{
  "$schema": "https://clearmarket.fyi/schema/signal/v1.json",
  "record_id": "CMSIG2026072905",
  "record_slug": "republican-wins-iowa-senate-seat-polymarket-44-2026-07-29",
  "schema_version": "v0.2.0",
  "provenance_version": "0.2.0",
  "published_at": "2026-07-29T00:00:00.000Z",
  "semantic_title": "Iowa Senate seat odds sit near 50-50 after Obama endorsement",
  "telemetry": "Polymarket 44%",
  "headline": "Republican wins Iowa Senate seat: Polymarket 44%",
  "category_tag": "MOMENTUM_REPRICING",
  "secondary_tags": [],
  "detection_path": "news_cycle",
  "pre_news_classification": "concurrent",
  "status": {
    "state": "live",
    "as_of": "2026-08-01",
    "outcome": null,
    "outcome_basis": null,
    "final_price": null,
    "resolved_at": null
  },
  "target_event_id": "CM-EVT-2X8487L8P4",
  "target_event_slug": "iowa-senate-election-winner",
  "event_question": "Will a Republican win the Iowa Senate seat in the next election?",
  "linked_event_ids": [],
  "primary_market": {
    "platform": "polymarket",
    "platform_market_id": "0xd50c016598c499fceea10a1a714e48d9b4953487fe215daeaf916068fae722f1",
    "question_raw": "Will the Democrats win the Iowa Senate race in 2026?",
    "current_price": 0.44,
    "volume_24h_usd": 1608.874544,
    "arbitration_model": "uma_oracle"
  },
  "related_markets": [],
  "bullets": [
    "The Polymarket prediction market prices a 44% chance a Republican wins the Iowa Senate seat, implying a slight lean toward Democrat Josh Turek.",
    "Obama's endorsement of Turek is consistent with the near-even Polymarket odds, confirming the race is viewed as genuinely competitive.",
    "By contrast, the Polymarket contract on Alabama's Senate seat going Republican stands at 95%, illustrating how Iowa is an outlier among contested seats.",
    "Resolution is via UMA oracle using official election results; the contract settles after the general election."
  ],
  "atomic_claims": [
    {
      "type": "news_event",
      "field_provenance": {
        "story": {
          "tier": "mediated",
          "method": "exa_search",
          "source": "apnews.com",
          "source_url": "https://apnews.com/article/obama-josh-turek-iowa-senate-571bcd5377eca160eac686f57875f663",
          "retrieved_at": "2026-07-30T10:20:48+00:00"
        }
      },
      "significance": {
        "threshold": 5,
        "threshold_unit": "rank",
        "passed": true,
        "reason": "surfaced in the daily Exa news-cycle scan; mechanically matched to an active polymarket market"
      },
      "story": "Former President Barack Obama endorsed Iowa Democrat Josh Turek in a video for his bid to flip a Republican-held US Senate seat.",
      "publisher": "apnews.com",
      "published_at": "2026-07-29T00:00:00.000Z",
      "source_url": "https://apnews.com/article/obama-josh-turek-iowa-senate-571bcd5377eca160eac686f57875f663"
    },
    {
      "type": "pm_response",
      "field_provenance": {
        "notes": {
          "tier": "editorial",
          "method": "llm_judge_cm_signal_v1"
        }
      },
      "notes": "Polymarket resolves via UMA oracle; the 44% Republican price reflects a coin-flip contest that Obama's involvement has not yet moved decisively."
    }
  ],
  "sources": [
    {
      "label": "apnews.com: Obama endorses Iowa Democrat Josh Turek for US Senate | AP News",
      "url": "https://apnews.com/article/obama-josh-turek-iowa-senate-571bcd5377eca160eac686f57875f663",
      "published_at": "2026-07-29T00:00:00.000Z",
      "retrieved_at": "2026-07-30T10:20:48+00:00"
    }
  ],
  "field_provenance": {
    "pm_data": "polymarket_api",
    "news_context": "exa_search",
    "editorial_judgment": "cm_signal_llm_judge"
  },
  "canonical_urls": {
    "html": "https://clearmarket.fyi/signals/republican-wins-iowa-senate-seat-polymarket-44-2026-07-29/",
    "json": "https://clearmarket.fyi/signals/republican-wins-iowa-senate-seat-polymarket-44-2026-07-29.json"
  },
  "license": "https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/",
  "_provenance_registry": {
    "direct": "Unaltered extraction from primary venue/source API (e.g., polymarket_clob_api, kalshi_api, BLS, FRED). Highest trust tier.",
    "mediated": "Information fetched via grounded agentic retrieval (e.g., perplexity_grounded). MUST carry source_url to the underlying primary source.",
    "derived": "Algorithmic computation from listed inputs. Chain only as fresh as the oldest input timestamp (see as_of).",
    "editorial": "Interpretive classification produced by a versioned LLM prompt template (prompts auditable in github.com/JDSource/clearmarket/prompts)."
  },
  "_provenance_canonical": "https://clearmarket.fyi/schema/provenance/v1"
}