{
  "$schema": "https://clearmarket.fyi/schema/signal/v1.json",
  "record_id": "CMSIG2026071005",
  "record_slug": "proof-of-citizenship-for-voter-registration-kalshi-12-2026-07-10",
  "schema_version": "v0.2.0",
  "provenance_version": "0.2.0",
  "published_at": "2026-07-10T02:12:41.000Z",
  "semantic_title": "Proof-of-citizenship voter registration requirement priced as unlikely",
  "telemetry": "Kalshi 12%",
  "headline": "Proof of citizenship for voter registration: Kalshi 12%",
  "category_tag": "MOMENTUM_REPRICING",
  "secondary_tags": [],
  "detection_path": "news_cycle",
  "pre_news_classification": "concurrent",
  "target_event_id": "CM-EVT-G8CYMWNWC6",
  "target_event_slug": "kxelectionbill",
  "event_question": "Will proof of citizenship be required for federal voter registration?",
  "linked_event_ids": [],
  "primary_market": {
    "platform": "kalshi",
    "platform_market_id": "KXELECTIONBILL-27JAN01",
    "question_raw": "Will legislation that requires proof of U.S. citizenship as a condition of registering to vote in federal elections become law before Jan 1, 2027?",
    "current_price": 0.12,
    "volume_24h_usd": 44.35,
    "arbitration_model": "kalshi_staff",
    "resolution_source": "White House",
    "resolves_at": "2027-01-01T15:00:00Z"
  },
  "related_markets": [],
  "bullets": [
    "The Kalshi prediction market prices only 12% on proof of citizenship becoming required for federal voter registration, resolving via the White House.",
    "Despite aggressive administration rhetoric and EAC firings, the market prices an 88% chance this specific policy requirement does not take effect.",
    "The low probability suggests markets expect legal or legislative barriers to block implementation, even as executive pressure intensifies.",
    "Resolution depends on a White House action formalizing the requirement; court challenges from states would likely be the primary settlement-delaying mechanism."
  ],
  "atomic_claims": [
    {
      "type": "news_event",
      "field_provenance": {
        "story": {
          "tier": "mediated",
          "method": "exa_search",
          "source": "straitstimes.com",
          "source_url": "https://www.straitstimes.com/world/united-states/trump-fires-election-assistance-commission-members-ahead-of-midterms",
          "retrieved_at": "2026-07-10T10:49:37+00:00"
        }
      },
      "significance": {
        "threshold": 5,
        "threshold_unit": "rank",
        "passed": true,
        "reason": "surfaced in the daily Exa news-cycle scan; mechanically matched to an active kalshi market"
      },
      "story": "Trump fired all EAC commissioners and administration officials have threatened to arrest state election officials who allow noncitizens to vote, part of a broader push to reshape federal voting rules.",
      "publisher": "straitstimes.com",
      "published_at": "2026-07-10T02:12:41.000Z",
      "source_url": "https://www.straitstimes.com/world/united-states/trump-fires-election-assistance-commission-members-ahead-of-midterms"
    },
    {
      "type": "pm_response",
      "field_provenance": {
        "notes": {
          "tier": "editorial",
          "method": "llm_judge_cm_signal_v1"
        }
      },
      "notes": "Kalshi contract resolves via the White House; at 12%, the market is clearly fading the administration's voter-roll enforcement rhetoric as a near-term policy outcome."
    }
  ],
  "sources": [
    {
      "label": "straitstimes.com: Trump fires Election Assistance Commission members ahead of midterms |",
      "url": "https://www.straitstimes.com/world/united-states/trump-fires-election-assistance-commission-members-ahead-of-midterms",
      "published_at": "2026-07-10T02:12:41.000Z",
      "retrieved_at": "2026-07-10T10:49:37+00:00"
    }
  ],
  "field_provenance": {
    "pm_data": "kalshi_api",
    "news_context": "exa_search",
    "editorial_judgment": "cm_signal_llm_judge"
  },
  "canonical_urls": {
    "html": "https://clearmarket.fyi/signals/proof-of-citizenship-for-voter-registration-kalshi-12-2026-07-10/",
    "json": "https://clearmarket.fyi/signals/proof-of-citizenship-for-voter-registration-kalshi-12-2026-07-10.json"
  },
  "license": "https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/",
  "_provenance_registry": {
    "direct": "Unaltered extraction from primary venue/source API (e.g., polymarket_clob_api, kalshi_api, BLS, FRED). Highest trust tier.",
    "mediated": "Information fetched via grounded agentic retrieval (e.g., perplexity_grounded). MUST carry source_url to the underlying primary source.",
    "derived": "Algorithmic computation from listed inputs. Chain only as fresh as the oldest input timestamp (see as_of).",
    "editorial": "Interpretive classification produced by a versioned LLM prompt template (prompts auditable in github.com/JDSource/clearmarket/prompts)."
  },
  "_provenance_canonical": "https://clearmarket.fyi/schema/provenance/v1"
}