{
  "$schema": "https://clearmarket.fyi/schema/signal/v1.json",
  "record_id": "CMSIG20261005VS02",
  "record_slug": "pedro-s-nchez-out-as-pm-of-spain-by-dece-vol-93810",
  "schema_version": "v0.2.0",
  "provenance_version": "0.2.0",
  "published_at": "2026-10-05T16:45:18+00:00",
  "semantic_title": "Traders back Sánchez exit odds at 27% by year-end",
  "telemetry": "27% · $94K 24h",
  "headline": "Sánchez out by Dec 31: 27% on $94K",
  "category_tag": "VOLUME_SPIKE",
  "secondary_tags": [],
  "detection_path": "volume_spike",
  "pre_news_classification": "pre_news",
  "status": {
    "state": "live",
    "as_of": "2026-10-05",
    "outcome": null,
    "outcome_basis": null,
    "final_price": null,
    "resolved_at": null
  },
  "target_event_id": "CM-EVT-1HSNRBYJ42",
  "target_event_slug": "pedro-snchez-out-as-pm-of-spain-by",
  "event_question": "Will Pedro Sánchez be out as Prime Minister of Spain by 2026?",
  "linked_event_ids": [],
  "primary_market": {
    "platform": "polymarket",
    "platform_market_id": "0x890f9b8de730479549e95027f26aad5ce89ecc4a42a6fd6316d0b0aec9a5aad1",
    "question_raw": "Pedro Sánchez out as PM of Spain by December 31, 2026?",
    "current_price": 0.27,
    "volume_24h_usd": 93810.857139,
    "volume_cumulative_usd": 330732.60380599997,
    "arbitration_model": "uma_oracle",
    "resolves_at": "2026-12-31T00:00:00Z"
  },
  "related_markets": [],
  "bullets": [
    "Polymarket prices a Sánchez departure by December 31, 2026 at 27%, meaningful but not the base case.",
    "$94K in 24h represents 28% of all-time volume, pointing to a discrete catalyst driving attention.",
    "Spanish coalition fragility and budget deadlines in Q4 are the nearest pressure points.",
    "Contract resolves December 31, 2026."
  ],
  "atomic_claims": [
    {
      "type": "volume_anomaly",
      "provenance": "24h + cumulative volume direct from polymarket API; intensity = 24h/cumulative (derived)",
      "field_provenance": {
        "volume_24h_usd": {
          "tier": "direct",
          "method": "polymarket_api"
        },
        "intensity": {
          "tier": "derived",
          "method": "arithmetic",
          "inputs": [
            "volume_24h_usd",
            "volume_cumulative_usd"
          ]
        }
      },
      "liquidity_context": {
        "poly_vol_24h_usd": 93810.857139
      }
    }
  ],
  "sources": [
    {
      "label": "ClearMarket market record: Will Pedro Sánchez be out as Prime Minister of Spain by",
      "url": "https://clearmarket.fyi/events/pedro-snchez-out-as-pm-of-spain-by",
      "retrieved_at": "2026-10-05T16:45:18+00:00"
    }
  ],
  "field_provenance": {
    "pm_data": "polymarket_api",
    "news_context": "retrieval_grounded",
    "editorial_judgment": "cm_signal_llm_judge"
  },
  "canonical_urls": {
    "html": "https://clearmarket.fyi/signals/pedro-s-nchez-out-as-pm-of-spain-by-dece-vol-93810/",
    "json": "https://clearmarket.fyi/signals/pedro-s-nchez-out-as-pm-of-spain-by-dece-vol-93810.json"
  },
  "license": "https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/",
  "_provenance_registry": {
    "direct": "Unaltered extraction from primary venue/source API (e.g., polymarket_clob_api, kalshi_api, BLS, FRED). Highest trust tier.",
    "mediated": "Information fetched via grounded agentic retrieval (e.g., perplexity_grounded). MUST carry source_url to the underlying primary source.",
    "derived": "Algorithmic computation from listed inputs. Chain only as fresh as the oldest input timestamp (see as_of).",
    "editorial": "Interpretive classification produced by a versioned LLM prompt template (prompts auditable in github.com/JDSource/clearmarket/prompts)."
  },
  "_provenance_canonical": "https://clearmarket.fyi/schema/provenance/v1"
}