{
  "$schema": "https://clearmarket.fyi/schema/signal/v1.json",
  "record_id": "CMSIG2026102103",
  "record_slug": "october-unemployment-rate-seen-at-4-1-4-2-ladder-2026-10-21",
  "schema_version": "v0.2.0",
  "provenance_version": "0.2.0",
  "published_at": "2026-10-21T00:00:00.000Z",
  "semantic_title": "Unemployment rate odds cluster near 4.1 to 4.2 percent in October",
  "telemetry": "Kalshi ladder",
  "headline": "October unemployment rate seen at 4.1-4.2%: ladder",
  "category_tag": "MOMENTUM_REPRICING",
  "secondary_tags": [],
  "detection_path": "news_cycle",
  "pre_news_classification": "concurrent",
  "status": {
    "state": "live",
    "as_of": "2026-10-24",
    "outcome": null,
    "outcome_basis": null,
    "final_price": null,
    "resolved_at": null
  },
  "target_event_id": "CM-EVT-2X91TW50H2",
  "target_event_slug": "kxu3-26oct",
  "event_question": "October 2026 unemployment rate (U-3)",
  "linked_event_ids": [],
  "primary_market": {
    "platform": "kalshi",
    "platform_market_id": "KXU3-26OCT-T4.2",
    "question_raw": "Will the unemployment rate (U-3) be above 4.2% in October?",
    "current_price": 0.31,
    "volume_24h_usd": 6.53,
    "arbitration_model": "kalshi_staff",
    "resolution_source": "Bureau of Labor Statistics",
    "resolves_at": "2027-02-05T15:00:00Z"
  },
  "related_markets": [],
  "bullets": [
    "The prediction market ladder implies October unemployment in the 4.1-4.2% range: 68% above 4.1%, 31% above 4.2%, and 93% above 4.0%.",
    "Jobless claims at 194,000, near 57-year lows, are consistent with the ladder's pricing that unemployment stays contained below 4.3%.",
    "The 29,000 October payrolls print (Story 8) introduces tension: a very weak jobs number alongside low claims suggests possible mix of hiring freeze and low layoffs simultaneously.",
    "Resolution is via the Bureau of Labor Statistics U-3 unemployment rate as published in the monthly Employment Situation report."
  ],
  "atomic_claims": [
    {
      "type": "news_event",
      "field_provenance": {
        "story": {
          "tier": "mediated",
          "method": "exa_search",
          "source": "investing.com",
          "source_url": "https://www.investing.com/news/stock-market-news/initial-jobless-claims-highlight-thursdays-economic-calendar-93CH-4963797",
          "retrieved_at": "2026-10-24T07:48:16+00:00"
        }
      },
      "significance": {
        "threshold": 5,
        "threshold_unit": "rank",
        "passed": true,
        "reason": "surfaced in the daily Exa news-cycle scan; mechanically matched to an active kalshi market"
      },
      "story": "Initial jobless claims fell to 194,000 for the prior week, a three-month low, underscoring labor market resilience ahead of the October jobs report.",
      "publisher": "investing.com",
      "published_at": "2026-10-21T00:00:00.000Z",
      "source_url": "https://www.investing.com/news/stock-market-news/initial-jobless-claims-highlight-thursdays-economic-calendar-93CH-4963797"
    },
    {
      "type": "pm_response",
      "field_provenance": {
        "notes": {
          "tier": "editorial",
          "method": "llm_judge_cm_signal_v1"
        }
      },
      "notes": "The ladder distributes probability tightly in the 4.1-4.2% zone, leaving less than 10% probability for unemployment at 4.3% or above."
    }
  ],
  "sources": [
    {
      "label": "investing.com: Initial jobless claims highlight Thursday’s economic calendar By Inves",
      "url": "https://www.investing.com/news/stock-market-news/initial-jobless-claims-highlight-thursdays-economic-calendar-93CH-4963797",
      "published_at": "2026-10-21T00:00:00.000Z",
      "retrieved_at": "2026-10-24T07:48:16+00:00"
    }
  ],
  "field_provenance": {
    "pm_data": "kalshi_api",
    "news_context": "exa_search",
    "editorial_judgment": "cm_signal_llm_judge"
  },
  "canonical_urls": {
    "html": "https://clearmarket.fyi/signals/october-unemployment-rate-seen-at-4-1-4-2-ladder-2026-10-21/",
    "json": "https://clearmarket.fyi/signals/october-unemployment-rate-seen-at-4-1-4-2-ladder-2026-10-21.json"
  },
  "license": "https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/",
  "_provenance_registry": {
    "direct": "Unaltered extraction from primary venue/source API (e.g., polymarket_clob_api, kalshi_api, BLS, FRED). Highest trust tier.",
    "mediated": "Information fetched via grounded agentic retrieval (e.g., perplexity_grounded). MUST carry source_url to the underlying primary source.",
    "derived": "Algorithmic computation from listed inputs. Chain only as fresh as the oldest input timestamp (see as_of).",
    "editorial": "Interpretive classification produced by a versioned LLM prompt template (prompts auditable in github.com/JDSource/clearmarket/prompts)."
  },
  "_provenance_canonical": "https://clearmarket.fyi/schema/provenance/v1"
}