },
  "license": "https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/",
  "_provenance_registry": {
    "direct": "Unaltered extraction from primary venue/source API (e.g., polymarket_clob_api, kalshi_api, BLS, FRED). Highest trust tier.",
    "mediated": "Information fetched via grounded agentic retrieval (e.g., perplexity_grounded). MUST carry source_url to the underlying primary source.",
    "derived": "Algorithmic computation from listed inputs. Chain only as fresh as the oldest input timestamp (see as_of).",
    "editorial": "Interpretive classification produced by a versioned LLM prompt template (prompts auditable in github.com/JDSource/clearmarket/prompts)."
  },
  "_provenance_canonical": "https://clearmarket.fyi/schema/provenance/v1"
}