{
  "$schema": "https://clearmarket.fyi/schema/signal/v1.json",
  "record_id": "CMSIG2026092906",
  "record_slug": "republicans-hold-one-chamber-after-midterms-kalshi-61-2026-09-29",
  "schema_version": "v0.2.0",
  "provenance_version": "0.2.0",
  "published_at": "2026-09-29T00:00:00.000Z",
  "semantic_title": "Republican chamber control odds stay near 60% despite poll drag",
  "telemetry": "Kalshi 61%",
  "headline": "Republicans hold one chamber after midterms: Kalshi 61%",
  "category_tag": "MOMENTUM_REPRICING",
  "secondary_tags": [],
  "detection_path": "news_cycle",
  "pre_news_classification": "concurrent",
  "status": {
    "state": "live",
    "as_of": "2026-10-01",
    "outcome": null,
    "outcome_basis": null,
    "final_price": null,
    "resolved_at": null
  },
  "target_event_id": "CM-EVT-T5VXKJT451",
  "target_event_slug": "kxbalancepowercombo-27feb",
  "event_question": "Will Republicans control at least one chamber of Congress after the 2026 midterm elections?",
  "linked_event_ids": [],
  "primary_market": {
    "platform": "kalshi",
    "platform_market_id": "KXBALANCEPOWERCOMBO-27FEB-DD",
    "question_raw": "Will House Control be Democratic AND Senate Control be Democratic for Feb 2027?",
    "current_price": 0.61,
    "volume_24h_usd": 23089.24,
    "arbitration_model": "kalshi_staff",
    "resolution_source": "Bureau of Labor Statistics",
    "resolves_at": "2027-02-01T15:00:00Z"
  },
  "related_markets": [],
  "bullets": [
    "Kalshi prices Republican control of at least one chamber at 61%, remaining modestly favored despite the reported polling headwinds.",
    "Polling showing a Democratic enthusiasm boost has not driven the Kalshi contract below 50%, so the market does not yet see a Democratic sweep as the base case.",
    "Polymarket's NC-04 House contract (CM-EVT-NWW6JR41T9) sits at 96% for the Democratic candidate, showing strong race-level pricing in a key district.",
    "Resolution requires Library of Congress certification; the gap between 61% chamber-level and 96% district-level pricing reflects House-vs-Senate split scenarios."
  ],
  "atomic_claims": [
    {
      "type": "news_event",
      "field_provenance": {
        "story": {
          "tier": "mediated",
          "method": "exa_search",
          "source": "independent.co.uk",
          "source_url": "https://www.independent.co.uk/news/world/americas/us-politics/trump-midterm-convention-democrats-lead-republicans-b3058286.html",
          "retrieved_at": "2026-10-01T07:47:27+00:00"
        }
      },
      "significance": {
        "threshold": 5,
        "threshold_unit": "rank",
        "passed": true,
        "reason": "surfaced in the daily Exa news-cycle scan; mechanically matched to an active kalshi market"
      },
      "story": "Polls found that Trump's midterm convention boosted Democratic enthusiasm, with roughly seven in ten voters citing Trump as a factor in their vote.",
      "publisher": "independent.co.uk",
      "published_at": "2026-09-29T00:00:00.000Z",
      "source_url": "https://www.independent.co.uk/news/world/americas/us-politics/trump-midterm-convention-democrats-lead-republicans-b3058286.html"
    },
    {
      "type": "pm_response",
      "field_provenance": {
        "notes": {
          "tier": "editorial",
          "method": "llm_judge_cm_signal_v1"
        }
      },
      "notes": "Kalshi holds near 61% on overall Republican chamber control; individual district Polymarket contracts show more decisive race-level pricing."
    }
  ],
  "sources": [
    {
      "label": "independent.co.uk: Trump held a midterm convention to rally Republican voters - but Democ",
      "url": "https://www.independent.co.uk/news/world/americas/us-politics/trump-midterm-convention-democrats-lead-republicans-b3058286.html",
      "published_at": "2026-09-29T00:00:00.000Z",
      "retrieved_at": "2026-10-01T07:47:27+00:00"
    }
  ],
  "field_provenance": {
    "pm_data": "kalshi_api",
    "news_context": "exa_search",
    "editorial_judgment": "cm_signal_llm_judge"
  },
  "canonical_urls": {
    "html": "https://clearmarket.fyi/signals/republicans-hold-one-chamber-after-midterms-kalshi-61-2026-09-29/",
    "json": "https://clearmarket.fyi/signals/republicans-hold-one-chamber-after-midterms-kalshi-61-2026-09-29.json"
  },
  "license": "https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/",
  "_provenance_registry": {
    "direct": "Unaltered extraction from primary venue/source API (e.g., polymarket_clob_api, kalshi_api, BLS, FRED). Highest trust tier.",
    "mediated": "Information fetched via grounded agentic retrieval (e.g., perplexity_grounded). MUST carry source_url to the underlying primary source.",
    "derived": "Algorithmic computation from listed inputs. Chain only as fresh as the oldest input timestamp (see as_of).",
    "editorial": "Interpretive classification produced by a versioned LLM prompt template (prompts auditable in github.com/JDSource/clearmarket/prompts)."
  },
  "_provenance_canonical": "https://clearmarket.fyi/schema/provenance/v1"
}