{
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  "record_id": "CMSIG2026102708",
  "record_slug": "republican-wins-fl-27-house-seat-kalshi-67-2026-10-27",
  "schema_version": "v0.2.0",
  "provenance_version": "0.2.0",
  "published_at": "2026-10-27T00:00:00.000Z",
  "semantic_title": "FL-27 House seat stays near a coin flip as Democrats eye pickup",
  "telemetry": "Kalshi 67%",
  "headline": "Republican wins FL-27 House seat: Kalshi 67%",
  "category_tag": "MOMENTUM_REPRICING",
  "secondary_tags": [],
  "detection_path": "news_cycle",
  "pre_news_classification": "concurrent",
  "status": {
    "state": "live",
    "as_of": "2026-10-28",
    "outcome": null,
    "outcome_basis": null,
    "final_price": null,
    "resolved_at": null
  },
  "target_event_id": "CM-EVT-RTW7ZKGKR3",
  "target_event_slug": "kxhouserace-fl27-26",
  "event_question": "Will the Republican or Democratic candidate win the FL-27 House seat in the next election?",
  "linked_event_ids": [],
  "primary_market": {
    "platform": "kalshi",
    "platform_market_id": "KXHOUSERACE-FL27-26-R",
    "question_raw": "Will Republican win the House race for FL-27?",
    "current_price": 0.67,
    "volume_24h_usd": 1141.23,
    "arbitration_model": "kalshi_staff",
    "resolution_source": "Library of Congress",
    "resolves_at": "2027-01-04T17:00:00Z"
  },
  "related_markets": [],
  "bullets": [
    "The Kalshi prediction market puts 67% odds on the Republican candidate winning the FL-27 House seat, a meaningful but not dominant lead.",
    "Democratic optimism about a congressional sweep is at odds with Kalshi pricing FL-27 at only 67% Republican, making it one of the more competitive seats in the cycle.",
    "The companion Kalshi contract on Democrats winning the full House (CM-EVT-FV8MR86S63) at 91% implies FL-27 is one of the seats keeping the House competitive even in a Democratic wave.",
    "Resolves via the Library of Congress per the named resolution source following certified results after November 3."
  ],
  "atomic_claims": [
    {
      "type": "news_event",
      "field_provenance": {
        "story": {
          "tier": "mediated",
          "method": "exa_search",
          "source": "Frankie TAGGART",
          "source_url": "https://www.yahoo.com/news/politics/articles/democrats-eye-election-wins-could-014041656.html",
          "retrieved_at": "2026-10-27T13:54:00+00:00"
        }
      },
      "significance": {
        "threshold": 5,
        "threshold_unit": "rank",
        "passed": true,
        "reason": "surfaced in the daily Exa news-cycle scan; mechanically matched to an active kalshi market"
      },
      "story": "Democrats entered the final week of the midterm campaign eyeing a congressional sweep with competitive House seats including Florida's 27th district in focus.",
      "publisher": "Frankie TAGGART",
      "published_at": "2026-10-27T00:00:00.000Z",
      "source_url": "https://www.yahoo.com/news/politics/articles/democrats-eye-election-wins-could-014041656.html"
    },
    {
      "type": "pm_response",
      "field_provenance": {
        "notes": {
          "tier": "editorial",
          "method": "llm_judge_cm_signal_v1"
        }
      },
      "notes": "Kalshi at 67% flags FL-27 as a genuine swing seat, consistent with its inclusion in Democratic pickup target lists heading into Election Day."
    }
  ],
  "sources": [
    {
      "label": "Frankie TAGGART: Democrats eye election wins that could upend Trump presidency",
      "url": "https://www.yahoo.com/news/politics/articles/democrats-eye-election-wins-could-014041656.html",
      "published_at": "2026-10-27T00:00:00.000Z",
      "retrieved_at": "2026-10-27T13:54:00+00:00"
    }
  ],
  "field_provenance": {
    "pm_data": "kalshi_api",
    "news_context": "exa_search",
    "editorial_judgment": "cm_signal_llm_judge"
  },
  "canonical_urls": {
    "html": "https://clearmarket.fyi/signals/republican-wins-fl-27-house-seat-kalshi-67-2026-10-27/",
    "json": "https://clearmarket.fyi/signals/republican-wins-fl-27-house-seat-kalshi-67-2026-10-27.json"
  },
  "license": "https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/",
  "_provenance_registry": {
    "direct": "Unaltered extraction from primary venue/source API (e.g., polymarket_clob_api, kalshi_api, BLS, FRED). Highest trust tier.",
    "mediated": "Information fetched via grounded agentic retrieval (e.g., perplexity_grounded). MUST carry source_url to the underlying primary source.",
    "derived": "Algorithmic computation from listed inputs. Chain only as fresh as the oldest input timestamp (see as_of).",
    "editorial": "Interpretive classification produced by a versioned LLM prompt template (prompts auditable in github.com/JDSource/clearmarket/prompts)."
  },
  "_provenance_canonical": "https://clearmarket.fyi/schema/provenance/v1"
}