{
  "$schema": "https://clearmarket.fyi/schema/signal/v1.json",
  "record_id": "CMSIG2026070908",
  "record_slug": "platner-nominates-and-dem-wins-maine-senate-kalshi-64-2026-07-09",
  "schema_version": "v0.2.0",
  "provenance_version": "0.2.0",
  "published_at": "2026-07-09T02:12:39.000Z",
  "semantic_title": "Platner-plus-Dem-win combo holds at modest discount in Maine",
  "telemetry": "Kalshi 64%",
  "headline": "Platner nominates AND Dem wins Maine Senate: Kalshi 64%",
  "category_tag": "MOMENTUM_REPRICING",
  "secondary_tags": [],
  "detection_path": "news_cycle",
  "pre_news_classification": "concurrent",
  "target_event_id": "CM-EVT-2KYR51YTD3",
  "target_event_slug": "kxmesenoutcome-27jan",
  "event_question": "Will Dem Nominee be Graham Platner AND General Election Winner be Democrat for Jan 2027?",
  "linked_event_ids": [],
  "primary_market": {
    "platform": "kalshi",
    "platform_market_id": "KXMESENOUTCOME-27JAN-GPD",
    "question_raw": "Will Dem Nominee be Graham Platner AND General Election Winner be Democrat for Jan 2027?",
    "current_price": 0.64,
    "volume_24h_usd": 2803.18,
    "arbitration_model": "kalshi_staff",
    "resolution_source": "Bureau of Labor Statistics",
    "resolves_at": "2027-01-01T15:00:00Z"
  },
  "related_markets": [],
  "bullets": [
    "Kalshi prices 64% on Graham Platner winning the Democratic nomination AND Democrats winning the Maine Senate general election, a compound probability.",
    "News of a 'disastrous candidacy' and Maine Democratic Party declaring war on Platner are in tension with the 64% combined probability still holding.",
    "The compound nature of the contract means the 64% reflects both nomination likelihood and general election competitiveness; party division could depress both legs.",
    "Resolves via Bureau of Labor Statistics per the contract terms, an unusual resolution source for an election outcome; resolution mechanic should be verified for edge cases."
  ],
  "atomic_claims": [
    {
      "type": "news_event",
      "field_provenance": {
        "story": {
          "tier": "mediated",
          "method": "exa_search",
          "source": "bbc.com",
          "source_url": "https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/c20ylnn8wqgo",
          "retrieved_at": "2026-07-09T10:56:21+00:00"
        }
      },
      "significance": {
        "threshold": 5,
        "threshold_unit": "rank",
        "passed": true,
        "reason": "surfaced in the daily Exa news-cycle scan; mechanically matched to an active kalshi market"
      },
      "story": "Graham Platner's candidacy has exposed deep rifts in the Maine Democratic Party, with reports of a disastrous campaign dampening hopes for a Democratic Senate pickup.",
      "publisher": "bbc.com",
      "published_at": "2026-07-09T02:12:39.000Z",
      "source_url": "https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/c20ylnn8wqgo"
    },
    {
      "type": "pm_response",
      "field_provenance": {
        "notes": {
          "tier": "editorial",
          "method": "llm_judge_cm_signal_v1"
        }
      },
      "notes": "Kalshi contract with an atypical Bureau of Labor Statistics resolution source; 64% compound probability despite significant negative news flow around the Platner candidacy."
    }
  ],
  "sources": [
    {
      "label": "bbc.com: Graham Platner's Platner's disastrous candidacy exposes rifts that cou",
      "url": "https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/c20ylnn8wqgo",
      "published_at": "2026-07-09T02:12:39.000Z",
      "retrieved_at": "2026-07-09T10:56:21+00:00"
    }
  ],
  "field_provenance": {
    "pm_data": "kalshi_api",
    "news_context": "exa_search",
    "editorial_judgment": "cm_signal_llm_judge"
  },
  "canonical_urls": {
    "html": "https://clearmarket.fyi/signals/platner-nominates-and-dem-wins-maine-senate-kalshi-64-2026-07-09/",
    "json": "https://clearmarket.fyi/signals/platner-nominates-and-dem-wins-maine-senate-kalshi-64-2026-07-09.json"
  },
  "license": "https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/",
  "_provenance_registry": {
    "direct": "Unaltered extraction from primary venue/source API (e.g., polymarket_clob_api, kalshi_api, BLS, FRED). Highest trust tier.",
    "mediated": "Information fetched via grounded agentic retrieval (e.g., perplexity_grounded). MUST carry source_url to the underlying primary source.",
    "derived": "Algorithmic computation from listed inputs. Chain only as fresh as the oldest input timestamp (see as_of).",
    "editorial": "Interpretive classification produced by a versioned LLM prompt template (prompts auditable in github.com/JDSource/clearmarket/prompts)."
  },
  "_provenance_canonical": "https://clearmarket.fyi/schema/provenance/v1"
}