{
  "$schema": "https://clearmarket.fyi/schema/signal/v1.json",
  "record_id": "CMSIG2026110105",
  "record_slug": "republicans-win-house-2026-polymarket-95-2026-11-01",
  "schema_version": "v0.2.0",
  "provenance_version": "0.2.0",
  "published_at": "2026-11-01T00:00:00.000Z",
  "semantic_title": "Republicans heavily favored to hold the House in 2026",
  "telemetry": "Polymarket 95%",
  "headline": "Republicans win House 2026: Polymarket 95%",
  "category_tag": "PRE_EVENT_PRICING",
  "secondary_tags": [],
  "detection_path": "news_cycle",
  "pre_news_classification": "pre_news",
  "status": {
    "state": "past_due",
    "as_of": "2026-11-04",
    "outcome": null,
    "outcome_basis": null,
    "final_price": null,
    "resolved_at": null
  },
  "target_event_id": "CM-EVT-2N6T7M0T15",
  "target_event_slug": "which-party-will-win-the-house-in-2026",
  "event_question": "Will the Republican Party win control of the House of Representatives in 2026?",
  "linked_event_ids": [],
  "primary_market": {
    "platform": "polymarket",
    "platform_market_id": "0xd5d9fc47718bd553592d126b1fa5e87183d27f3936975b0c04cc0f2dec1f1bb4",
    "question_raw": "Will the Democratic Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections?",
    "current_price": 0.95,
    "volume_24h_usd": 1661663.6458480004,
    "arbitration_model": "uma_oracle",
    "resolves_at": "2026-11-03T00:00:00Z"
  },
  "related_markets": [],
  "bullets": [
    "The Polymarket contract on Republicans winning House control in 2026 sits at 95%, making Democratic hopes of a House flip a long shot.",
    "Widespread media coverage of Democratic optimism is at odds with prediction-market pricing, which strongly favors a Republican House hold.",
    "The companion Kalshi contract (CM-EVT-T5VXKJT451) at 71% for Republicans controlling at least one chamber is a weaker read, consistent with Senate uncertainty dampening the overall-chamber probability.",
    "The Polymarket Senate control contract (CM-EVT-M9WJY06T90) at 73% for one party reveals the House-Senate spread: the House is seen as far more settled than the Senate race outcome."
  ],
  "atomic_claims": [
    {
      "type": "news_event",
      "field_provenance": {
        "story": {
          "tier": "mediated",
          "method": "exa_search",
          "source": "Alexei Koseff",
          "source_url": "https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/2026/11/01/whats-stake-tuesdays-midterm-elections/",
          "retrieved_at": "2026-11-02T07:48:26+00:00"
        }
      },
      "significance": {
        "threshold": 5,
        "threshold_unit": "rank",
        "passed": true,
        "reason": "surfaced in the daily Exa news-cycle scan; mechanically matched to an active polymarket market"
      },
      "story": "With midterm elections on Tuesday, Democrats hope to take control of Congress and derail President Donald Trump's second-term agenda.",
      "publisher": "Alexei Koseff",
      "published_at": "2026-11-01T00:00:00.000Z",
      "source_url": "https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/2026/11/01/whats-stake-tuesdays-midterm-elections/"
    },
    {
      "type": "pm_response",
      "field_provenance": {
        "notes": {
          "tier": "editorial",
          "method": "llm_judge_cm_signal_v1"
        }
      },
      "notes": "Polymarket contract resolves via uma_oracle; the 95% House probability reflects a strong market consensus that runs counter to Democratic campaign optimism in media coverage."
    }
  ],
  "sources": [
    {
      "label": "Alexei Koseff: What’s at stake in Tuesday’s midterm elections? - The Washington Post",
      "url": "https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/2026/11/01/whats-stake-tuesdays-midterm-elections/",
      "published_at": "2026-11-01T00:00:00.000Z",
      "retrieved_at": "2026-11-02T07:48:26+00:00"
    }
  ],
  "field_provenance": {
    "pm_data": "polymarket_api",
    "news_context": "exa_search",
    "editorial_judgment": "cm_signal_llm_judge"
  },
  "canonical_urls": {
    "html": "https://clearmarket.fyi/signals/republicans-win-house-2026-polymarket-95-2026-11-01/",
    "json": "https://clearmarket.fyi/signals/republicans-win-house-2026-polymarket-95-2026-11-01.json"
  },
  "license": "https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/",
  "_provenance_registry": {
    "direct": "Unaltered extraction from primary venue/source API (e.g., polymarket_clob_api, kalshi_api, BLS, FRED). Highest trust tier.",
    "mediated": "Information fetched via grounded agentic retrieval (e.g., perplexity_grounded). MUST carry source_url to the underlying primary source.",
    "derived": "Algorithmic computation from listed inputs. Chain only as fresh as the oldest input timestamp (see as_of).",
    "editorial": "Interpretive classification produced by a versioned LLM prompt template (prompts auditable in github.com/JDSource/clearmarket/prompts)."
  },
  "_provenance_canonical": "https://clearmarket.fyi/schema/provenance/v1"
}