{
  "$schema": "https://clearmarket.fyi/schema/signal/v1.json",
  "record_id": "CMSIG2026061807",
  "record_slug": "republican-wins-fl-14-house-race-polymarket-51-2026-06-18",
  "schema_version": "v0.2.0",
  "provenance_version": "0.2.0",
  "published_at": "2026-06-18T00:00:00.000Z",
  "semantic_title": "Florida 14th House race fractured at dead even pricing",
  "telemetry": "Polymarket 51%",
  "headline": "Republican wins FL-14 House race: Polymarket 51%",
  "category_tag": "MOMENTUM_REPRICING",
  "secondary_tags": [],
  "detection_path": "news_cycle",
  "pre_news_classification": "concurrent",
  "target_event_id": "CM-EVT-LPBNKVP3F9",
  "target_event_slug": "fl-14-house-election-winner",
  "event_question": "Will the Republican win the Florida 14th Congressional District House election in 2024?",
  "linked_event_ids": [],
  "primary_market": {
    "platform": "polymarket",
    "platform_market_id": "0xe3d41b3bb1f838d2dc30606cc70a1ae7eda2fc7ccf6ee2235586a6490950b8eb",
    "question_raw": "Will the Republican Party win the FL-14 House seat?",
    "current_price": 0.51,
    "arbitration_model": "uma_oracle",
    "resolves_at": "2026-11-03T00:00:00Z"
  },
  "related_markets": [],
  "bullets": [
    "The Polymarket contract on a Republican winning Florida's 14th Congressional District prices at 51%, essentially a toss-up resolving via UMA oracle.",
    "Forecaster upgrades toward Democrats are consistent with the near-even pricing, the market is not fading the Democratic momentum narrative in this specific race.",
    "Florida 14 at 51% Republican is notably lower than other Republican-held seats in the candidate list, flagging it as a genuine swing district in market pricing.",
    "Resolution is via UMA oracle on the November 2026 election result; no primary outcome affects this contract directly."
  ],
  "atomic_claims": [
    {
      "type": "news_event",
      "field_provenance": {
        "story": {
          "tier": "mediated",
          "method": "exa_search",
          "source": "newsweek.com",
          "source_url": "https://www.newsweek.com/democrats-gain-momentum-in-battle-for-congress-with-top-forecaster-12092790",
          "retrieved_at": "2026-06-21T11:13:58+00:00"
        }
      },
      "significance": {
        "threshold": 5,
        "threshold_unit": "rank",
        "passed": true,
        "reason": "surfaced in the daily Exa news-cycle scan; mechanically matched to an active polymarket market"
      },
      "story": "A top forecaster upgraded several House races toward Democrats as the party gains momentum in the battle to reclaim the House majority ahead of November 2026 midterms.",
      "publisher": "newsweek.com",
      "published_at": "2026-06-18T00:00:00.000Z",
      "source_url": "https://www.newsweek.com/democrats-gain-momentum-in-battle-for-congress-with-top-forecaster-12092790"
    },
    {
      "type": "pm_response",
      "field_provenance": {
        "notes": {
          "tier": "editorial",
          "method": "llm_judge_cm_signal_v1"
        }
      },
      "notes": "Polymarket's 51% on FL-14 is the market's clearest expression of the competitive House environment flagged by forecaster upgrades, a near-dead-heat in a seat Republicans currently hold."
    }
  ],
  "sources": [
    {
      "label": "newsweek.com: Democrats Gain Momentum in Battle for Congress with Top Forecaster - N",
      "url": "https://www.newsweek.com/democrats-gain-momentum-in-battle-for-congress-with-top-forecaster-12092790",
      "published_at": "2026-06-18T00:00:00.000Z",
      "retrieved_at": "2026-06-21T11:13:58+00:00"
    }
  ],
  "field_provenance": {
    "pm_data": "polymarket_api",
    "news_context": "exa_search",
    "editorial_judgment": "cm_signal_llm_judge"
  },
  "canonical_urls": {
    "html": "https://clearmarket.fyi/signals/republican-wins-fl-14-house-race-polymarket-51-2026-06-18/",
    "json": "https://clearmarket.fyi/signals/republican-wins-fl-14-house-race-polymarket-51-2026-06-18.json"
  },
  "license": "https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/",
  "_provenance_registry": {
    "direct": "Unaltered extraction from primary venue/source API (e.g., polymarket_clob_api, kalshi_api, BLS, FRED). Highest trust tier.",
    "mediated": "Information fetched via grounded agentic retrieval (e.g., perplexity_grounded). MUST carry source_url to the underlying primary source.",
    "derived": "Algorithmic computation from listed inputs. Chain only as fresh as the oldest input timestamp (see as_of).",
    "editorial": "Interpretive classification produced by a versioned LLM prompt template (prompts auditable in github.com/JDSource/clearmarket/prompts)."
  },
  "_provenance_canonical": "https://clearmarket.fyi/schema/provenance/v1"
}