{
  "$schema": "https://clearmarket.fyi/schema/signal/v1.json",
  "record_id": "CMSIG2026102804",
  "record_slug": "republicans-hold-more-governorships-after-midterms-kalshi-74-2026-10-28",
  "schema_version": "v0.2.0",
  "provenance_version": "0.2.0",
  "published_at": "2026-10-28T00:00:00.000Z",
  "semantic_title": "GOP gubernatorial edge after midterms stays favored at 74 percent",
  "telemetry": "Kalshi 74%",
  "headline": "Republicans hold more governorships after midterms: Kalshi 74%",
  "category_tag": "MOMENTUM_REPRICING",
  "secondary_tags": [],
  "detection_path": "news_cycle",
  "pre_news_classification": "concurrent",
  "status": {
    "state": "live",
    "as_of": "2026-10-28",
    "outcome": null,
    "outcome_basis": null,
    "final_price": null,
    "resolved_at": null
  },
  "target_event_id": "CM-EVT-4DFCBXLZN6",
  "target_event_slug": "kxgovwins-27jan01",
  "event_question": "Will Republicans hold more governorships than Democrats after the midterms?",
  "linked_event_ids": [],
  "primary_market": {
    "platform": "kalshi",
    "platform_market_id": "KXGOVWINS-27JAN01-R-50",
    "question_raw": "Will the difference between the number of Republican governors and the number of Democratic governors be between -50 and -1 governors after the 2026 midterms?",
    "current_price": 0.74,
    "volume_24h_usd": 892.45,
    "arbitration_model": "kalshi_staff",
    "resolution_source": "the Statistical Review of World Energy",
    "resolves_at": "2027-04-01T15:00:00Z"
  },
  "related_markets": [],
  "bullets": [
    "The Kalshi contract prices 74% odds that Republicans will hold more governorships than Democrats after the 2026 midterms.",
    "Despite news reports of 'GOP midterm woes,' the gubernatorial market holds meaningfully above 50%, suggesting the market is not pricing a Democratic wave on the state level.",
    "The 11-point gap between this contract (74%) and the congressional chamber control contract (63%) implies the market sees the gubernatorial map as the more reliable Republican floor.",
    "Resolves via the Statistical Review of World Energy as named source, an unusual resolution mechanic that traders should verify before sizing positions."
  ],
  "atomic_claims": [
    {
      "type": "news_event",
      "field_provenance": {
        "story": {
          "tier": "mediated",
          "method": "exa_search",
          "source": "Caroline Linton Associate Managing Editor, Politics",
          "source_url": "https://www.cbsnews.com/live-updates/2026-elections-midtems-house-senate-trump/",
          "retrieved_at": "2026-10-28T15:33:55+00:00"
        }
      },
      "significance": {
        "threshold": 5,
        "threshold_unit": "rank",
        "passed": true,
        "reason": "surfaced in the daily Exa news-cycle scan; mechanically matched to an active kalshi market"
      },
      "story": "With midterms days away, Trump is campaigning heavily to shore up Republican positions across multiple states amid reports of mounting GOP woes.",
      "publisher": "Caroline Linton Associate Managing Editor, Politics",
      "published_at": "2026-10-28T00:00:00.000Z",
      "source_url": "https://www.cbsnews.com/live-updates/2026-elections-midtems-house-senate-trump/"
    },
    {
      "type": "pm_response",
      "field_provenance": {
        "notes": {
          "tier": "editorial",
          "method": "llm_judge_cm_signal_v1"
        }
      },
      "notes": "Kalshi contract at 74% on Republican gubernatorial edge runs notably higher than the 63% on congressional chamber control, indicating divergent market views across the two battlefields."
    }
  ],
  "sources": [
    {
      "label": "Caroline Linton Associate Managing Editor, Politics: Live Updates: 2026 midterm campaigns make final push before Election D",
      "url": "https://www.cbsnews.com/live-updates/2026-elections-midtems-house-senate-trump/",
      "published_at": "2026-10-28T00:00:00.000Z",
      "retrieved_at": "2026-10-28T15:33:55+00:00"
    }
  ],
  "field_provenance": {
    "pm_data": "kalshi_api",
    "news_context": "exa_search",
    "editorial_judgment": "cm_signal_llm_judge"
  },
  "canonical_urls": {
    "html": "https://clearmarket.fyi/signals/republicans-hold-more-governorships-after-midterms-kalshi-74-2026-10-28/",
    "json": "https://clearmarket.fyi/signals/republicans-hold-more-governorships-after-midterms-kalshi-74-2026-10-28.json"
  },
  "license": "https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/",
  "_provenance_registry": {
    "direct": "Unaltered extraction from primary venue/source API (e.g., polymarket_clob_api, kalshi_api, BLS, FRED). Highest trust tier.",
    "mediated": "Information fetched via grounded agentic retrieval (e.g., perplexity_grounded). MUST carry source_url to the underlying primary source.",
    "derived": "Algorithmic computation from listed inputs. Chain only as fresh as the oldest input timestamp (see as_of).",
    "editorial": "Interpretive classification produced by a versioned LLM prompt template (prompts auditable in github.com/JDSource/clearmarket/prompts)."
  },
  "_provenance_canonical": "https://clearmarket.fyi/schema/provenance/v1"
}