{
  "$schema": "https://clearmarket.fyi/schema/signal/v1.json",
  "record_id": "CMSIG2026110303",
  "record_slug": "republican-fl-10-house-seat-polymarket-100-2026-11-03",
  "schema_version": "v0.2.0",
  "provenance_version": "0.2.0",
  "published_at": "2026-11-03T00:00:00.000Z",
  "semantic_title": "Republican FL-10 House win nears full pricing",
  "telemetry": "Polymarket 100%",
  "headline": "Republican FL-10 House seat: Polymarket 100%",
  "category_tag": "MOMENTUM_REPRICING",
  "secondary_tags": [],
  "detection_path": "news_cycle",
  "pre_news_classification": "concurrent",
  "status": {
    "state": "resolved",
    "as_of": "2026-11-04",
    "outcome": "YES",
    "outcome_basis": "resolution_log",
    "final_price": 1,
    "resolved_at": "2026-11-04"
  },
  "target_event_id": "CM-EVT-T5CGMYTX62",
  "target_event_slug": "fl-10-house-election-winner",
  "event_question": "Will the Republican candidate win the FL-10 House seat in 2026?",
  "linked_event_ids": [],
  "primary_market": {
    "platform": "polymarket",
    "platform_market_id": "0x92af18b5a8e041263bdf14ba26de45aec9677fa539fb95cdb637168596703b01",
    "question_raw": "Will the Democratic Party win the FL-10 House seat?",
    "current_price": 0.996,
    "volume_24h_usd": 10,
    "arbitration_model": "uma_oracle",
    "resolves_at": "2026-11-03T00:00:00Z"
  },
  "related_markets": [],
  "bullets": [
    "Polymarket prices the Republican candidate winning FL-10 at 100%, treating this seat as a certainty.",
    "The near-unanimous pricing is consistent with FL-10 being a safe Republican district unlikely to flip regardless of the broader wave environment.",
    "Contrast with the PA-12 Polymarket contract at 99% for Republicans and Delaware at-large at 1% for Democrats, showing the market drawing clear distinctions across safe seats.",
    "Resolution via UMA oracle on certified FL-10 election results; the 100% price leaves no practical room for a Democratic upset scenario in the market."
  ],
  "atomic_claims": [
    {
      "type": "news_event",
      "field_provenance": {
        "story": {
          "tier": "mediated",
          "method": "exa_search",
          "source": "abcnews.com",
          "source_url": "https://abcnews.com/Politics/live-updates/midterm-elections-2026-1-week-high-stakes-elections/?id=137578278",
          "retrieved_at": "2026-11-03T15:45:44+00:00"
        }
      },
      "significance": {
        "threshold": 5,
        "threshold_unit": "rank",
        "passed": true,
        "reason": "surfaced in the daily Exa news-cycle scan; mechanically matched to an active polymarket market"
      },
      "story": "Midterm election updates include Supreme Court denying Trump's bid to segregate California ballots, while district-level races proceed.",
      "publisher": "abcnews.com",
      "published_at": "2026-11-03T00:00:00.000Z",
      "source_url": "https://abcnews.com/Politics/live-updates/midterm-elections-2026-1-week-high-stakes-elections/?id=137578278"
    },
    {
      "type": "pm_response",
      "field_provenance": {
        "notes": {
          "tier": "editorial",
          "method": "llm_judge_cm_signal_v1"
        }
      },
      "notes": "Polymarket contract resolves via UMA oracle; at 100% the market is treating this as a formality."
    }
  ],
  "sources": [
    {
      "label": "abcnews.com: Midterm elections live updates: Supreme Court denies Trump bid to segr",
      "url": "https://abcnews.com/Politics/live-updates/midterm-elections-2026-1-week-high-stakes-elections/?id=137578278",
      "published_at": "2026-11-03T00:00:00.000Z",
      "retrieved_at": "2026-11-03T15:45:44+00:00"
    }
  ],
  "field_provenance": {
    "pm_data": "polymarket_api",
    "news_context": "exa_search",
    "editorial_judgment": "cm_signal_llm_judge"
  },
  "canonical_urls": {
    "html": "https://clearmarket.fyi/signals/republican-fl-10-house-seat-polymarket-100-2026-11-03/",
    "json": "https://clearmarket.fyi/signals/republican-fl-10-house-seat-polymarket-100-2026-11-03.json"
  },
  "license": "https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/",
  "_provenance_registry": {
    "direct": "Unaltered extraction from primary venue/source API (e.g., polymarket_clob_api, kalshi_api, BLS, FRED). Highest trust tier.",
    "mediated": "Information fetched via grounded agentic retrieval (e.g., perplexity_grounded). MUST carry source_url to the underlying primary source.",
    "derived": "Algorithmic computation from listed inputs. Chain only as fresh as the oldest input timestamp (see as_of).",
    "editorial": "Interpretive classification produced by a versioned LLM prompt template (prompts auditable in github.com/JDSource/clearmarket/prompts)."
  },
  "_provenance_canonical": "https://clearmarket.fyi/schema/provenance/v1"
}