{
  "$schema": "https://clearmarket.fyi/schema/signal/v1.json",
  "record_id": "CMSIG2026092007",
  "record_slug": "putin-out-as-russia-president-by-2026-polymarket-4-2026-09-20",
  "schema_version": "v0.2.0",
  "provenance_version": "0.2.0",
  "published_at": "2026-09-20T00:00:00.000Z",
  "semantic_title": "Putin leaving the Russian presidency by end of 2026 stays a long shot",
  "telemetry": "Polymarket 4%",
  "headline": "Putin out as Russia president by 2026: Polymarket 4%",
  "category_tag": "MOMENTUM_REPRICING",
  "secondary_tags": [],
  "detection_path": "news_cycle",
  "pre_news_classification": "concurrent",
  "status": {
    "state": "live",
    "as_of": "2026-09-20",
    "outcome": null,
    "outcome_basis": null,
    "final_price": null,
    "resolved_at": null
  },
  "target_event_id": "CM-EVT-5WJSMVBVS7",
  "target_event_slug": "putin-out-before-2027",
  "event_question": "Will Vladimir Putin no longer be President of Russia by the end of 2026?",
  "linked_event_ids": [],
  "primary_market": {
    "platform": "polymarket",
    "platform_market_id": "0x6bd56627aa21311850825edb27e53434a0e17a4f782be0086bc07f71eee00d0d",
    "question_raw": "Putin out as President of Russia by December 31, 2026?",
    "current_price": 0.04,
    "volume_24h_usd": 14543.172501,
    "arbitration_model": "uma_oracle",
    "resolves_at": "2026-12-31T18:30:00Z"
  },
  "related_markets": [],
  "bullets": [
    "Polymarket prices only a 4% chance Vladimir Putin is no longer President of Russia by end of 2026.",
    "Ukraine's largest-ever drone attack on Moscow is a significant escalation, yet the Polymarket contract shows the market treating Putin's removal as a deep tail event.",
    "The 4% pricing implies the attack, while symbolically significant, is not being read as a near-term threat to Russian political stability.",
    "Resolves via Polymarket's UMA oracle; the contract would resolve YES on any scenario in which Putin ceases to hold the presidency, including death, resignation, or removal."
  ],
  "atomic_claims": [
    {
      "type": "news_event",
      "field_provenance": {
        "story": {
          "tier": "mediated",
          "method": "exa_search",
          "source": "Al Jazeera Staff",
          "source_url": "https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2026/9/20/mass-ukrainian-drone-attack-on-moscow-kills-two-russia-says",
          "retrieved_at": "2026-09-20T12:50:04+00:00"
        }
      },
      "significance": {
        "threshold": 5,
        "threshold_unit": "rank",
        "passed": true,
        "reason": "surfaced in the daily Exa news-cycle scan; mechanically matched to an active polymarket market"
      },
      "story": "Ukraine launched over 1,000 drones at Russia in what Moscow's mayor described as the largest-ever attack, killing two people and striking a Moscow oil refinery.",
      "publisher": "Al Jazeera Staff",
      "published_at": "2026-09-20T00:00:00.000Z",
      "source_url": "https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2026/9/20/mass-ukrainian-drone-attack-on-moscow-kills-two-russia-says"
    },
    {
      "type": "pm_response",
      "field_provenance": {
        "notes": {
          "tier": "editorial",
          "method": "llm_judge_cm_signal_v1"
        }
      },
      "notes": "Polymarket contract at 4% remains unmoved in headline terms by the drone escalation; no intraday price history is available to assess any shift from this level."
    }
  ],
  "sources": [
    {
      "label": "Al Jazeera Staff: Mass Ukrainian drone attack on Moscow kills two, Russia says | Drone S",
      "url": "https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2026/9/20/mass-ukrainian-drone-attack-on-moscow-kills-two-russia-says",
      "published_at": "2026-09-20T00:00:00.000Z",
      "retrieved_at": "2026-09-20T12:50:04+00:00"
    }
  ],
  "field_provenance": {
    "pm_data": "polymarket_api",
    "news_context": "exa_search",
    "editorial_judgment": "cm_signal_llm_judge"
  },
  "canonical_urls": {
    "html": "https://clearmarket.fyi/signals/putin-out-as-russia-president-by-2026-polymarket-4-2026-09-20/",
    "json": "https://clearmarket.fyi/signals/putin-out-as-russia-president-by-2026-polymarket-4-2026-09-20.json"
  },
  "license": "https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/",
  "_provenance_registry": {
    "direct": "Unaltered extraction from primary venue/source API (e.g., polymarket_clob_api, kalshi_api, BLS, FRED). Highest trust tier.",
    "mediated": "Information fetched via grounded agentic retrieval (e.g., perplexity_grounded). MUST carry source_url to the underlying primary source.",
    "derived": "Algorithmic computation from listed inputs. Chain only as fresh as the oldest input timestamp (see as_of).",
    "editorial": "Interpretive classification produced by a versioned LLM prompt template (prompts auditable in github.com/JDSource/clearmarket/prompts)."
  },
  "_provenance_canonical": "https://clearmarket.fyi/schema/provenance/v1"
}