{
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  "record_id": "CMSIG2026101405",
  "record_slug": "republican-wins-georgia-senate-polymarket-4-2026-10-14",
  "schema_version": "v0.2.0",
  "provenance_version": "0.2.0",
  "published_at": "2026-10-14T00:00:00.000Z",
  "semantic_title": "Republican candidate winning Georgia Senate stays a long shot",
  "telemetry": "Polymarket 4%",
  "headline": "Republican wins Georgia Senate: Polymarket 4%",
  "category_tag": "MOMENTUM_REPRICING",
  "secondary_tags": [],
  "detection_path": "news_cycle",
  "pre_news_classification": "concurrent",
  "status": {
    "state": "live",
    "as_of": "2026-10-21",
    "outcome": null,
    "outcome_basis": null,
    "final_price": null,
    "resolved_at": null
  },
  "target_event_id": "CM-EVT-301LWVGPR3",
  "target_event_slug": "georgia-senate-election-winner",
  "event_question": "Will the Georgia Senate election be won by the Republican candidate?",
  "linked_event_ids": [],
  "primary_market": {
    "platform": "polymarket",
    "platform_market_id": "0x54e4e816cc5868e2f933c6bbc597e3313bdad382be3ecf7eaa4d8fa5c3f1a1bd",
    "question_raw": "Will the Republicans win the Georgia Senate race in 2026?",
    "current_price": 0.043,
    "volume_24h_usd": 5858.87,
    "arbitration_model": "uma_oracle"
  },
  "related_markets": [],
  "bullets": [
    "The Polymarket contract on a Republican winning the Georgia Senate seat sits at 4%, resolving via UMA oracle.",
    "Despite Trump's active campaigning in Georgia, the market assigns near-zero probability to a Republican Senate win in the state.",
    "The Kalshi contract (CM-EVT-1V0WDTXHT9) puts the same-party sweep of Georgia's Governor and Senate elections at 46%, suggesting split-ticket outcomes are the market base case.",
    "A companion Kalshi contract (CM-EVT-4DFCBXLZN6) puts Republicans holding more governorships than Democrats after midterms at 69%, showing state-level strength does not translate to the Georgia Senate race."
  ],
  "atomic_claims": [
    {
      "type": "news_event",
      "field_provenance": {
        "story": {
          "tier": "mediated",
          "method": "exa_search",
          "source": "Cecilia Nowell",
          "source_url": "https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/live/2026/oct/14/donald-trump-us-midterms-arizona-montana-politics-latest-news-updates",
          "retrieved_at": "2026-10-17T07:47:54+00:00"
        }
      },
      "significance": {
        "threshold": 5,
        "threshold_unit": "rank",
        "passed": true,
        "reason": "surfaced in the daily Exa news-cycle scan; mechanically matched to an active polymarket market"
      },
      "story": "Trump rallied Republican candidates and Democratic Super PACs poured millions into key Senate races including Georgia.",
      "publisher": "Cecilia Nowell",
      "published_at": "2026-10-14T00:00:00.000Z",
      "source_url": "https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/live/2026/oct/14/donald-trump-us-midterms-arizona-montana-politics-latest-news-updates"
    },
    {
      "type": "pm_response",
      "field_provenance": {
        "notes": {
          "tier": "editorial",
          "method": "llm_judge_cm_signal_v1"
        }
      },
      "notes": "Polymarket at 4% on a Republican Georgia Senate win is near the floor of plausible probability, the market is not moving on Trump's rally presence."
    }
  ],
  "sources": [
    {
      "label": "Cecilia Nowell: Trump tries to rally support for Republican candidates as top Super Pa",
      "url": "https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/live/2026/oct/14/donald-trump-us-midterms-arizona-montana-politics-latest-news-updates",
      "published_at": "2026-10-14T00:00:00.000Z",
      "retrieved_at": "2026-10-17T07:47:54+00:00"
    }
  ],
  "field_provenance": {
    "pm_data": "polymarket_api",
    "news_context": "exa_search",
    "editorial_judgment": "cm_signal_llm_judge"
  },
  "canonical_urls": {
    "html": "https://clearmarket.fyi/signals/republican-wins-georgia-senate-polymarket-4-2026-10-14/",
    "json": "https://clearmarket.fyi/signals/republican-wins-georgia-senate-polymarket-4-2026-10-14.json"
  },
  "license": "https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/",
  "_provenance_registry": {
    "direct": "Unaltered extraction from primary venue/source API (e.g., polymarket_clob_api, kalshi_api, BLS, FRED). Highest trust tier.",
    "mediated": "Information fetched via grounded agentic retrieval (e.g., perplexity_grounded). MUST carry source_url to the underlying primary source.",
    "derived": "Algorithmic computation from listed inputs. Chain only as fresh as the oldest input timestamp (see as_of).",
    "editorial": "Interpretive classification produced by a versioned LLM prompt template (prompts auditable in github.com/JDSource/clearmarket/prompts)."
  },
  "_provenance_canonical": "https://clearmarket.fyi/schema/provenance/v1"
}