{
  "$schema": "https://clearmarket.fyi/schema/signal/v1.json",
  "record_id": "CMSIG2026090704",
  "record_slug": "peak-unemployment-below-4-5-before-2027-kalshi-84-2026-09-07",
  "schema_version": "v0.2.0",
  "provenance_version": "0.2.0",
  "published_at": "2026-09-07T00:00:00.000Z",
  "semantic_title": "Unemployment staying below 4.5 percent remains the consensus",
  "telemetry": "Kalshi ladder",
  "headline": "Peak unemployment below 4.5% before 2027: Kalshi 84%",
  "category_tag": "MOMENTUM_REPRICING",
  "secondary_tags": [],
  "detection_path": "news_cycle",
  "pre_news_classification": "concurrent",
  "status": {
    "state": "live",
    "as_of": "2026-09-09",
    "outcome": null,
    "outcome_basis": null,
    "final_price": null,
    "resolved_at": null
  },
  "target_event_id": "CM-EVT-RBY62SKLC0",
  "target_event_slug": "kxu3max-27",
  "event_question": "Peak US unemployment rate before 2027",
  "linked_event_ids": [],
  "primary_market": {
    "platform": "kalshi",
    "platform_market_id": "KXU3MAX-27-4.5",
    "question_raw": "How high will unemployment get before 2027?",
    "current_price": 0.16,
    "volume_24h_usd": 0.8,
    "arbitration_model": "kalshi_staff",
    "resolution_source": "Bureau of Labor Statistics",
    "resolves_at": "2027-03-09T15:00:00Z"
  },
  "related_markets": [],
  "bullets": [
    "Kalshi ladder implies peak unemployment before 2027 stays below 4.5%: only 16% probability at the 4.5% strike, with higher strikes pricing 7% or less.",
    "The blowout jobs report is consistent with this low-peak pricing; the market is not treating the strong payroll print as a precursor to labor market deterioration.",
    "Above 5.0% unemployment before 2027 prices at just 2%, reflecting near-full market dismissal of a recession-level labor shock this cycle.",
    "Resolution via Kalshi; the contract tracks the highest monthly unemployment rate reported by the Bureau of Labor Statistics before January 2027."
  ],
  "atomic_claims": [
    {
      "type": "news_event",
      "field_provenance": {
        "story": {
          "tier": "mediated",
          "method": "exa_search",
          "source": "gryphonfp.com",
          "source_url": "https://gryphonfp.com/blog/162000-jobs-a-smaller-labor-force-and-a-fed-that-is-arguing-about-hikes/",
          "retrieved_at": "2026-09-09T12:40:02+00:00"
        }
      },
      "significance": {
        "threshold": 5,
        "threshold_unit": "rank",
        "passed": true,
        "reason": "surfaced in the daily Exa news-cycle scan; mechanically matched to an active kalshi market"
      },
      "story": "August payrolls of 162,000 beat forecasts by roughly three times, reinforcing a resilient labor market picture as the Fed debates rate hikes.",
      "publisher": "gryphonfp.com",
      "published_at": "2026-09-07T00:00:00.000Z",
      "source_url": "https://gryphonfp.com/blog/162000-jobs-a-smaller-labor-force-and-a-fed-that-is-arguing-about-hikes/"
    },
    {
      "type": "pm_response",
      "field_provenance": {
        "notes": {
          "tier": "editorial",
          "method": "llm_judge_cm_signal_v1"
        }
      },
      "notes": "Kalshi ladder prices unemployment risk as heavily left-tailed; sub-4.5% peak is the strong consensus consistent with the current jobs resilience narrative."
    }
  ],
  "sources": [
    {
      "label": "gryphonfp.com: 162,000 Jobs, a Smaller Labor Force, and a Fed That Is Arguing About H",
      "url": "https://gryphonfp.com/blog/162000-jobs-a-smaller-labor-force-and-a-fed-that-is-arguing-about-hikes/",
      "published_at": "2026-09-07T00:00:00.000Z",
      "retrieved_at": "2026-09-09T12:40:02+00:00"
    }
  ],
  "field_provenance": {
    "pm_data": "kalshi_api",
    "news_context": "exa_search",
    "editorial_judgment": "cm_signal_llm_judge"
  },
  "canonical_urls": {
    "html": "https://clearmarket.fyi/signals/peak-unemployment-below-4-5-before-2027-kalshi-84-2026-09-07/",
    "json": "https://clearmarket.fyi/signals/peak-unemployment-below-4-5-before-2027-kalshi-84-2026-09-07.json"
  },
  "license": "https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/",
  "_provenance_registry": {
    "direct": "Unaltered extraction from primary venue/source API (e.g., polymarket_clob_api, kalshi_api, BLS, FRED). Highest trust tier.",
    "mediated": "Information fetched via grounded agentic retrieval (e.g., perplexity_grounded). MUST carry source_url to the underlying primary source.",
    "derived": "Algorithmic computation from listed inputs. Chain only as fresh as the oldest input timestamp (see as_of).",
    "editorial": "Interpretive classification produced by a versioned LLM prompt template (prompts auditable in github.com/JDSource/clearmarket/prompts)."
  },
  "_provenance_canonical": "https://clearmarket.fyi/schema/provenance/v1"
}