{
  "$schema": "https://clearmarket.fyi/schema/signal/v1.json",
  "record_id": "CMSIG2026082003",
  "record_slug": "peak-us-unemployment-before-2027-ladder-below-4-5-2026-08-20",
  "schema_version": "v0.2.0",
  "provenance_version": "0.2.0",
  "published_at": "2026-08-20T00:00:00.000Z",
  "semantic_title": "Peak unemployment below 4.5% stays the consensus call",
  "telemetry": "Kalshi ladder",
  "headline": "Peak US unemployment before 2027: ladder below 4.5%",
  "category_tag": "MOMENTUM_REPRICING",
  "secondary_tags": [],
  "detection_path": "news_cycle",
  "pre_news_classification": "concurrent",
  "status": {
    "state": "live",
    "as_of": "2026-09-05",
    "outcome": null,
    "outcome_basis": null,
    "final_price": null,
    "resolved_at": null
  },
  "target_event_id": "CM-EVT-RBY62SKLC0",
  "target_event_slug": "kxu3max-27",
  "event_question": "Peak US unemployment rate before 2027",
  "linked_event_ids": [],
  "primary_market": {
    "platform": "kalshi",
    "platform_market_id": "KXU3MAX-27-4.5",
    "question_raw": "How high will unemployment get before 2027?",
    "current_price": 0.21,
    "volume_24h_usd": 1.47,
    "arbitration_model": "kalshi_staff",
    "resolution_source": "Bureau of Labor Statistics",
    "resolves_at": "2027-03-09T15:00:00Z"
  },
  "related_markets": [],
  "bullets": [
    "Ladder pricing puts peak unemployment below 4.5% as the base case: only 21% of probability sits at 4.5% or above.",
    "Claims at 206,000 are consistent with this subdued tail, the market is not pricing a significant unemployment spike.",
    "The distribution has a long, flat tail from 5.0% to 20.0%, each capturing only 1-5%, reflecting low-probability recession scenarios.",
    "A companion ladder (CM-EVT-720DZC17Y9) implies the September U-3 rate near 4.2-4.3%, consistent with modest upward drift from the July 4.1% print."
  ],
  "atomic_claims": [
    {
      "type": "news_event",
      "field_provenance": {
        "story": {
          "tier": "mediated",
          "method": "exa_search",
          "source": "apnews.com",
          "source_url": "https://apnews.com/article/unemployment-claims-jobs-economy-layoffs-5d623586cbcf1eeeaa6ee6cc084ed566",
          "retrieved_at": "2026-08-23T08:24:02+00:00"
        }
      },
      "significance": {
        "threshold": 5,
        "threshold_unit": "rank",
        "passed": true,
        "reason": "surfaced in the daily Exa news-cycle scan; mechanically matched to an active kalshi market"
      },
      "story": "Initial jobless claims fell to 206,000, with layoffs remaining comparatively sparse across the labor market.",
      "publisher": "apnews.com",
      "published_at": "2026-08-20T00:00:00.000Z",
      "source_url": "https://apnews.com/article/unemployment-claims-jobs-economy-layoffs-5d623586cbcf1eeeaa6ee6cc084ed566"
    },
    {
      "type": "pm_response",
      "field_provenance": {
        "notes": {
          "tier": "editorial",
          "method": "llm_judge_cm_signal_v1"
        }
      },
      "notes": "Ladder resolved via FRED unemployment data; the 21% at 4.5% is the first meaningful probability mass above the current rate."
    }
  ],
  "sources": [
    {
      "label": "apnews.com: US unemployment claims fall with layoffs still comparatively sparse |",
      "url": "https://apnews.com/article/unemployment-claims-jobs-economy-layoffs-5d623586cbcf1eeeaa6ee6cc084ed566",
      "published_at": "2026-08-20T00:00:00.000Z",
      "retrieved_at": "2026-08-23T08:24:02+00:00"
    }
  ],
  "field_provenance": {
    "pm_data": "kalshi_api",
    "news_context": "exa_search",
    "editorial_judgment": "cm_signal_llm_judge"
  },
  "canonical_urls": {
    "html": "https://clearmarket.fyi/signals/peak-us-unemployment-before-2027-ladder-below-4-5-2026-08-20/",
    "json": "https://clearmarket.fyi/signals/peak-us-unemployment-before-2027-ladder-below-4-5-2026-08-20.json"
  },
  "license": "https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/",
  "_provenance_registry": {
    "direct": "Unaltered extraction from primary venue/source API (e.g., polymarket_clob_api, kalshi_api, BLS, FRED). Highest trust tier.",
    "mediated": "Information fetched via grounded agentic retrieval (e.g., perplexity_grounded). MUST carry source_url to the underlying primary source.",
    "derived": "Algorithmic computation from listed inputs. Chain only as fresh as the oldest input timestamp (see as_of).",
    "editorial": "Interpretive classification produced by a versioned LLM prompt template (prompts auditable in github.com/JDSource/clearmarket/prompts)."
  },
  "_provenance_canonical": "https://clearmarket.fyi/schema/provenance/v1"
}