{
  "$schema": "https://clearmarket.fyi/schema/signal/v1.json",
  "record_id": "CMSIG2026062406",
  "record_slug": "proof-of-citizenship-for-federal-voter-registration-kalshi-1-2026-06-24",
  "schema_version": "v0.2.0",
  "provenance_version": "0.2.0",
  "published_at": "2026-06-24T15:28:58.000Z",
  "semantic_title": "Proof-of-citizenship voter registration fractures against passage",
  "telemetry": "Kalshi 15%",
  "headline": "Proof of citizenship for federal voter registration: Kalshi 15%",
  "category_tag": "MOMENTUM_REPRICING",
  "secondary_tags": [],
  "detection_path": "news_cycle",
  "pre_news_classification": "concurrent",
  "target_event_id": "CM-EVT-G8CYMWNWC6",
  "target_event_slug": "kxelectionbill",
  "event_question": "Will proof of citizenship be required for federal voter registration?",
  "linked_event_ids": [],
  "primary_market": {
    "platform": "kalshi",
    "platform_market_id": "KXELECTIONBILL-27JAN01",
    "question_raw": "Will legislation that requires proof of U.S. citizenship as a condition of registering to vote in federal elections become law before Jan 1, 2027?",
    "current_price": 0.15,
    "volume_24h_usd": 46.86,
    "arbitration_model": "kalshi_staff",
    "resolution_source": "White House",
    "resolves_at": "2027-01-01T15:00:00Z"
  },
  "related_markets": [],
  "bullets": [
    "Kalshi prices only 15% on proof of citizenship becoming a federal voter registration requirement, resolving via the White House.",
    "Trump's threat to hold the housing bill hostage over the SAVE Act is not moving the market; 15% reflects the Senate vote-count obstacle reported in news coverage.",
    "A separate story (Story 14) reports Trump subsequently caved and agreed to transmit the housing bill without the SAVE Act passing, consistent with the low 15% market price.",
    "Resolves via White House confirmation of a signed law or executive order; the market is pricing the SAVE Act as a negotiating tool, not a likely legislative outcome."
  ],
  "atomic_claims": [
    {
      "type": "news_event",
      "field_provenance": {
        "story": {
          "tier": "mediated",
          "method": "exa_search",
          "source": "nbcnewyork.com",
          "source_url": "https://www.nbcnewyork.com/news/national-international/trump-housing-bill-voter-id/6517594/",
          "retrieved_at": "2026-06-27T10:02:20+00:00"
        }
      },
      "significance": {
        "threshold": 5,
        "threshold_unit": "rank",
        "passed": true,
        "reason": "surfaced in the daily Exa news-cycle scan; mechanically matched to an active kalshi market"
      },
      "story": "Trump linked his signature on a bipartisan housing bill to Congress passing the SAVE Act, which would require proof of citizenship for federal voter registration, but the bill lacks Senate votes.",
      "publisher": "nbcnewyork.com",
      "published_at": "2026-06-24T15:28:58.000Z",
      "source_url": "https://www.nbcnewyork.com/news/national-international/trump-housing-bill-voter-id/6517594/"
    },
    {
      "type": "pm_response",
      "field_provenance": {
        "notes": {
          "tier": "editorial",
          "method": "llm_judge_cm_signal_v1"
        }
      },
      "notes": "Kalshi contract on proof-of-citizenship voter registration requirement; the 15% price is consistent with the reported Senate vote-count failure and Trump's subsequent cave on the housing bill linkage."
    }
  ],
  "sources": [
    {
      "label": "nbcnewyork.com: Trump won’t sign housing bill without Congress passing voter ID, NBC",
      "url": "https://www.nbcnewyork.com/news/national-international/trump-housing-bill-voter-id/6517594/",
      "published_at": "2026-06-24T15:28:58.000Z",
      "retrieved_at": "2026-06-27T10:02:20+00:00"
    }
  ],
  "field_provenance": {
    "pm_data": "kalshi_api",
    "news_context": "exa_search",
    "editorial_judgment": "cm_signal_llm_judge"
  },
  "canonical_urls": {
    "html": "https://clearmarket.fyi/signals/proof-of-citizenship-for-federal-voter-registration-kalshi-1-2026-06-24/",
    "json": "https://clearmarket.fyi/signals/proof-of-citizenship-for-federal-voter-registration-kalshi-1-2026-06-24.json"
  },
  "license": "https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/",
  "_provenance_registry": {
    "direct": "Unaltered extraction from primary venue/source API (e.g., polymarket_clob_api, kalshi_api, BLS, FRED). Highest trust tier.",
    "mediated": "Information fetched via grounded agentic retrieval (e.g., perplexity_grounded). MUST carry source_url to the underlying primary source.",
    "derived": "Algorithmic computation from listed inputs. Chain only as fresh as the oldest input timestamp (see as_of).",
    "editorial": "Interpretive classification produced by a versioned LLM prompt template (prompts auditable in github.com/JDSource/clearmarket/prompts)."
  },
  "_provenance_canonical": "https://clearmarket.fyi/schema/provenance/v1"
}