{
  "$schema": "https://clearmarket.fyi/schema/signal/v1.json",
  "record_id": "CMSIG2026072207",
  "record_slug": "one-or-more-reconciliation-bills-in-2026-kalshi-73-2026-07-22",
  "schema_version": "v0.2.0",
  "provenance_version": "0.2.0",
  "published_at": "2026-07-22T00:00:00.000Z",
  "semantic_title": "Consensus backs at least one reconciliation bill passing in 2026",
  "telemetry": "Kalshi 73%",
  "headline": "One or more reconciliation bills in 2026: Kalshi 73%",
  "category_tag": "MOMENTUM_REPRICING",
  "secondary_tags": [],
  "detection_path": "news_cycle",
  "pre_news_classification": "concurrent",
  "status": {
    "state": "live",
    "as_of": "2026-07-28",
    "outcome": null,
    "outcome_basis": null,
    "final_price": null,
    "resolved_at": null
  },
  "target_event_id": "CM-EVT-1WV8R9JXH3",
  "target_event_slug": "kxreccount-27",
  "event_question": "How many reconciliation bills will be passed in 2026?",
  "linked_event_ids": [],
  "primary_market": {
    "platform": "kalshi",
    "platform_market_id": "KXRECCOUNT-27-1",
    "question_raw": "Will 1 reconciliation bills be passed in 2027?",
    "current_price": 0.73,
    "volume_24h_usd": 73,
    "arbitration_model": "kalshi_staff",
    "resolution_source": "Library of Congress",
    "resolves_at": "2027-01-02T15:00:00Z"
  },
  "related_markets": [],
  "bullets": [
    "Kalshi prices 73% probability that at least one reconciliation bill passes in 2026, reflecting meaningful but not certain legislative follow-through.",
    "House passage of a reconciliation blueprint is a concrete procedural step consistent with the 73% probability, the market is not skeptical of the news.",
    "The SAVE Act Kalshi contract sits at just 7%, showing the market sharply distinguishes between a reconciliation vehicle passing and any specific bill within it becoming law.",
    "Resolves via Library of Congress; Senate passage and presidential signature, not just House action, are required to resolve yes."
  ],
  "atomic_claims": [
    {
      "type": "news_event",
      "field_provenance": {
        "story": {
          "tier": "mediated",
          "method": "exa_search",
          "source": "Kate Santaliz",
          "source_url": "https://www.axios.com/2026/07/22/house-republicans-reconciliation-iran-funding-save-act",
          "retrieved_at": "2026-07-23T10:16:46+00:00"
        }
      },
      "significance": {
        "threshold": 5,
        "threshold_unit": "rank",
        "passed": true,
        "reason": "surfaced in the daily Exa news-cycle scan; mechanically matched to an active kalshi market"
      },
      "story": "House Republicans passed a blueprint for reconciliation 3.0 alongside a 95 billion dollar Iran war funding package, advancing Speaker Mike Johnson's legislative agenda.",
      "publisher": "Kate Santaliz",
      "published_at": "2026-07-22T00:00:00.000Z",
      "source_url": "https://www.axios.com/2026/07/22/house-republicans-reconciliation-iran-funding-save-act"
    },
    {
      "type": "pm_response",
      "field_provenance": {
        "notes": {
          "tier": "editorial",
          "method": "llm_judge_cm_signal_v1"
        }
      },
      "notes": "Kalshi at 73% on reconciliation passing versus 7% on the SAVE Act specifically reveals the market pricing a high probability of process success but deep uncertainty on any individual measure."
    }
  ],
  "sources": [
    {
      "label": "Kate Santaliz: House GOP passes blueprint for reconciliation 3.0",
      "url": "https://www.axios.com/2026/07/22/house-republicans-reconciliation-iran-funding-save-act",
      "published_at": "2026-07-22T00:00:00.000Z",
      "retrieved_at": "2026-07-23T10:16:46+00:00"
    }
  ],
  "field_provenance": {
    "pm_data": "kalshi_api",
    "news_context": "exa_search",
    "editorial_judgment": "cm_signal_llm_judge"
  },
  "canonical_urls": {
    "html": "https://clearmarket.fyi/signals/one-or-more-reconciliation-bills-in-2026-kalshi-73-2026-07-22/",
    "json": "https://clearmarket.fyi/signals/one-or-more-reconciliation-bills-in-2026-kalshi-73-2026-07-22.json"
  },
  "license": "https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/",
  "_provenance_registry": {
    "direct": "Unaltered extraction from primary venue/source API (e.g., polymarket_clob_api, kalshi_api, BLS, FRED). Highest trust tier.",
    "mediated": "Information fetched via grounded agentic retrieval (e.g., perplexity_grounded). MUST carry source_url to the underlying primary source.",
    "derived": "Algorithmic computation from listed inputs. Chain only as fresh as the oldest input timestamp (see as_of).",
    "editorial": "Interpretive classification produced by a versioned LLM prompt template (prompts auditable in github.com/JDSource/clearmarket/prompts)."
  },
  "_provenance_canonical": "https://clearmarket.fyi/schema/provenance/v1"
}