{
  "$schema": "https://clearmarket.fyi/schema/signal/v1.json",
  "record_id": "CMSIG2026102108",
  "record_slug": "oh-12-house-winner-polymarket-94-2026-10-21",
  "schema_version": "v0.2.0",
  "provenance_version": "0.2.0",
  "published_at": "2026-10-21T00:00:00.000Z",
  "semantic_title": "OH-12 House race heavily priced for one outcome",
  "telemetry": "Polymarket 94%",
  "headline": "OH-12 House winner: Polymarket 94%",
  "category_tag": "MOMENTUM_REPRICING",
  "secondary_tags": [],
  "detection_path": "news_cycle",
  "pre_news_classification": "concurrent",
  "status": {
    "state": "live",
    "as_of": "2026-10-23",
    "outcome": null,
    "outcome_basis": null,
    "final_price": null,
    "resolved_at": null
  },
  "target_event_id": "CM-EVT-RTCH9V4FY5",
  "target_event_slug": "oh-12-house-election-winner",
  "event_question": "OH-12 House Election Winner",
  "linked_event_ids": [],
  "primary_market": {
    "platform": "polymarket",
    "platform_market_id": "0x6c5e0655740791fcdebcce7ffae3417e9bc14c2606594ae70b93a44c551dbb13",
    "question_raw": "Will the Republican Party win the OH-12 House seat?",
    "current_price": 0.94,
    "volume_24h_usd": 0,
    "arbitration_model": "uma_oracle",
    "resolves_at": "2026-11-03T00:00:00Z"
  },
  "related_markets": [],
  "bullets": [
    "Polymarket prices the OH-12 House Election Winner contract at 94%, reflecting a near-settled race despite procedural uncertainty in the broader midterm environment.",
    "Voting-rule disputes and Trump's focus on election mechanics introduce tail risk to certifications, but OH-12 at 94% shows the market is not pricing significant result-disruption risk.",
    "The midterm House turnout contract (CM-EVT-FMNSCSWMC8) saw trading volume surge 43,946% day-over-day, signaling sharp fresh interest in participation-level bets as Election Day approaches.",
    "Resolves via UMA oracle; settlement requires a certified winner in Ohio's 12th district, meaning post-election legal challenges could delay resolution."
  ],
  "atomic_claims": [
    {
      "type": "news_event",
      "field_provenance": {
        "story": {
          "tier": "mediated",
          "method": "exa_search",
          "source": "Amber Phillips",
          "source_url": "https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/2026/10/21/last-minute-battles-over-how-vote-midterm-elections/",
          "retrieved_at": "2026-10-22T07:47:56+00:00"
        }
      },
      "significance": {
        "threshold": 5,
        "threshold_unit": "rank",
        "passed": true,
        "reason": "surfaced in the daily Exa news-cycle scan; mechanically matched to an active polymarket market"
      },
      "story": "The Washington Post reported last-minute battles over midterm voting rules, with Trump focusing on voting machines and voter rolls ahead of November 3.",
      "publisher": "Amber Phillips",
      "published_at": "2026-10-21T00:00:00.000Z",
      "source_url": "https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/2026/10/21/last-minute-battles-over-how-vote-midterm-elections/"
    },
    {
      "type": "pm_response",
      "field_provenance": {
        "notes": {
          "tier": "editorial",
          "method": "llm_judge_cm_signal_v1"
        }
      },
      "notes": "Polymarket OH-12 contract at 94%; the midterm House turnout contract drew a 440x day-over-day volume spike, flagging elevated market attention to election mechanics."
    }
  ],
  "sources": [
    {
      "label": "Amber Phillips: The last-minute battles over how to vote in the midterm elections - Th",
      "url": "https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/2026/10/21/last-minute-battles-over-how-vote-midterm-elections/",
      "published_at": "2026-10-21T00:00:00.000Z",
      "retrieved_at": "2026-10-22T07:47:56+00:00"
    }
  ],
  "field_provenance": {
    "pm_data": "polymarket_api",
    "news_context": "exa_search",
    "editorial_judgment": "cm_signal_llm_judge"
  },
  "canonical_urls": {
    "html": "https://clearmarket.fyi/signals/oh-12-house-winner-polymarket-94-2026-10-21/",
    "json": "https://clearmarket.fyi/signals/oh-12-house-winner-polymarket-94-2026-10-21.json"
  },
  "license": "https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/",
  "_provenance_registry": {
    "direct": "Unaltered extraction from primary venue/source API (e.g., polymarket_clob_api, kalshi_api, BLS, FRED). Highest trust tier.",
    "mediated": "Information fetched via grounded agentic retrieval (e.g., perplexity_grounded). MUST carry source_url to the underlying primary source.",
    "derived": "Algorithmic computation from listed inputs. Chain only as fresh as the oldest input timestamp (see as_of).",
    "editorial": "Interpretive classification produced by a versioned LLM prompt template (prompts auditable in github.com/JDSource/clearmarket/prompts)."
  },
  "_provenance_canonical": "https://clearmarket.fyi/schema/provenance/v1"
}