{
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  "record_id": "CMSIG2026092306",
  "record_slug": "republicans-hold-governor-edge-after-midterms-kalshi-70-2026-09-23",
  "schema_version": "v0.2.0",
  "provenance_version": "0.2.0",
  "published_at": "2026-09-23T13:11:41.364Z",
  "semantic_title": "Republicans holding more governorships after midterms near 50%",
  "telemetry": "Kalshi 70%",
  "headline": "Republicans hold governor edge after midterms: Kalshi 70%",
  "category_tag": "MOMENTUM_REPRICING",
  "secondary_tags": [],
  "detection_path": "news_cycle",
  "pre_news_classification": "concurrent",
  "status": {
    "state": "live",
    "as_of": "2026-09-25",
    "outcome": null,
    "outcome_basis": null,
    "final_price": null,
    "resolved_at": null
  },
  "target_event_id": "CM-EVT-4DFCBXLZN6",
  "target_event_slug": "kxgovwins-27jan01",
  "event_question": "Will Republicans hold more governorships than Democrats after the midterms?",
  "linked_event_ids": [],
  "primary_market": {
    "platform": "kalshi",
    "platform_market_id": "KXGOVWINS-27JAN01-R-50",
    "question_raw": "Will the difference between the number of Republican governors and the number of Democratic governors be between -50 and -1 governors after the 2026 midterms?",
    "current_price": 0.7,
    "volume_24h_usd": 80.12,
    "arbitration_model": "kalshi_staff",
    "resolution_source": "the Statistical Review of World Energy",
    "resolves_at": "2027-04-01T15:00:00Z"
  },
  "related_markets": [],
  "bullets": [
    "The Kalshi prediction market prices a 70% probability that Republicans hold more governorships than Democrats after the 2026 midterms.",
    "The Democratic polling lead among independents is a headwind for Republicans, yet the gubernatorial map has different dynamics than the House generic ballot, limiting direct read-across.",
    "A companion Kalshi contract (CM-EVT-T5VXKJT451) prices 61% odds Republicans control at least one congressional chamber, suggesting the market sees gubernatorial and legislative outcomes as partially decoupled.",
    "Resolves via the Statistical Review of World Energy, per the named resolution source; resolution requires a certified post-election count of governor seats by party."
  ],
  "atomic_claims": [
    {
      "type": "news_event",
      "field_provenance": {
        "story": {
          "tier": "mediated",
          "method": "exa_search",
          "source": "PBS",
          "source_url": "https://www.pbs.org/newshour/politics/democrats-lead-in-new-poll-as-trump-looms-over-midterms",
          "retrieved_at": "2026-09-25T13:12:47+00:00"
        }
      },
      "significance": {
        "threshold": 5,
        "threshold_unit": "rank",
        "passed": true,
        "reason": "surfaced in the daily Exa news-cycle scan; mechanically matched to an active kalshi market"
      },
      "story": "A new poll shows Democratic congressional candidates holding a significant lead over Republicans among independents, with Trump's effort to make midterms a referendum on himself appearing to backfire.",
      "publisher": "PBS",
      "published_at": "2026-09-23T13:11:41.364Z",
      "source_url": "https://www.pbs.org/newshour/politics/democrats-lead-in-new-poll-as-trump-looms-over-midterms"
    },
    {
      "type": "pm_response",
      "field_provenance": {
        "notes": {
          "tier": "editorial",
          "method": "llm_judge_cm_signal_v1"
        }
      },
      "notes": "Kalshi resolves via the Statistical Review of World Energy source; at 70%, the market continues to price Republican gubernatorial advantage despite adverse polling for the party nationally."
    }
  ],
  "sources": [
    {
      "label": "PBS: Democrats hold midterm lead with independents breaking sharply against",
      "url": "https://www.pbs.org/newshour/politics/democrats-lead-in-new-poll-as-trump-looms-over-midterms",
      "published_at": "2026-09-23T13:11:41.364Z",
      "retrieved_at": "2026-09-25T13:12:47+00:00"
    }
  ],
  "field_provenance": {
    "pm_data": "kalshi_api",
    "news_context": "exa_search",
    "editorial_judgment": "cm_signal_llm_judge"
  },
  "canonical_urls": {
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    "json": "https://clearmarket.fyi/signals/republicans-hold-governor-edge-after-midterms-kalshi-70-2026-09-23.json"
  },
  "license": "https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/",
  "_provenance_registry": {
    "direct": "Unaltered extraction from primary venue/source API (e.g., polymarket_clob_api, kalshi_api, BLS, FRED). Highest trust tier.",
    "mediated": "Information fetched via grounded agentic retrieval (e.g., perplexity_grounded). MUST carry source_url to the underlying primary source.",
    "derived": "Algorithmic computation from listed inputs. Chain only as fresh as the oldest input timestamp (see as_of).",
    "editorial": "Interpretive classification produced by a versioned LLM prompt template (prompts auditable in github.com/JDSource/clearmarket/prompts)."
  },
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