{
  "$schema": "https://clearmarket.fyi/schema/signal/v1.json",
  "record_id": "CMSIG2026061008",
  "record_slug": "paxton-and-collins-both-win-nov-2026-kalshi-39-2026-06-10",
  "schema_version": "v0.2.0",
  "provenance_version": "0.2.0",
  "published_at": "2026-06-10T00:00:00.000Z",
  "semantic_title": "Collins Maine win combined with Paxton Texas win wavers below even odds",
  "telemetry": "Kalshi 39%",
  "headline": "Paxton AND Collins both win Nov 2026: Kalshi 39%",
  "category_tag": "MOMENTUM_REPRICING",
  "secondary_tags": [],
  "detection_path": "news_cycle",
  "pre_news_classification": "concurrent",
  "status": {
    "state": "live",
    "as_of": "2026-07-21",
    "outcome": null,
    "outcome_basis": null,
    "final_price": null,
    "resolved_at": null
  },
  "target_event_id": "CM-EVT-DHD47MSVK6",
  "target_event_slug": "kxmetxcombo-26nov",
  "event_question": "Will Texas Senate be Ken Paxton wins AND Maine Senate be Susan Collins wins for Nov 2026?",
  "linked_event_ids": [],
  "primary_market": {
    "platform": "kalshi",
    "platform_market_id": "KXMETXCOMBO-26NOV-PAX-COL",
    "question_raw": "Will Texas Senate be Ken Paxton wins AND Maine Senate be Susan Collins wins for Nov 2026?",
    "current_price": 0.39,
    "volume_24h_usd": 3142.05,
    "arbitration_model": "kalshi_staff",
    "resolution_source": "Bureau of Labor Statistics",
    "resolves_at": "2027-11-03T14:00:00Z"
  },
  "related_markets": [],
  "bullets": [
    "Kalshi prices 39% on both Ken Paxton winning Texas and Susan Collins winning Maine in the November 2026 elections.",
    "Platner's primary win is consistent with the below-50% pricing, the market treats the Maine seat as genuinely competitive, dragging down the joint probability.",
    "A separate Kalshi contract prices 99% on Collins as the Republican nominee, confirming the market sees no GOP primary risk; the competitiveness is entirely in the general election.",
    "Resolves via Bureau of Labor Statistics per the named resolution source, though this appears to be a joint electoral outcome contract; resolution mechanics depend on both state certification results."
  ],
  "atomic_claims": [
    {
      "type": "news_event",
      "field_provenance": {
        "story": {
          "tier": "mediated",
          "method": "exa_search",
          "source": "bbc.co.uk",
          "source_url": "https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/c79yzzvddnlo",
          "retrieved_at": "2026-06-11T12:08:11+00:00"
        }
      },
      "significance": {
        "threshold": 5,
        "threshold_unit": "rank",
        "passed": true,
        "reason": "surfaced in the daily Exa news-cycle scan; mechanically matched to an active kalshi market"
      },
      "story": "Democrat Graham Platner, an oyster farmer, won the Maine Democratic Senate primary, setting up a general election challenge against longtime Republican Senator Susan Collins.",
      "publisher": "bbc.co.uk",
      "published_at": "2026-06-10T00:00:00.000Z",
      "source_url": "https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/c79yzzvddnlo"
    },
    {
      "type": "pm_response",
      "field_provenance": {
        "notes": {
          "tier": "editorial",
          "method": "llm_judge_cm_signal_v1"
        }
      },
      "notes": "Kalshi's 39% joint probability on Paxton and Collins both winning reflects the Maine seat's competitive general-election outlook after Platner's primary win, with Collins's nomination itself at 99%."
    }
  ],
  "sources": [
    {
      "label": "bbc.co.uk: Platner wins Maine primary to challenge Collins - BBC News",
      "url": "https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/c79yzzvddnlo",
      "published_at": "2026-06-10T00:00:00.000Z",
      "retrieved_at": "2026-06-11T12:08:11+00:00"
    }
  ],
  "field_provenance": {
    "pm_data": "kalshi_api",
    "news_context": "exa_search",
    "editorial_judgment": "cm_signal_llm_judge"
  },
  "canonical_urls": {
    "html": "https://clearmarket.fyi/signals/paxton-and-collins-both-win-nov-2026-kalshi-39-2026-06-10/",
    "json": "https://clearmarket.fyi/signals/paxton-and-collins-both-win-nov-2026-kalshi-39-2026-06-10.json"
  },
  "license": "https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/",
  "_provenance_registry": {
    "direct": "Unaltered extraction from primary venue/source API (e.g., polymarket_clob_api, kalshi_api, BLS, FRED). Highest trust tier.",
    "mediated": "Information fetched via grounded agentic retrieval (e.g., perplexity_grounded). MUST carry source_url to the underlying primary source.",
    "derived": "Algorithmic computation from listed inputs. Chain only as fresh as the oldest input timestamp (see as_of).",
    "editorial": "Interpretive classification produced by a versioned LLM prompt template (prompts auditable in github.com/JDSource/clearmarket/prompts)."
  },
  "_provenance_canonical": "https://clearmarket.fyi/schema/provenance/v1"
}