{
  "$schema": "https://clearmarket.fyi/schema/signal/v1.json",
  "record_id": "CMSIG2026070605",
  "record_slug": "reconciliation-bill-passes-in-2026-kalshi-82-2026-07-06",
  "schema_version": "v0.2.0",
  "provenance_version": "0.2.0",
  "published_at": "2026-07-06T16:51:28.000Z",
  "semantic_title": "Reconciliation passage in 2026 holds near full pricing",
  "telemetry": "Kalshi 82%",
  "headline": "Reconciliation bill passes in 2026: Kalshi 82%",
  "category_tag": "MOMENTUM_REPRICING",
  "secondary_tags": [],
  "detection_path": "news_cycle",
  "pre_news_classification": "concurrent",
  "target_event_id": "CM-EVT-1WV8R9JXH3",
  "target_event_slug": "kxreccount-27",
  "event_question": "How many reconciliation bills will be passed in 2026?",
  "linked_event_ids": [],
  "primary_market": {
    "platform": "kalshi",
    "platform_market_id": "KXRECCOUNT-27-1",
    "question_raw": "Will 1 reconciliation bills be passed in 2027?",
    "current_price": 0.82,
    "volume_24h_usd": 41,
    "arbitration_model": "kalshi_staff",
    "resolution_source": "Library of Congress",
    "resolves_at": "2027-01-02T15:00:00Z"
  },
  "related_markets": [],
  "bullets": [
    "Kalshi prediction market prices an 82% chance at least one reconciliation bill passes in 2026.",
    "Johnson's commitment to re-pass the SAVE America Act is consistent with Kalshi's high probability, though the repeated restarts highlight legislative fragility.",
    "The 18% residual probability reflects ongoing Republican intra-party friction, as dissenting GOP members publicly call for Trump to change course.",
    "Kalshi resolves via Library of Congress bill-tracking data; the contract counts bills enacted, not passed by one chamber, so Senate passage remains the critical gating step."
  ],
  "atomic_claims": [
    {
      "type": "news_event",
      "field_provenance": {
        "story": {
          "tier": "mediated",
          "method": "exa_search",
          "source": "democracydocket.com",
          "source_url": "https://www.democracydocket.com/news-alerts/mike-johnson-house-pass-donald-trump-voter-supression-save-america-act/",
          "retrieved_at": "2026-07-07T10:52:00+00:00"
        }
      },
      "significance": {
        "threshold": 5,
        "threshold_unit": "rank",
        "passed": true,
        "reason": "surfaced in the daily Exa news-cycle scan; mechanically matched to an active kalshi market"
      },
      "story": "House Speaker Mike Johnson said the House will pass the SAVE America Act again after caving to MAGA hardliners and Trump's latest demands.",
      "publisher": "democracydocket.com",
      "published_at": "2026-07-06T16:51:28.000Z",
      "source_url": "https://www.democracydocket.com/news-alerts/mike-johnson-house-pass-donald-trump-voter-supression-save-america-act/"
    },
    {
      "type": "pm_response",
      "field_provenance": {
        "notes": {
          "tier": "editorial",
          "method": "llm_judge_cm_signal_v1"
        }
      },
      "notes": "Kalshi resolves via Library of Congress records; the 82% read reflects passage expectation but not certainty given documented Senate complications."
    }
  ],
  "sources": [
    {
      "label": "democracydocket.com: Johnson says House will pass stalled SAVE America Act ‘one more time’",
      "url": "https://www.democracydocket.com/news-alerts/mike-johnson-house-pass-donald-trump-voter-supression-save-america-act/",
      "published_at": "2026-07-06T16:51:28.000Z",
      "retrieved_at": "2026-07-07T10:52:00+00:00"
    }
  ],
  "field_provenance": {
    "pm_data": "kalshi_api",
    "news_context": "exa_search",
    "editorial_judgment": "cm_signal_llm_judge"
  },
  "canonical_urls": {
    "html": "https://clearmarket.fyi/signals/reconciliation-bill-passes-in-2026-kalshi-82-2026-07-06/",
    "json": "https://clearmarket.fyi/signals/reconciliation-bill-passes-in-2026-kalshi-82-2026-07-06.json"
  },
  "license": "https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/",
  "_provenance_registry": {
    "direct": "Unaltered extraction from primary venue/source API (e.g., polymarket_clob_api, kalshi_api, BLS, FRED). Highest trust tier.",
    "mediated": "Information fetched via grounded agentic retrieval (e.g., perplexity_grounded). MUST carry source_url to the underlying primary source.",
    "derived": "Algorithmic computation from listed inputs. Chain only as fresh as the oldest input timestamp (see as_of).",
    "editorial": "Interpretive classification produced by a versioned LLM prompt template (prompts auditable in github.com/JDSource/clearmarket/prompts)."
  },
  "_provenance_canonical": "https://clearmarket.fyi/schema/provenance/v1"
}