{
  "$schema": "https://clearmarket.fyi/schema/signal/v1.json",
  "record_id": "CMSIG2026100708",
  "record_slug": "putin-out-as-russia-president-by-end-2026-polymarket-3-2026-10-07",
  "schema_version": "v0.2.0",
  "provenance_version": "0.2.0",
  "published_at": "2026-10-07T00:00:00.000Z",
  "semantic_title": "Putin leaving the Russian presidency by year-end stays near zero",
  "telemetry": "Polymarket 3%",
  "headline": "Putin out as Russia president by end 2026: Polymarket 3%",
  "category_tag": "MOMENTUM_REPRICING",
  "secondary_tags": [],
  "detection_path": "news_cycle",
  "pre_news_classification": "concurrent",
  "status": {
    "state": "live",
    "as_of": "2026-10-21",
    "outcome": null,
    "outcome_basis": null,
    "final_price": null,
    "resolved_at": null
  },
  "target_event_id": "CM-EVT-5WJSMVBVS7",
  "target_event_slug": "putin-out-before-2027",
  "event_question": "Will Vladimir Putin no longer be President of Russia by the end of 2026?",
  "linked_event_ids": [],
  "primary_market": {
    "platform": "polymarket",
    "platform_market_id": "0x6bd56627aa21311850825edb27e53434a0e17a4f782be0086bc07f71eee00d0d",
    "question_raw": "Putin out as President of Russia by December 31, 2026?",
    "current_price": 0.03,
    "volume_24h_usd": 639014.337509,
    "arbitration_model": "uma_oracle",
    "resolves_at": "2026-12-31T18:30:00Z"
  },
  "related_markets": [],
  "bullets": [
    "Polymarket prices only 3% on Vladimir Putin no longer serving as Russian president by end of 2026, resolving via UMA oracle.",
    "A massive birthday-timed attack on Ukraine signals Putin's continued grip on power; Polymarket is fully consistent with that read at 3%.",
    "The Polymarket contract (CM-EVT-355Q75KD17) pricing 6% on Zelensky leaving the Ukrainian presidency by end-2026 shows markets see slightly more leadership risk on the Ukrainian side.",
    "Resolves via UMA oracle determination of whether Putin formally ceases to hold the Russian presidency before January 1, 2027."
  ],
  "atomic_claims": [
    {
      "type": "news_event",
      "field_provenance": {
        "story": {
          "tier": "mediated",
          "method": "exa_search",
          "source": "RFE/RL's Ukrainian Service, Current Time",
          "source_url": "https://www.rferl.org/a/ukraine-russia-zelenskyy-putin-war/33871985.html",
          "retrieved_at": "2026-10-07T15:02:04+00:00"
        }
      },
      "significance": {
        "threshold": 5,
        "threshold_unit": "rank",
        "passed": true,
        "reason": "surfaced in the daily Exa news-cycle scan; mechanically matched to an active polymarket market"
      },
      "story": "Russia launched a large-scale missile and drone assault across Ukraine on Vladimir Putin's 74th birthday, killing at least 22 people.",
      "publisher": "RFE/RL's Ukrainian Service, Current Time",
      "published_at": "2026-10-07T00:00:00.000Z",
      "source_url": "https://www.rferl.org/a/ukraine-russia-zelenskyy-putin-war/33871985.html"
    },
    {
      "type": "pm_response",
      "field_provenance": {
        "notes": {
          "tier": "editorial",
          "method": "llm_judge_cm_signal_v1"
        }
      },
      "notes": "Polymarket at 3% treats Putin's removal as a near-impossibility in 2026; the birthday strikes reinforce rather than challenge that pricing."
    }
  ],
  "sources": [
    {
      "label": "RFE/RL's Ukrainian Service, Current Time: Russia's Deadly Attacks Damage Homes Across Ukraine On Putin's Birthda",
      "url": "https://www.rferl.org/a/ukraine-russia-zelenskyy-putin-war/33871985.html",
      "published_at": "2026-10-07T00:00:00.000Z",
      "retrieved_at": "2026-10-07T15:02:04+00:00"
    }
  ],
  "field_provenance": {
    "pm_data": "polymarket_api",
    "news_context": "exa_search",
    "editorial_judgment": "cm_signal_llm_judge"
  },
  "canonical_urls": {
    "html": "https://clearmarket.fyi/signals/putin-out-as-russia-president-by-end-2026-polymarket-3-2026-10-07/",
    "json": "https://clearmarket.fyi/signals/putin-out-as-russia-president-by-end-2026-polymarket-3-2026-10-07.json"
  },
  "license": "https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/",
  "_provenance_registry": {
    "direct": "Unaltered extraction from primary venue/source API (e.g., polymarket_clob_api, kalshi_api, BLS, FRED). Highest trust tier.",
    "mediated": "Information fetched via grounded agentic retrieval (e.g., perplexity_grounded). MUST carry source_url to the underlying primary source.",
    "derived": "Algorithmic computation from listed inputs. Chain only as fresh as the oldest input timestamp (see as_of).",
    "editorial": "Interpretive classification produced by a versioned LLM prompt template (prompts auditable in github.com/JDSource/clearmarket/prompts)."
  },
  "_provenance_canonical": "https://clearmarket.fyi/schema/provenance/v1"
}